SANDERS!, Greece Lightning, and Mayo - Your 2013-14 Bucks Preview

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Coming off a successful season were they won 38 games and earned the right to get pummeled by the Miami Heat in the first round of the playoffs, the Milwaukee Bucks decided it was time for a change. More accurately, they decided going for the 8th seed was fine but decided to do it with different players. They jettisoned most of the roster in favor of more efficient and well-rounded basketball players in an attempt to become more watchable and less like they suck so bad. Unfortunately, the Eastern Conference has gotten a little better, so the road to the playoffs will be a little rougher. Let's start this Bucks preview by looking at what they did this summer.

Additions and subtractions

Subtractions
SG Monta Ellis (free agent, signed with the Dallas Mavericks)
PG Brandon Jennings (traded to the Detroit Pistons for Brandon Knight, Khris Middleton and some random big dude)
SG JJ Redick (sign-and-trade with the LA Clippers, received two second-round picks)
G/F Mike Dunleavy (free agent, signed with the Chicago Bulls)
F Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (traded to the Sacramento Kings for two second-round picks)
C Samuel Dalembert (free agent, signed with the Dallas Mavericks)
G/F Marquis Daniels (free agent)
F/C Drew Gooden (amnesty, LOL)
F/C Gustavo Ayon (waived, signed with the Atlanta Hawks)
C Joel Przybilla (free agent)
PG Ish Smith (traded to the Phoenix Suns for Caron Butler)

Additions
PG Brandon Knight (trade with Detroit Pistons)
SG OJ Mayo (free agent)
G/F Carlos Delfino (free agent)
SF Caron Butler (trade with Phoenix Suns)
C Zaza Pachulia (free agent)
G Gary Neal (free agent)
F Khris Middleton (free agent)
C Miroslav Raduljica (free agent)
PG Luke Ridnour (trade with Minnesota Timberwolves)
F Giannis Antetokounmpo (first-round pick)
G Nate Wolters (second-round pick)

That's a lot of moves.

Some dude in front of Ersan has a question

Bucks by position

Probable Starting Lineup

PG Brandon Knight
SG OJ Mayo
SF Caron Butler
PF Ersan Ilyasova
C LARRY SANDERS!

Bench
Guards: Gary Neal, Luke Ridnour, Nate Wolters, Carlos Delfino
Forwards: John Henson, Ekpe Udoh, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton
Centers: Zaza Pachulia, Miroslav Raduljica





Guards

The Bucks sent their whole 2012-13 backcourt away this offseason, and rightfully so. Brandon Jennings was clearly unhappy in Milwaukee, and wasn't progressing the way the front office expected. Monta Ellis was a no-defense, inefficient ballhog and JJ Redick couldn't fit in. Ish Smith wasn't the champion the Bucks needed.

By trading Jennings for Knight, they essentially swapped disappointing guards with the Pistons. Knight shoots the 3 well, can defend, and has had some moments (not all were good), but overall isn't a natural point guard and isn't a very efficient shooter inside the three-point line.

Pictured: meh

He does have youth on his side, and head coach Larry Drew had success turning Jeff Teague into a good NBA point guard, so the jury is still out on Knight. His backcourt mate, OJ Mayo, is a little more of a known quantity. He's also a good three-point shooter, can create his own shot, passes well, and at least early on in his career was regarded as a solid defender. He's also inconsistent and has had issues with effort on both sides of the ball. He should lead the team in scoring, but that says more about the team than it does about Mayo.

Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour both fill similar roles as solid backup combo guards that can shoot. Ridnour is an excellent midrange shooter and the better pure point guard while Neal is better behind the three-point line and better defensively. Carlos Delfino is a "three and D" guy who will play both shooting guard and small forward, but will likely miss the first couple months of the season with a foot injury. Nate Wolters probably won't play much but has a skillset similar to Neal.

Forwards

In the last couple seasons the Bucks seemed to acquire every forward possible, something that CPU teams would constantly do in NBA Live 2010 which would lead to the hilarious result of Zach Randolph or David Lee starting at small forward for opposing teams. Fortunately, the Bucks seemed to have fixed that glitch by trading Mbah a Moute and cutting Drew Gooden and now have a reasonable amount of bigs on the roster.

#NeverForget

Caron Butler's best days are behind him, but he's a fairly reliable veteran and a juicy trade asset with an expiring contract. Like Delfino, he shoots well from beyond the arc and can defend but doesn't contribute much else at this point. Middleton is an intriguing youngster with great size who is a dark horse to take the starting small forward job if Butler is washed up and Delfino takes longer than expected to recover.

Ersan Ilyasova is the starter at power forward but is not a traditional player there. He's an excellent shooter and good rebounder who doesn't do much defensively and can't create his own shot. John Henson showed flashes in his rookie year and is the future at the position, but needs to put on some weight and improve his shot selection. Ekpe Udoh is a good defender but is hilariously bad offensively and can't rebound, like, at all. He's also an expiring deal and as such is a likely trade candidate.

And that leads us to Giannis Antetokounmpo, the young rookie from Greece who has every Bucks fan excited. And they should be excited. BEHOLD:

The positives; he's fearless, has good shooting touch, is a willing passer, rebounds well, has a knack for blocking shots, possesses monstrous hands, is long, strong, and down to get the friction on. The negatives; is extremely raw, a little careless with the ball, has poor footwork, occasionally looses his man defensively, and is, like, eight years old or something. There's a ridiculously wide range of outcomes when it comes to Giannis (hashtag Greece Lightning) during his rookie season - he could be overwhelmed by the pro game and end up stuck in the D-League all year, force his way into the starting lineup and emerge as a ROY candidate, or anything in between. Nothing would shock me. But one thing he won't be is boring.

Centers

At this point last year, I wasn't even sure if LARRY SANDERS! was on the roster. His first two NBA seasons were eventful but not particularly useful. He blocked shots but fouled constantly and couldn't catch the ball. He was a bit of a hothead. After a brutal showing during summer league in 2012, it looked like he might not even make the team. But somehow, he did make the team, and I can only imagine that a mighty basketball demon possessed his soul and turned him into a defensive anchor and franchise building block. He cut down on the silly fouls while finishing second in the NBA in blocks while shooting over 50% from the field and nearly averaging a double-double. His impact went even beyond the traditional statistics, evidenced by this graph by Kirk Goldsberry that became popular after last year's Sloan Sports and Analytics Conference. It measured the field goal percentage of opposing teams while LARRY SANDERS! was on the court, juxtaposed against defensive sieve (and NBA Live "small forward") David Lee.

Hint: green is better than red

SANDERS' breakout season earned him a four-year, 44 million dollar deal, and he is now the de facto face of the franchise. He still is a bit of a hothead and could stand to improve offensively, but is one of the better young centers in the league and the Bucks aren't going anywhere without him.

Zaza Pachulia was paid too much to be the backup to SANDERS!, but is as reliable as they come and could start for a lot of NBA teams. I know nothing about Miroslav Raduljica, other than he is large and white and his name is an annoyance to spell. As long as he's better than Joel Przybilla, I'll be satisfied.

Head Coach

"Why do you keep calling me Windu?"

Former Hawks coach Larry Drew replaces the hapless Jim Boylan, who himself was the mid-season replacement for Scott Skiles. I don't know a whole lot about Drew, but he's supposedly a players coach who has some skills on both sides of the ball but isn't much for in-game adjustments. He had success in Atlanta and seems to me like the right kind of guy for the Bucks' young roster, but I also thought Larry Krystkowiak would be a good coach and I was comically wrong.

Prediction time

10 bold predictions

1. LARRY SANDERS! will win the Defensive Player of the Year award
2. Ersan Ilyasova will shoot a career-high 48% from beyond the arc and participate in the three-point contest during All-Star weekend
3. Brandon Knight will lead the team in scoring (17-ish PPG)
4. SANDERS! will lead the league in technical fouls
5. Khris Middleton will start more games at small forward than Caron Butler
6. OJ Mayo will lead the team in assists
7. Ekpe Udoh will rebound a basketball at least once
8. Giannis will have a 5x5 game (at least 5 points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals)
9. John Henson will have at least two 20/20 games
10. The Bucks will trade for Steve Nash at the trade deadline because YOLO

Where they'll finish

The Bucks finished 8th in the East last year, but that said more about the bottom of the East than it did about the Bucks. This is an entirely new roster and it's impossible to tell how the pieces will fit. On the plus side, the Bucks probably have the deepest roster of competent players in the East, and SANDERS! is a difference-maker. On the down side, they have no real superstar, and a handful of teams that finished below them in the standings got a lot better in the offseason while the Celtics are the only team that finished above them to get markedly worse.

Predictions on the Bucks are all over the place. Bill Simmons has them as a playoff team with the possibility of reaching the 6th seed. Marc Stein has them at 26th in his power rankings and NBA.com has them at 24th. I'm somewhere in the middle - I do think the Bucks are a better team talent-wise than they were last season, but I don't think it will show up in the standings. Here's how I see the East shaking out:

1. Miami Heat
2. Chicago Bulls
3. Brooklyn Nets
4. Indiana Pacers
5. New York Knicks
6. Detroit Pistons
7. Atlanta Hawks
8. Washington Wizards
9. Milwaukee Bucks
10. Cleveland Cavaliers
11. Toronto Raptors
12. Orlando Magic
13. Charlotte Bobcats
14. Boston Celtics
15. Philadelphia 76ers

40 wins is a realistic mid-point, and I could see them finishing anywhere between 7th and 12th. The depth is good enough to keep them from completely tanking, but the lack of front-end talent keeps their ceiling low. While continuing to wallow in mediocrity and chasing the #8 seed is no fun, the team should at least be fun to watch on a nightly basis, especially if Greece Lightning is involved. For better or worse, I'm along for the ride.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Jerry Eldred (@jheldred)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, and @10iskristin.

Point Guard Options for the Milwaukee Bucks

After the Atlanta Hawks matched the Milwaukee Bucks offer sheet (4 years, 32 million dollars) to restricted free agent point guard Jeff Teague, it looked almost certain that the Bucks would have to bring back Brandon Jennings either by an extension or qualifying offer. However, that may not be the case.

For those who think Brandon Jennings is now a lock to return to Bucks, guess again. As of this tweet, Bucks still looking at other PGs.
— Gery Woelfel (@GeryWoelfel) July 19, 2013

That being said, I believe the best case scenario for this drama that has developed between the two parties is a break up. With the Bucks offering Teague the offer sheet, it pretty much made it obvious to Brandon Jennings that he was plan B. Whether he feels disrespected or not, that is neither here nor there. Here's an interesting stat on Brandon Jennings that may surprise you. I shared this on the blog's Twitter account a week ago.

In the last 15 NBA seasons, only one player has shot over 1,200 shots and shot under 40% in a season. That player is Brandon Jennings.
— WI Sports Blog (@WISportsBlog) July 11, 2013

If Brandon Jennings was...let's say...more efficient, maybe the 12 million dollars a year he's asking for wouldn't be as ludicrous as it sounds coming from him?

A sign and trade makes the most sense here, however there are a few free agents the Bucks could look at. Right now the point guard depth chart for the Bucks stands at Luke Ridnour, Ish Smith, and rookie Nate Wolters. If the Bucks can get a predominate point guard, the team may look to keep Ridnour in more of a shooting guard role to back up OJ Mayo, however Luke can play both point and shooting guard.

One option on the table could be bringing back yet another former Buck. Beno Udrih is on the free agent market, a player we sent to the Orlando Magic in the ridiculous JJ Redick/Tobias Harris trade. Udrih is a very efficient point guard who actually plays remarkably better as a starter vs. a reserve.

As a starter, Beno averages 13.4 PPG, 5.2 AST, 3.3 REB, 47.9% FG%, 37.3% 3P%, and 84.8 FT%.

As a reserve, Beno averages 6.4 PPG, 2.6 AST, 1.5 REB, 44.2% FG%, 33.4% 3P%, and 79.6 FT%.

More impressively, as a starter in nine games for the Magic last year, Beno averaged 14.3 points a game, 8.1 assists, 3.6 rebounds while shooting 40.7% from the field, 53.8% from three-point range and 86.4% from the free throw line.

Now some will say that Beno won't want to come back to Milwaukee after his comments he made after the trade last year. That was really all on Scott Skiles, not the whole organization. Skiles is well known for not communicating with his players (Eddy Curry, Brandon Jennings, and Jason Kidd...just to name a few). I'm not here to compare the coaching styles of Larry Drew and Scott Skiles. All I'm saying is that how Skiles was last year wouldn't effect Beno returning to the Bucks with Larry Drew as the team's new head coach.

With the Bucks having roughly 7-8 million left in cap space, the price would have to be right to bring him back. Coincidentally, Beno made just over 7 million last year between the Bucks and Magic. I don't see any reason why he would expect much less than that considering his strong finish to the season last year. In the end, I don't think this move could end up happening unless Beno comes in at a discounted price. (4-5 million a year deal).

Moving on, there a lot of names out there that are available, but quite frankly I don't think the Bucks or any team for that matter have interest in. For example,

Baron Davis...pass.
Gilbert Arenas...pass.
Derek Fisher...pass.

Those would have been great free agent signings 5-10 years ago. Not now. But who knows. We are talking about the Bucks.

An under the radar guy out there for me is Delonte West. Besides his final two years with Boston and his second season with Cleveland, the 29 year old has never really had a predominate role with a team. He's coming off a season with Dallas with the highest PER rating of his career (15.3). West can play both guard positions. At 6-4, West plays pretty decent defense as well. At age 30, former Buck Mo Williams might end up being an option. 33 year old Keyon Dooling is looking for a team as well.

I think a signing that a lot of Bucks fans have been asking me about and wanting is Nate Robinson. Nate is coming of an impressive career year with the Chicago Bulls. We can all thank Derrick Rose for the showcase Robinson put on last year. One very misleading thing about Nate is that his style fits in well with the Bulls, who are a big team in terms of height. The Bucks are opposite. We've been very small in recent years. I fear that if Nate came to the Bucks, he would be smothered in our style of offense.

The one positive entity that surrounds Nate Robinson is that he could come at a very inexpensive price. He'd likely cost 3/4 of what Udrih would cost. And, at a low price like that, Nate could be appealing to a team at the trade deadline. Bringing Nate in at that price gives the Bucks some room to add depth at another wing position. (SG/SF Richard Hamilton, SG Gary Neal, and SF Austin Daye in particular).

Finally, Nate Robinson signed a baby at the Vegas Summer League. Moving along...

Putting the free agency madness aside, there is one sign and trade opportunity out there that could help solve this point guard dilemma. It involves a move that I actually wrote about in a previous article regarding the Bucks free agency/offseason.

The Indiana Pacers like them some Brandon Jennings. It's documented. It's what they immediately talked about once the offseason began. They originally tried to pawn off Danny Granger and his crazy contract on the Bucks in exchange for Brandon Jennings (Granger will make 14 million in 2013 coming off an injury ridden season.) However, something that caught my eye is actually something I could see happening.

The Milwaukee Bucks sign and trade point guard Brandon Jennings and a 2014 and 2015 second round pick to the Indiana Pacers for point guard George Hill.

Obviously, if the Pacers want Jennings, they don't need to be paying George Hill his contract to be a back up. Speaking of his contract, it is all too familiar with what the Bucks were willing to pay another point guard. George Hill's remaining contract with the Pacers is good for 4 years, and it pays exactly 8 million dollars annually. It's mirror image of what we offered Teague.

Now, this move is only likely if the Bucks decide not to use this season as a transitional one and they actually want to compete. All signs point to this year being transitional and the #TankForWiggins trend seems to be likely. That's why I'm just speculating here.

I think that is an important thing to remember coming out of this free agency period with the Bucks. I think it's wise to save your emotions with the Bucks when it comes to this stuff. With the way we drafted this year, I feel we are heading into the right direction. I believe that with who we brought in for free agent signings are trade chips, role players to mentor our rookies (Zaza, Delfino, and Ridnour to teach Wolters and Giannis). In the end, I think at best we will be a lottery team, regardless if Jennings comes back or not. That is unless we make a big move involving Jennings.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @Mik3_Schu, and @10iskristin.