Predicting the Brewers 2014 Pitching Staff

Since I can no longer bear to think about the sad state of affairs that the Brewers are in this season, looking ahead to 2014 sounded like a better option. I feel a little bit better about the Brewers pitching options for next season than I did before the 2013 season started, but the pitching in the farm system is still weak (especially compared to some of the farm systems that the rest of the teams in our division have). Here is how I think the pitching staff will look like to start the 2014 MLB season.

Starting rotation

Kyle Lohse – Lohse has easily been the Brewers best and most consistent starting pitcher this season. He has a 9-8 record with a 3.22 ERA in 159.1 innings pitched. He has walked 32 batters while striking out 105, and has a WHIP of 1.15. He has been worth his salary this season, but hasn’t been enough to push the Brewers into playoff contention like Brewers personnel thought he would be able to do when signing Lohse in March. It’s possible that the Brewers could trade him at or before the 2014 trade deadline if he is able to keep performing like he has this year. But, as it stands right now, he’s probably going to be the club’s 2014 opening day starter.

Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo struggled early this season, then strung together a couple of good starts, and then went back to struggling before landing on the disabled list with a hamstring injury while pitching against the Cubs (he must hate Wrigley Field). If the Brewers are going to have any chance at competing in the near future, they are going to need Gallardo to pitch like he did in 2011 and 2012. Like Lohse, there is a possibility that the Brewers could end up trading Gallardo, but I think a Yovani trade is far less likely than a Lohse trade. But who knows, the Brewers have surprised me before.

Wily Peralta – I’m going to be completely honest here; I have absolutely no idea what to expect out of Peralta next year. He’s been such a hit or miss pitcher this season that I am never quite sure what to think about him. It seems like he either has the ability to lose it early in a game and not be able to recover, or he stays out there for 8 innings and is virtually unhittable; there’s not much in-between with him. For the most part, he’s been great the second half of the season, having thrown 2 complete games for the Brewers this year (although one was against the Mariners, so does that really count?). Hopefully we can see some more consistency out of him next season, and he’ll be able to pitch well right away instead of waiting until the summer months to get on a roll.

Marco Estrada – I don’t think Estrada will last in the starting rotation much past mid-May or early-June, simply because I think we’ll see the Brewers give Jimmy Nelson or perhaps Ariel Pena a shot at the rotation (or maybe even Thornburg. Maybe). I like Estrada a lot more as a long reliever, but the Brewers seem to want to keep him in the starting rotation (he WAS our 2-starter going into spring training this season), so it will be interesting to see what happens with him next year.

Johnny Hellweg – I predict that the Brewers will give Hellweg a shot over the other young starting pitchers that they have mainly because he already has some major league experience. It probably depends on who gets called up this September and how they are able to perform, but I still think Hellweg is the frontrunner. He did struggle in his short time in the majors this year, and that’s putting it nicely. However, some of his struggles can be attributed to his defense forgetting what it means to field a ball or throw it to first base. This season in Triple-A Nashville, he’s been doing very well, he just needs to be able to get his walks under control. He has the ability to throw in the upper 90s and at the very least could probably do well out of the bullpen, so he’s a good option for the Brewers to have.

Bullpen

Tyler Thornburg – Thornburg thrived in the bullpen the first time he came up this season, but was almost equally as effective as a starter. However, now that the Brewers have elected to keep Tom Gorzelanny in the starting rotation, it almost seems like they are giving up on him as a starter and think that he might be more useful in the bullpen. He may get a few more chances to start in September, but I get the feeling that the Brewers have already decided his fate (in the bullpen).

Jim Henderson – Aside from the few appearances right after he came back from a hamstring injury, he’s been completely lights out. Barring an injury or a total and complete colossal collapse (like the Cubs in the month of October), I think he already has the 2014 closer’s role locked up.

Brandon Kintzler – Kintzler has been the most consistent Brewers reliever this season, and has been the best option to bring in during the late innings in close ballgames. He’s a solid 8th inning option, but has shown that he can be used at just about any time in any situation and get the job done.

Rob Wooten – Wooten made his major league debut on July 27th against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. He pitched a scoreless inning, and has outstanding numbers during his short time in the major leagues. So far, he has a 1-0 record with a 0.69 ERA, surrendering only eight hits and one run in 14 innings pitched. He has 9 strikeouts and has issued just 2 walks, giving him a WHIP of 0.77. It’s a small sample size, but if he can continue to pitch well, there’s no doubt that he will be back next year.

Tom Gorzelanny – Unless the Brewers decide to sign a left handed reliever this off-season (hopefully they don’t waste the money), Gorzelanny is probably going to be the only left handed pitcher that the Brewers will have next season. Chris Narveson is really the only other lefty option that they have, but he has been struggling in Nashville as of late, and I don’t think he’s going to end up making the ballclub next year – at least not right away. I don’t think the Brewers would go with a bullpen comprised of all right handed pitchers, so Gorzelanny is a good fit for the pen. He’s done a decent job while starting this season (except against the Cardinals, but that seems to be a trend amongst all of the Brewers players), but ultimately he’s probably more useful out of the bullpen.

Burke Badenhop – Badenhop’s 2013 season started out kind of rough, but he’s been much better since the month of May. He can be used in multiple situations throughout a game, and Roenicke often brings Badenhop into a game when the team could use a double play. 2014 is his last year for arbitration eligibility, and the Brewers could probably get him back at a reasonable price for the season.

John Axford – I really think that it’s in the club’s best interests to just part ways with Axford, but I don’t think they are going to do it. He still has arbitration years through the 2016 season, so they will probably bring him back hoping that he can once again “figure it out.” If he does pitch well, they can always trade him if they aren’t contending. He’s making $5MM this season, so that’s probably about what he could get in arbitration again this off-season.

All of these roster spots are pure guesses on my part, and obviously a lot of things could happen during the rest of this season and the off-season that can factor into who the Brewers decide to put on their roster. I can only hope that they don’t go out and throw another 3 year contract at another veteran starting pitcher (we don’t want you, Bronson Arroyo) because they think they’re “one player away” from making a playoff run again. Also, please, please, please don’t bring back Mike Gonzalez. I’m begging you.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Kristin Zenz (@10iskristin)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @TABrown23, and @10iskristin.

Brewers Sign Kyle Lohse

I woke up this morning (or afternoon, depending on if you view noon as “morning”) to the news that the Brewers signed starting pitcher and former Cardinal Kyle Lohse. I hoped I was dreaming, but I knew I really wasn’t. What I had feared for months had come true - with all the decent starting pitchers on the market, the Brewers would settle on the wrong one. Not even 24 hours ago, it seemed set that the Brewers would go into the 2013 season with a youth movement of sorts in the pitching staff, viewing 2013 as a minor rebuilding year. Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, Mike Fiers, Chris Narveson, and prospect Wily Peralta were set to be the rotation, at least while Mark Rogers built up his arm strength on the DL. Now.....Peralta is likely heading back to the minors for a 34-year old pitcher who’s not good.

This guy.

To the casual fan, this seems like a reasonable deal. Lohse is coming off a career year in St. Louis where he put up a 16-3 record in an impressive 211 innings with a shiny 2.86 ERA. He rarely walked hitters or gave up home runs. On the surface, a 3-year, $33 million-dollar deal for such a pitcher seems like a steal. But there’s so much more than what meets the eye. Let me explain.

As I mentioned earlier, Lohse pitched for the Cardinals not only last year, but for the last five seasons. Three of those years were solid or good, two of those seasons were awful. Prior to his Cardinals career, he was pretty much just awful. The Cardinals have a history of finding value in scrap-heap pitchers (Chris Carpenter, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Piniero, Braden Looper, etc.) and Lohse was no different. But I’m not willing to say he’s just a new pitcher and will continue his success in Milwaukee.

First, he’s 34. Signing old pitchers is not good business, as Brewers fans surely should be aware of. Second, he’s pitched the last few seasons in a pitcher-friendly ballpark that suppresses home runs. That last part is important because he’s a flyball pitcher that doesn’t strike many hitters out. Miller Park is very homer-friendly and as a result more of those fly balls that Lohse induces are likely heading over the fence. Third, advanced stats suggest that Lohse got a little lucky the last two years, with batted balls turning into outs at a higher-than-normal rate as well as a high number of baserunners stranded. While it’s possible he has some kind of skill in those areas that we don’t know about, if those numbers regress to the mean, you’re looking at a very ordinary pitcher at best. Even if he outperforms his peripherals, he’s stuck in a park that doesn’t match his skills.

The likelihood of Lohse outperforming Peralta (who’s waaaaay cheaper) this season seems low, and the gained service time from Peralta starting in the minors pales to the ultimate price the Brewers are paying. Not only is it a high monetary price tag, but the Brewers have to give up their first round pick to sign Lohse (meaning the rival Cardinals get an extra pick), since he’s a type-A free agent. That is a heavy cost for a team with a weak farm system, especially one that’s only on the periphery of a playoff race, not entrenched in it. The knee-jerk reaction may be to blame General Manager Doug Melvin, but it’s entirely likely he had no part in this. Owner Mark Attanasio had been in contact with Lohse’s agent, Scott Boras, and the possibility loomed that Attanasio would bypass Melvin (who didn’t want to give up the draft pick) to sign Lohse. This especially seems odd considering Attanasio just signed Melvin to an extension last year, and now Mark is basically undermining his General Manager to sign a player who’s not worth the price they’re paying. But Attanasio values winning at all costs, even though I doubt Lohse will contribute the wins the Brewers require of him.

All in all, Lohse will probably be okay, an average starter that eats innings but can’t put them over the top. Which is fine for most teams, but not for a team like the Brewers that’s trying to limit payroll and develop young pitchers. It’s another frustrating move from an increasingly frustrating organization. At least Melvin can’t be fired if this move goes badly....I hope.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Jerry Eldred (@jheldred)

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Mailbag: Brewers, NFL Draft, Brandon Jennings, and More

Q1: If Ryan Braun is found "guilty", who ends up in LF? - @NotFakeBenWeege

I don't think there is enough evidence against Ryan to even make a case to suspend him. His name on two pieces of paper surely isn't valid. I don't think anyone should be at all worried at the moment unless MLB releases something on a decision. Cause all of the reports saying Braun will be suspended are all false, and they were proven false by a few reliable sources. To answer your question, I think Khris Davis or Caleb Gindl would get the call to play left field for 50 games just based on how they are playing this spring.

Q2: Do you think there's a chance the Packers sign Micheal Turner and pair him with DuJuan Harris? - @davidjames2004

Five years ago, Michael Turner would have been a great free agent pick up. I don't think Ted Thompson has any interest in signing a free agent running back, especially Michael Turner. Now, if he was looking to sign Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, or Ahmad Bradshaw, then I'd be interested. I see Ted using one of the nine draft picks on a running back. Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball, and Christine Michael have been linked to the Packers for a few months now. I am in favor of having Harris paired with a veteran. I like that idea a lot. Good question.

Q3: Who do you think could be a surprise contributor for the Brewers next season? - @zdugan3

I'll answer this from both sides of the ball. First, pitching. I think Marco Estrada has himself set up for a fantastic season as the Brewers' number two pitcher. He has tremendous upside and is a big sleeper for 2013. In 2012, Estrada put up ace-esque numbers with 5.32 K/BB ratio, a 9.3 K/9 ratio, and a 2.0 BB/9 ratio. If Estrada can pitch a full season, which would be a first in his career, I think he could really turn some heads. As for offense, I think the obvious choice is Rickie Weeks. There is no way he can be as bad as he was last year, and I feel he will bounce back nicely in 2013. After the All-Star break, Weeks batted .261 with 13 home runs and 10 stolen bases.

Q4: If the Bucks let Brandon Jennings walk, who do you use cap space on? - @patrickbucky

I can assure you that the directive of the Bucks is that they will match any offer Jennings receives. The idea is to Let Ellis walk, resign Jennings and Redick and pair them with Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova. With the cap space that becomes available, the Bucks will obviously target Josh Smith, much like they did before the trade deadline. Al Jefferson, Corey Brewer, Josh Howard, and Kyle Korver all appeal to me as well. Since the Bucks are the least valuable team in the NBA, establishing a legit "Big 3" would go along way to draw a crowd at the BMO Harris Bradley Center. Drawing interest in your team is how you start to make money as a franchise. It doesn't matter how many wins you have at the end of the year, it's about who you put on the court. 

Q5: Do you think Sam Dekker will make it in the NBA? All-Star? - @L_Myers12

Too early to tell right now. He certainly has the potential. He'll be entering his second season with the Badgers next year. Let's see how that plays out before we start predicting NBA futures. He has a legit shot at Big 10 6th Man of the Year, though.  

Q6: What is the condition of Aramis Ramirez? - @packbrewfan1

The Brewers released yesterday that Aramis Ramirez will be sidelined for 7-10 days with a sprained knee. The club was trying to give Aramis more at bats in spring to quicken his slow start process so he would be hot by Opening Day. That idea backfired when Aramis jammed his knee sliding into second base. Ramirez will rest up and will test his knee out in about a week. With Ramirez aging, the signing of Alex Gonzalez looks even better now as he can provide depth at third base. 

Q7: Jenkins or Canty or neither? Position for first round pick? - @NeisesTom

I wouldn't mind either. Jenkins said he would love a Packers reunion, but I don't think Ted Thompson feels the same. Canty is scheduled to come into Green Bay to meet with the staff and have a physical. A lot of people view Canty as a high profile player that would be a perfect fit for the Packers, and the organization is well aware of that. I think the Packers understand the importance of filling the holes that developed over last season. As far as drafting in the first round, I would like to see a running back, wide receiver, or offensive line.  

Q8: Thoughts on Hiram Burgos in the Bigs this year? - @AlexTJohnson

He'll be in Triple-A for the duration of the 2013 season with a few spot starts for the Brewers throughout the year. He'll be a September call up for sure. Looking further, Burgos will make a strong case to be in the Brewers starting rotation heading into the 2014 season.

Q9: Are the Brewers improving this year? - @EthanWotruba

Improving is tough to say. I think what the Brewers are doing right now is feeling out the farm system and seeing what works and doesn't work. They are looking to have a contending team again by 2014/2015 and they are putting themselves in the perfect position to do so. They cut the salary by almost 25% and still have a viable offense with a decent bullpen and an inexperienced starting rotation. They are sitting well with player development. Pitchers and position players in the minor have strides before they are at a major league level and considered legitimate by baseball writers.

Q10: How do you feel about Kareem Abdul-Jabbar being the next coach of the Milwaukee Bucks? There's talk and he said he'd do it. - @HarrisonFtw

I would love Kareem as the head coach for the Bucks. It relates to what I talked about before about drawing a crowd. Milwaukee would love to see Kareem on the Bucks again, only this time as a coach. Granted, Jabbar has said some things about Milwaukee that were rather not nice. But, in a recent interview he expressed interest in coaching the Bucks. Therefore, I am absolutely an advocate for it. Other names that have been brought up for the coaching vacancy are Jerry Sloan, Stan Van Gundy, and Brian Shaw.

Thank you all who have participated! See you all again in April for the next Mailbag Blog!

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @Brandon_BFP, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)

The Brewers Projected Starting Rotation

A few weeks ago I took a look at the Brewers new bullpen. Had some great feedback on that, so to continue this preview of sorts of the 2013 Brewers, I will be taking a look at the projected starting rotation. As I began writing this piece, I asked my followers who they thought would be in the starting five. This created quite the stir, as my mentions blew up through the roof. It's probably the hottest subject going into Spring Training for the Brewers, as the starting line-up is pretty set in stone barring injury and the bullpen is somewhat set minus one core spot to fill in spring. Ideally, Gallardo and Fiers are likely the two pitchers that are pretty much a lock for the rotation. After them, however, is when things get mighty interesting. Out of the four other leading candidates, only one has an option to be sent to Triple-A; which makes this very simple to decide on my projected starting five.

1. Yovani Gallardo - I don't think this is a surprise to anyone that Yo will be in our rotation in 2013, and rightfully sitting at the top. In 2011, Yo had one of his best pitching years since becoming a pro as he finished 7th for National League Cy Young. Though still posting a decent record in 2012, Gallardo became very inconsistent. It took Gallardo a good portion of the season to get into a rhythm. Gallardo finished out the 2012 season going 8-1 (July 31st - September 28th) with three no-decisions and an ERA of just under 3.00 (2.9998 to be exact). If Yo can get into a rhythm to start the year out, he could easily have his eyes set on 18, 19, or 20 wins this up coming season. And, any of this three win counts would be a career high (17 wins in 2011).

2. Mike Fiers - Barring an extremely bad spring, Fiers more than proved himself last season to be a starter in the Brewers' rotation. And, as a rookie last year, he is likely to get better this year. A fatigued arm made him slow down towards the end of last season, but in my eyes that was to be expected as a rookie. Last year, he lead the National League in lowest ERA for about three months or so. I would expect Fiers to go between 160-170 innings this year and easily having 150+ strikeouts to add to his resume. I'll go as far as to say his ERA will lower significantly. The good thing about Fiers is that even if he does can to start the year, he does have an option left to be sent down to the minors to tweak any issues that could arise.

3. Marco Estrada - Above I mentioned consistency and rhythm with Gallardo. The same goes for Estrada, if not more importantly than Gallardo. On April 21st, Estrada moved to the rotation to take over for Chris Narveson. He didn't get his first win until August 21st. Granted, he had eleven no decisions mixed in with his 0-5 start, but nevertheless the Brewers cant afford to have a stretch like that in 2013. As a full time starter this year, I would expect Estrada to pitch about 180 innings this season, with a strikeout total of about 170. In 138 innings in 2012, he accumulated 143 strikeouts. Estrada has to come off strong to start the year to have a consistent season as a full time pitcher in this very young and in-experienced rotation.

4. Chris Narveson - I don't think I am the only one who is very concerned for the bottom of the rotation. Narveson is my first worry. It has already come through the Brewers news wire that Narveson is "100% ready to go and cleared to pitch with no restrictions in Spring Training". Not to compare football to baseball or apples to oranges, but Packers' Jerel Worthy recently had a "bruised knee" and then had ACL reconstruction surgery a week later with Dr. James Andrews. Narveson is coming back from rotator cuff surgery on his throwing arm. Besides having Tommy Johns, it is the most difficult surgery to come back from as a pitcher. I would imagine regardless of what percentage of ready Narveson is, he is going to have some kind of innings limit this year. Depending on how his production and record is at the All Star break, I wouldn't be surprised if they shut him down then, and replace him with a young arm in the minors. The thing to remember is that the Brewers organization takes extra care of their pitchers.

5. Mark Rogers - Rounding out the bottom of the order will be Mark Rogers. Rogers made it to only 39 innings pitched before the Brewers shut him down with precautionary intentions. I would be surprised if Rogers went more than 100 innings this year. He too could be on the same path as Narveson where he gets shut down at the All Star break. Rogers is another healthy year away from being a regular starter in our rotation without any innings restrictions. Luckily, the Brewers have young, talented arms that will fill in nicely for our pitchers who might get shut down.

I can think of three starters in the minors that will be on the outside looking in and are thirsty for their chance for a spot in the Brewers' rotation. First and foremost, the first pitcher to have dibs on a spot has to be Wily Peralta. I think for him to start in the minors to start 2013 is a fantastic idea simply because he still has a few things to work on before he embarks on full time status. Control issues and fatigue are his two main concerns. Giving him half the season in Nashville will give him enough time to work out his kinks to make him fully available for a call up at the All Star break. The second pitcher that comes to mind is Tyler Thornburg. Thornburg has a chance to be called up first out of all the pitchers in our minors because he can serve as a starter or he can fill in the bullpen if need be. Thornburg could use the time in the minors as well. He needs to develop better locations on his fastball when behind in counts, which will improve his 8 homeruns in 22 innings pitched ratio he had last year. Finally, top pitching prospect Hiram Burgos has a chance to make an appearance this season. Say Thornburg and Peralta are already up for Narveson and Rogers and someone needs to hit the DL, Burgos would likely be the guy we would call up unless we look to spot start someone in our bullpen like Tom Gorzelanny. Nonetheless, regardless of how our rotation pans out, the Brewers are a few steps ahead of the game for fill ins and replacements.



Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @Brandon_BFP, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)