Three Things To Watch This Spring For The Brewers

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As pitchers and catchers report to camp for the Milwaukee Brewers, many questions remain unanswered. Although the progression of Spring Training will provide clarity to these questions that arose during the offseason, here are a few things to watch during this Spring Training for The Crew.

1. Who's on first? Who's on second?

There will be major competition to two positions throughout spring as there is a three way (maybe even a four way) battle at for a two-man platoon of first base and a two-man battle for playing time at second base.

Juan Francisco will be joined by either Mark Reynolds or Lyle Overbay on the Opening Day 25 man roster once the dust settles from Spring Training. Both Reynolds and Overbay were signed on minor league deals with invites to major league spring training to duke it out for a starting first base position. Unless there is an injury, I don't see how Lyle Overbay makes the 25 man roster. I really think this one may be locked up before spring training even begins. Could a name like Sean Halton or Hunter Morris emerge as a candidate as well? I'd say yes, but there's a reason why the Brewers went out and signed Reynolds and Overbay in the first place.

As for second base, either Rickie Weeks or Scooter Gennett will be starting at second base on Opening Day while the other will ride the bench and enjoy some sunflower seeds and Gatorade. No matter who starts and who doesn't on Opening Day, though, this will be a platoon just like first base. Who ever plays and who doesn't will ultimately reflect on the pitching match-up and obviously who's swinging the hot bat and who's not. Earlier in the offseason, Ron Roenicke implied that Scooter Gennett was the favorite to be the starting second baseman heading into the 2014 season, but all of that can change with a hot spring by the recently married Rickie Weeks.


2. Who will take over the lead off duties?

The Brewers have an extremely large void at the lead off spot in the batting order now that Norichika Aoki is gone as he was traded to the Royals earlier this offseason for south-paw pitcher Will Smith. The plus about Aoki is that he always found a way to get on base. Infield singles, bunting, hit by pitches, walking...he found a way to get on. Aoki also lead the entire league in at bats per strikeout at 14.9. In order to replicate the same offensive statistics as the Brewers did last year, they will need to be careful on who they put in that role.

Because of his speed, the obvious candidate that comes to mind for some would be Carlos Gomez. He had a break out year last season and is set up to have an even bigger one this year. That being said, Carlos is not known for being patient at the plate and tends to strike out more often than not. Granted he set personal records in hits (152), batting average (.284), on base % (.338), stolen bases (40), and walks (37) last season, he also set a personal record in strikeouts (146). I personally think he's better suited batting in the two-hole behind the lead-off hitter or in the 6th spot in the order if his power stroke returns. His placement depends on who else is in the lineup that day.

The most realistic candidate for the leadoff spot is Jean Segura. He's got about the same amount of speed as Carlos Gomez. He offers the same attributes and Nori Aoki did as a lead off hitter. Segura's on base percentage of .329 is right on cue with the league average (.329). Segura and Aoki have the same exact RC/9 (runs created per 9 innings/27 outs). Basically, if you took nine Jean Seguras or nine Nori Aokis and put them in a lineup, they would produce 4.8 runs per game. They both have near identical offensive win % (Jean is .543, Nori is .545) Just like RC/9, if you have nine of either player, you would win 54% of your games. One of my favorite advanced stats to look at for a lead off hitter is total average. You find that by adding up total bases, hit by pitches, walks, and stolen bases (subtract caught stealing) and divide that by subtracting hits from at bats and then adding caught stealing and ground in to double players (Total Bases + HBP + BB + SB - CS) / (AB - H + CS + GIDP). By doing that, you'll find that Jean Segura beats out Nori Aoki's .660 total average with a .699 total average of his own.

(Note: Scooter Gennett has a lot to work on before he can even be considered as a lead off hitter.)

My quick projected lineup for opening day:

(Assuming LHP Mike Minor is Atlanta's Opening Day Starter)

1. Jean Segura
2. Carlos Gomez
3. Ryan Braun
4. Aramis Ramirez
5. Mark Reynolds
6. Jonathon Lucroy
7. Rickie Weeks
8. Khris Davis
9. Yovani Gallardo

(Assuming RHP Kris Medlen is Atlanta's Opening Day Starter)

1. Jean Segura
2. Scooter Gennett
3. Ryan Braun
4. Aramis Ramirez
5. Jonathon Lucroy
6. Carlos Gomez
7. Juan Francisco
8. Khris Davis
9. Yovani Gallardo


3. Who will round out the final spots of the bullpen?

The bullpen has between four to five spots already filled. You'd have to assume that Jim Henderson, Francisco Rodriguez, Brandon Kintzler, Tom Gorzelanny, and Will Smith all have bullpen spots secured. That being said, there are about five more guys available for the Brewers to pick from to fill the final two spots.

Tyler Thornburg - With the signing of Matt Garza, Tyler Thornburg was unfortunately bumped from the starting rotation. He could still make the team, but he'll have to settle for a bullpen role. If he has a strong spring and the Brewers think he's more valuable in the Brewers bullpen rather in the Sounds starting rotation, he could take one of the final spots.

Rob Wooten - We got to see Rob for the first time last season. He produced a respectable 3-1 record, 3.90 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 27.2 innings pitched. He has good control and movement on his low-90s fastball. He makes a case to make the bullpen.

Alfredo Figaro - The flamethrower could find his way back into the bullpen if the Brewers feel they need his arm back in there. I, however, feel Figaro will be DFA'd when a spot for Mark Reynolds needs to be cleared.

Michael Blazek - Acquired from the Cardinals last season in which we sent them John Axford, some say Michael Blazek is John Axford 2.0. Big arm with closer potential. He'll definitely get a serious look.

Photo: brewers.com

Wei-Chung Wang - A Rule 5 Draft pick, Wang (right) would have to stay on the Brewers' 25 man roster for the entire season. Otherwise, he'd be sent back to the Pirates unless the Brewers and Pirates work out some sort of deal. Wang will be given a look this spring, but it's going to be difficult for him to stay on the team when he's never pitched passed rookie ball. He may end up becoming a trade chip if he pitches well.

Outside looking in: Donovan Hand, Jimmy Nelson, Zach Duke, Michael Olmsted.

Hopefully this gets everyone even more excited for Brewers baseball! 43 days until Opening Day. 43 days.


Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Packers, Brewers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live in-game commentary, breaking news, rumors, previews, and post game discussion. Follow the entire writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, and @10iskristin

"Into the Maw of Hell", or "the Brewers' First Base Options"

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The Brewers entered the offseason with something of a gaping hole at first base, and after a long off-season, it appears they will enter the 2014 season with something of a gaping hole at first base. There are certainly guys on the roster who can stand at first base (including one whose body is capable of filling a gaping hole), but whether or not they can do so at a replacement level is a whole 'nother ball of bats. Let's size up their options.

Juan Francisco

Juan slowly comes to a frightening conclusion; there is no glove.

Francisco was acquired from the Atlanta Braves midway through last season after it became apparent that Alex Gonzalez and Yuniesky Betancourt just weren't ready to compete at a Major League level. Fat Juan had never played first base before and watching him learn a new position on the fly was kind of like watching a three-legged dog try to use a skateboard (so, simultaneously hilarious and sad). Despite his many shortcomings, Francisco remains an intriguing player due to his ludicrous power. He clocked 13 dingers in just 270 plate appearances as a Brewer while also drastically improving his walk rate. While he isn't currently a good player, the Brewers certainly see something in him and hope they can develop him into something. 

Pros

 - homers

 - dingers
 - tacos

 - taters 

 - moar walks

 - youth
 - not Yuni

 - unintentional comedy

Cons

 - strikes out a lot 

 - can't hit lefties

 - can't field 

 - strikes out a lot

 - Tom Haudricourt hates him

 - fat

 - strikes out a lot

Mark Reynolds

The ball has already reached the catchers' glove and subsequently been thrown back to the pitcher

Reynolds was signed to a minor-league deal last week with a near-guarantee to make the opening-day roster. A seven-year MLB veteran, Reynolds is kind of the right-handed version of Francisco, at least offensively. Hilarious power, draws some walks, can't make much contact. Unlike Francisco, Reynolds can somewhat competently play first base (sort of). Chances are, Reynolds will platoon with Fat Juan at first base, which really makes you question the meaning of life.

Pros

 - power

 - walks

 - not Yuni

 - um

 - that's it

Cons

 - strikeouts

 - former Diamondback

 - can't hit righties anyone

 - bad 

Lyle Ooooooooverbay

Overbay was signed to a minor-league deal on Monday. Overbay also represents one of my favorite Brewers memories. It was May 10th, 2005, and it was the first Brewers game I ever attended. They were playing the Phillies. Down 2-0 in the bottom of the first, Overbay came to the plate with two on and two out. The entire stadium made an "O" shape with their arms while yelling "OOOOOOOOOOOOO". Then Lyle sent the first pitch he saw from Vincente Padilla to the moon. The Brewers went on to win 8-5. It was the best. It was also nine years ago, and Overbay is not an immortal being incapable of aging. 

Pros
 - some power
 - some walks
 - hits righties
 - not Yuni

Cons
 - old 
 - boring
 - can't hit lefties
 - bad defense
 - former Diamondback

Sean Halton

uh

Halton is a former 13th-round pick who came up late last year to serve as a platoon mate for Francisco. Halton had some moments but wasn't very good, which basically encapsulates the Brewers' first base situation overall. Like everyone else listed here, Halton isn't a good fielder and strikes out a lot. There isn't anything in his minor league numbers to suggest anything more than a part-time or bench player, and he hit lefties worse than righties last year (admittedly in a small sample) so it's unclear if he's even an acceptable platoon option.

Pros
 - seems like a cool dude
 - better at baseball than me or you
 - not Yuni
 - welp

Cons
 - looks like a member of Nickelback
 - probably likes Nickelback
 - bad defense
 - bad offense

Hunter Morris

Morris warrants mention as the token prospect of the group. He had a shot at making the 2013 opening day roster after injuries to Corey Hart and Mat Gamel, but floundered in Spring Training and had a poor year in AAA. Morris has tons of power, isn't a good defender (at least not yet), and has trouble consistently making contact. I'm sensing a theme here. 

Pros
 - young
 - power
 - improving walk rate
 - not Yuni

Cons
 - hit .247 with a 97 wRC+ in a hitter's paradise
 - strikeouts
 - just look at the dudes the Brewers play at first over him

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Jerry Eldred (@jheldred)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Packers, Brewers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live in-game commentary, breaking news, rumors, previews, and post game discussion. Follow the entire writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, and@10iskristin

Brewers' Remaining First Base Options

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The Winter Meetings have come to an end and the Brewers left Orlando with their tails between their legs after losing out on the bid for free agent Corey Hart who landed with the Mariners. The team was constantly checking in on Ike Davis from the Mets and Logan Morrison of the Marlins, who was eventually moved to the Mariners.

Now the team must figure out what direction they will go between now until the start to Spring Training and eventually leading up to Opening Day. Do they pick from the scraps remaining in the free agent market? Do they attempt to make a trade without giving up major parts of our farm system? Or, do they stick with what we have currently? I'll take a look at every option available...as painful as it may be.

Free Agent Market


Mark Reynolds

Mark is probably what most Brewers fans want at first base if they are fans who crave another power hitter. He's the most powerful right handed bat left on the market, but for every homerun he would hit for the Brewers he'll strike out twenty five times. A platoon with Juan Francisco would guarantee an aneurysm from Tom Haudricourt on Twitter on a daily basis. And, honestly, I don't think Mark Reynolds is a good option at all. His career slash line is .233/.339/.464 and averages 180 strikeouts a year.

Defensively, he would be a solid addition to provide depth not only at first base but third base as well. He's had three times the playing time at third base than first base, but he has played just fine at first. He holds a 99 Fielding % at first and a 92.8 Fielding % at third.

He honestly hasn't had a season to write home about since 2009, and even then it was just "meh". That's if you are like me and don't measure someone's season by home runs and RBI. Overall, I don't see the Brewers bringing in Mark Reynolds because for the money they'll have to fork over won't be worth the production he will give the team. He's young at the age of 30, but with the rapid decline in his play recently, you'd think he's 40.


Michael Young

Sources: #Brewers interested in Michael Young to play 1B. #Dodgers, #Rockies also in mix. #Nationals involved early, exploring others now.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 19, 2013

When I first heard about the Brewers having interest in Michael Young, I honestly wasn't too excited about it. It is one of those things that makes sense, but wouldn't even be a thought if there were better options available. This is the case with Michael Young.

He holds a pretty respectable career slash line of .300/.346/.441. He's not a huge power hitter. He's just your average hitter and gets on base. He could play any position in the infield, so depth wise he'd be a great addition. For first base specifically, he's played 111 career games there (out of 1,900+ total career games).

The Brewers are also looking at Michael Young because of his veteran leadership (see: #LohseLeadership). He's a 7-time All-Star, a gold glove winner, and has post-season experience. He would be this year's Mark Kotsay or Jerry Hairston Jr.


Jeff Baker

You guys ready for this? As I said the other day on Twitter, when Jeff Baker is the best free agent first basemen on the market, you might have a problem. I originally said this as a joke, but the more I looked at his statistics last year with Texas, I warmed up to the idea of Baker platooning with Francisco. Baker actually would be a great signing and wouldn't cost Milwaukee too much. First of all, Baker is only 32 years old. He's an ultra utility man. He can play first, second, and third base as well as the corner outfield positions.

Last year with Texas, he slashed a .279/.360/.545 143 OPS+ in 74 games played. Call me crazy, but there may be something there. Those are the best numbers he's put up in his career. Also, before Jeff Baker landed on the disabled list with a thumb injury from high-fiving a teammate, Jeff Baker was hitting .317/.391/.695 (1.086 OPS). Just saying. 


Yuniesky Betancourt

Never mind.


Other names available that I know the Brewers have no interest in is obviously Kendrys Morales because we would lose our draft pick if we sign him. Casey Kotchman is awful. Lyle Overbay and Carlos Pena are old. So, yeah.

Trade


Ike Davis

We've seen this for weeks now. The Mets and Brewers are/were trying to work out a trade but the Brewers don't want to sacrifice any young pitching, which is smart on Melvin's part. Trading for Ike Davis is a crap shoot. He had an atrocious season last year, at least it would appear on paper he did. But, what if I told you it wasn't the entire season? I did some research and what I found out was kind of surprising.

Ike Davis 1st Half: (63 games) .165/.255/.250, 25 BB, 73 K Ike Davis 2nd Half: (40 games) .286/.449/.505, 32 BB, 28 K
— WI Sports Blog (@WISportsBlog) December 14, 2013

What this shows exactly is that Ike Davis was sent down to the minor leagues after his horrific start to the 2013 season. His second half numbers show his production when he was called back up to the majors. Did he figure something out while in the minors? Statistics support that theory. Lower strikeouts, high walk rate, and getting on base more. He was clearly seeing the ball better. Melvin sees something in this guy and I think a change of scenery would help Davis.


Justin Smoak

Now that the Mariners have acquired every first baseman in the league, they obviously don't need Justin Smoak anymore. Justin Smoak is a switch hitter, but so is Cesar Izturis. Smoak is a far better hitter batting left handed vs. right handed.

A lot of people say Smoak is broken and can't be fixed. I really can't argue that because his stats are pretty bad, but I will say there was a huge improvement last year from years before.


In 2012, Justin Smoak (in 132 games) hit .217/.290/.364, 85 OPS+, .242 BABIP, 49 BB, 111 SO, -0.2 WAR.

In 2013, Justin Smoak (in 131 games) hit .238/.334/.412, 113 OPS+, .278 BABIP, 64 BB, 119 SO, +1.1 WAR.

The one downfall about Smoak is that he's only a first baseman and provides absolutely no depth at any other position. That is obviously something that will factor into who Doug Melvin wants to target.


C.J. Cron

Not sure if everyone remembers, but the Angels signed Albert Pujols to a contract where he's their first baseman until he's 42 years old. So, obviously you'd have to imagine the Angels would be willing to deal Cron. Since the Angels are already wheeling and dealing, the Brewer may want to at least kick a tire or two.

This is not a move where Cron would be starting right away. The only way the Brewers make this trade is if they are dead set on having an internal option (see below) platoon with Juan Francisco. A move for Cron would also mean they have all but given up on Hunter Morris, which already seems like they are heading down that road as it is.


Adam Dunn

No.


Other names that are out there are Mitch Moreland and Kyle Blanks. Both of these guys will be tough to pry from their teams as they both are highly valued. The Rangers can always use Moreland in a DH role with Fielder at first base now and the Padres like Blanks as first base/outfield depth.

Internal Options


Juan Francisco

Doug Melvin said that unless things change, Juan Francisco is slated to be the starting first baseman for the Brewers in 2014. But he also mentioned he's looking into other options (Michael Young, Ike Davis, etc.). Juan will be something to watch this year. He's been playing well in the Dominican Winter League. If he has a sharp spring, I think we might see a nice turnaround for Juan. He's been an experiment that I hope the Brewers staff can fix and repair. He also provides depth at third base.


Hunter Morris/Sean Halton/Jason Rogers

Doug Melvin also said that these three will be in the mix as possible depth for first base. Out of the three, Sean Halton makes the most sense. If the team was confident in Hunter Morris he would have been called up already and Jason Rogers hasn't played passed Double-A ball yet. As scary as it sounds, we may end up settling for a Francisco/Halton platoon.


Rickie Weeks?

"Go home, Andrew. You're drunk."

If I were to pick an option from each category, I'd go with Jeff Baker from the free agents just because he's a right handed bat who had a lot of under the radar success last year. Trade, I have to go with Ike Davis. I really think he figured things out after his demotion last year. Internally, it's tough to say because I don't like any of it. I suppose Halton is the way to go but I think Weeks should give it a shot. It all remains to be seen.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Packers, Brewers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live in-game commentary, breaking news, rumors, previews, and post game discussion. Follow the entire writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @10iskristin, and @JoeWiscoSports.