The Key to Aaron Rodgers' Success

From 2010-2012, Aaron Rodgers has submitted three of the best seasons by any NFL QB ever to put on a helmet. Rodgers' average passer rating for those seasons is 107.8, which is slightly higher than his NFL leading career average of 104.9. Passer rating is not the end of quarterback judgment (Chad Pennington has a higher career passer rating than Brett Favre for example) but it does provide a consistent snapshot of performance. Additionally, the Packers have had a different leading receiver in each of the past three seasons 2010 – Greg Jennings, 2011 – Jordy Nelson and 2012 – Randall Cobb. While not unusual, three leading receivers in three years does show off Rodgers' ability to take the favorable match-ups and not focus on one playmaker. However, the aerial attack is dependent on having a consistent group of receivers available each game who are on the same page as Rodgers reading defenses and running timing routes. Beginning in 2010, Rodgers has had to go through several different stretches in which integral parts of his receiving corps missed games and/or played through injuries. Each time, Rodgers eventually found a grove and got back on track but needed some time to adjust.

2010 – Without struggle, there is no progress

When Jermichael Finley emerged at the tail end of the 2009 season, including a breakout game against Arizona in the playoffs in 2009, Mike McCarthy spent the offseason gearing the offense around Finley’s ability to create mismatches in the middle of opposing defenses. The new attack worked reasonably well for the first four game of the season. Rodgers averaged a passer rating of 96.8 and totaled 8 TDs against 5 interceptions.  In week 5 against the Washington Redskins, Finley when down early in the game with a meniscus tear and ended up missing the rest of the season. Over the course of the next four games Rodgers passer rating dipped to 76.2 and threw 4 TD and 4 INT, YIKES! After that dismal stretch though Rodgers adjusted and went on to submit one of the more incredible runs in recent memory to the tune of a 117.8 passer rating, 26 TDs and 4 INT over 11 games leading the Packers to the Super Bowl 45 Championship.

2011 – The KING

Picking up where he left off in 2010, and now with a fully healthy receiving corps Rodgers had 37 TDs, a 125.2 passer rating and only 5 INT through the first 12 games of the season. Starting in week 12 however, Greg Jennings was hobbled by a knee injury and ended up missing the last three weeks of the regular season. During Jennings' absence, Rodgers struggled in a loss at Kansas City posting his worst passer rating of the season at 80.1 with only 1 TD. Needing only one week to adjust, Rodgers scorched the Bears for 5 TDs and a 142.7 rating the following game. When Jennings returned in the playoffs in the division round against the Giants, the offense was back out of sync and Rodgers tallied only a 78.5 rating leading to a loss and massive disappointment for what had been an otherwise fantastic season.

2012 – Reign on the Top

The offense was seemingly out of sorts all year juggling different players in and out of the lineup. Second year player Randall Cobb gained a more prominent role in the offense, including lining up in the backfield and taking hand-offs. However in week 2 against the Bears, Cobb took a hard hit to the shoulder on an inside run and appeared to get a stinger. After that scare, McCarthy was reluctant to go back to running Cobb between the tackles and shied away from that formation. Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson were both in about out of the lineup during parts of the season, Jennings for an extended period and Nelson in and out of the lineup for 5 different games. Rodgers' efficiency again fluctuated with the consistency of his receivers. Cycling between 100+ ratings (weeks 4-7 and 15-17) when he’d had time to prepare, on the flip side his rating dipped below 90 (weeks 2-3 and 12-14) when injuries affected which receivers lined up each game.

The Verdict

The heart of the McCarthy and Rodgers offensive attack has been identifying favorable match-ups, then relying on Rodgers' pinpoint accuracy and timing with the receivers. It should not come as a surprise that an offense predicated on recognition and timing bogs down when main components are in and out of the lineup. Interestingly enough, Rodgers' output does not seem contingent on one player, as evident by slumps (might not even be considered slumps for nearly any other NFL QB) when any one of his top targets leaves a game or misses time with injury. Rather, Rodgers has shown the ability to readjust his attack once he has a week or two of practice and game planning with a consistent group of receivers.

On one hand it seems too simplistic to boil down Rodgers' success to injuries. Injuries are part of the game after all and the Packers have had their fair share over the past few seasons while still making the playoffs. But certainly keeping a consistent group of core receivers on the field every week will go a long way toward defining the success Rodgers and the Packers have this season. A more reliable defense and the threat of run game would also help, but that is a story for another day.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Neal Olson (@olewr7)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @TABrown23, and @10iskristin.

Packers Needs By Position: Offense

With NFL free agency and the draft nearing, I decided to look at the Packers’ roster and break down where
upgrades are needed, and how big those needs are. While GM Ted Thompson doesn’t use free agency as a
primary way of acquiring players, he’s shown a willingness to fill significant needs with free agents for the right
price (Charles Woodson, Ryan Pickett, Cedric Benson, Jeff Saturday). With mock drafts being plentiful this
time of year, I didn’t include any specific prospects that the Packers may target, as Thompson drafts are a little
unpredictable and he’s the kind of GM that prefers to draft the best player available. So without further ado, let’s
break down the offense.

Quarterback

•   Aaron Rodgers
•   Graham Harrell
•   BJ Coleman

The Packers are clearly set at the top at this position. Fans wring their hands at the thought of Harrell having to
see time if Rodgers is hurt, but frankly we don’t really know what he is. There’s not really much information to
be gleaned from a handful of preseason performances (some good, some bad) and scant regular season
snaps. No one knows Harrell better than the team, and they’ve been committed to him as the backup. That
pretty much tells me all I need to know. Coleman is a strong­-armed project who’ll need to make some big
strides to even make the regular season roster, much less usurp Harrell.

Could they upgrade at backup QB? Sure. But I don’t think the upgrade is really worth paying someone like Matt
Cassel or Jason Campbell a few million dollars when the money could be better spent extending Rodgers or
Raji. They could hypothetically draft someone, but they spent a pick on Coleman in 2012 and they have more
pressing needs elsewhere. Need: Low

Aaron Rodgers and a sandwich.

Running Back

•   Alex Green
•   DeJuan Harris
•   James Starks
•   Cedric Benson (FA)
•   Ryan Grant (FA)
•   Brandon Saine

It feels like this position has been a black hole forever. All of these guys have shown at least glimpses at some
point, but it’s hard to commit to any of them. Benson and Grant are probably gone, and rightfully so. Saine is
redundant with Green around, and Starks looks like he’s regressed. Harris closed out the season really well,
and is probably a lock to return. Green isn’t great at anything but decent at everything, and the team could do
worse if he’s the third back. Other than those two, I don’t see any of these guys returning.

Steven Jackson and Ahmad Bradshaw are high­ profile free agents, but Jackson has a lot of miles on him and
Bradshaw has chronic foot problems. Reggie Bush is an intriguing option, but is likely to be overpaid and
defines the word “inconsistent”. Rashard Mendenhall and Shonn Greene are awful. Unless DeAngelo Williams
is cut by the Panthers, none of the free agents are either good fits or worth what they’ll be paid. The draft is fairly
deep with talented backs, and I’d rather the team draft a couple guys in the middle round than spend big
bucks on an aging player. Either way, the team needs to at least find someone to platoon with Harris
Need: High

Fullback

•   John Kuhn

Whatever.
Need: Low

Wide Receiver

•   Greg Jennings (FA)
•   Jordy Nelson
•   James Jones
•   Randall Cobb
•   Jarrett Boykin
•   Jeremy Ross
•   Donald Driver (Retired)

The team loses Driver and likely Jennings at the position, but are still pretty much set. That’s not to say they
won’t miss Jennings’ route running and big play ability, but the trio of Nelson, Jones, and Cobb is good enough to get them to the promised land. Boykin is a strange case in that he’s pretty much a late­career version of
Driver; not fast or particularly adept at getting separation, but has great hands, is a willing blocker, and runs
routes well enough. Ross made some big plays as a returner (and on very bad one), and could very well take
over the returning duties from Cobb full­ time.

This is a ludicrously good free agent crop at wide receiver, but short of bringing back Jennings it seems highly
unlikely the Packers will sign anyone. Ted Thompson has a history of bringing in tons of undrafted free agent
types, and I wouldn’t be against using a mid­ to late­ round pick on a receiver. Anything else seems like folly.
Need: Low

Tight End

•   Jermichael Finley
•   Andrew Quarless
•   DJ Williams
•   Ryan Taylor
•   Tom Crabtree
•   Brandon Bostick

Finley is a lightening rod for fan hatred, but in all reality he’s an average tight end. He has some big ­play ability
and can get open, but has bad hands and his blocking is below average. Defenses devote a lot of attention to
him due to his ability, which presents some additional value. There’s been rumors for months that he’ll be cut,
but unless the team finds an upgrade it’s probably a bad idea. None of the backups are starting material.
Crabtree and Williams can block a little but both have awful hands (even worse than Finley, believe it or not).
Quarless can’t stay on the field. Taylor is a great blocker but isn’t much of an athlete. Bostick is alive, I guess.

The free agency class is fairly deep. Jared Cook is going to get paid in a big way. Tony Gonzalez will either
retire or return to Atlanta. Martellus Bennett and Delanie Walker are Jermichael Finley’s spirit brothers. Dallas
Clark is done. Brandon Myers, Dustin Keller, and Fred Davis are all pretty interesting. Davis and Keller are good receivers that have some injury concerns. Myers had a great year in Oakland and is a terrific blocker with good
hands, and due to the free agent depth could be had at a good price. He’s the only guy I’d be willing to actively
pursue, most everyone else is very flawed or will cost too much. Like running back, the draft pool is deep and a
contributor could easily be found in the early­ to mid ­rounds.
Need: Medium

Offensive Tackle

•   Marshall Newhouse
•   Bryan Bulaga
•   Derek Sherrod
•   Andrew Datko
•   Don Barclay
•   Kevin Hughes

This is a hard position to evaluate. Newhouse is pretty average but is cheap and is getting better, if only
marginally so. Bulaga is pretty good (aside from the Seattle nightmare) but is coming off an injury, and Sherrod
is a total wild card who is also recovering from injury. Barclay filled in admirably but has a long way to go as a
pass blocker. Datko is a development guy. None of the starters are bad, but none have shown real dominance
either.

The free agent class has some whoppers. Jake Long, Sebastian Vollmer, Eric Winston, and Andre Smith are
all franchise tackles or close to it. Jermon Bushrod, Phil Loadholt, Sam Baker, Gosder Cherilus, Bryant
McKinnie, and Ryan Harris are solid starters, but if I’m spending money on this position it would have to be a
significant upgrade. Long and Vollmer are intriguing to me and I would fully support spending money on either
one, as both are big upgrades and are young and talented enough to be worth it. Once again, the draft is deep
at tackle and the second and third rounds should be loaded with starting ­level talent. It seems more likely
Thompson will target players in the draft but a splurge on a free agent wouldn’t be an awful plan either.
Need: Medium

Offensive Guard/Center

•   TJ Lang
•   Josh Sitton
•   Evan Dietrich­ Smith
•   Greg Van Roten
•   Garth Gerhart
•   Joe Gibbs (?!)

Unlike offensive tackle, guard and center are both fairly set. Sitton and Lang are both Pro Bowl ­level players,
and Dietrich­ Smith is solid at center. Depth is an issue, though EDS, Lang, and Roten are all versatile players.
The free agent class is decent, but I wouldn’t really consider any of them. Ted generally drafts a couple bodies a
year and was able to find EDS, Barclay, and Roten as UFAs, so that seems like the most likely route to finding
depth. Need: Low

Part 2, defense is being worked on as we speak. Stay tuned for that.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Jerry Eldred (@jheldred)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu, @jheldred, @B_Toom_3, and @olewr7. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)

Packers 7 Round Mock Draft 1.0

This is my Mock Draft 1.0 for the Packers. I should have another one after the NFL Scouting Combine to get a better idea on what direction the Packers will go in. By then, there should be some cuts and trades. Ted Thompson will likely do a little bit of radio during that time as well where he could hint a few things. Until then, we can only follow the news and do our own research, investigating, and speculation as to who Green Bay will take in the 2013 NFL Draft. Here's what I think initially.

Round 1 Pick 26: Jonathan Cooper, G/C, North Carolina - The Packers had major problems at center after letting Scott Wells walk away, so they'll have to address that area this spring. Jeff Saturday didn't hold up as a replacement and was benched mid-season and later announced his retirement as Evan Dietrich-Smith took over at center for the remainder of the season. Cooper played an important role in North Carolina's running game, which averaged 193.8 yards per game, the highest per game average since 1994. Cooper has excellent agility, demonstrating the ability to quickly get to the second level and block on the move. Ted Thompson will like Jonathan Cooper's versatility, as the North Carolina product can play all three interior positions.

Photo: ESPN

Round 2 Pick 55: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington - A lot of people have Trufant going in the first round. I think otherwise. It's not that I don't think he's good enough to be a first round pick. It's just that it will be one of those things where he will get lost in the shuffle. Desmond Trufant is younger brother of Marcus Trufant (Seahawks) and Isaiah Trufant (Jets). It's pretty much been his destiny to join the NFL since he committed to Washington. Rob Rang says "He (Desmond) has the fluidity and straight-line speed to handle coverage duties and has proven ball skills (five career interceptions). To improve his standing with scouts, Trufant will need to show continued improvement as an open field tackler." With news coming out from the Packers that Tramon Williams will have to compete for a spot on next year's depth chart at cornerback. Trufant would give Williams a run for his money, and spot.

Round 3 Pick 88: Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall - I think we all know the reasoning for this pick. With Donald Driver pondering retirement and Greg Jennings putting his home in De Pere, Wisconsin up for sale, it looks like the Packers will need to look to add a wide receiver in the draft. Dobson accumulated 2,398 yards and 24 touchdowns. Aaron has a good reputation as a leader on and off the field, a good work ethic according to his coaches as well. He possesses good height and bulk to play the position. Speed is not the best but it's definitely good. He has deceptive speed as he uses long strides to get down the field and stretch the defense vertically. Finally, his excellent hands that would rate as elite in this year's draft.

Round 4 Pick 119: Gerald Hodges, OLB, Penn State - Hopefully I'm not the only one who doesn't want Erik Walden back on the Packers next year. If the Packers cut him, there would be a void at the line backer position. In the 4th round, Gerald Hodges would be a steal for the Packers and he could honestly still be on the board. Hodges seeks out ball carriers and delivers a physical pop upon contact. He has above average athleticism for the position, showing the range to make plays all over the field and the agility to avoid blocks and quickly arrive to the play.

Photo: Zimbio

Round 5 Pick 152: Stepfan Taylor, RB, Stanford - It's evident that the Packers need to figure out the running game and make it relevant again. James Starks has yet to prove himself. Cedric Benson will likely be gone next year, as will Ryan Grant. Alex Green and DuJuan Harris are our only two semi legitimate running backs, but neither of them strike me as premiere backs to lead a running game. Stepfan Taylor could bring that leadership to the Packers. He is well-built with a thick, powerful lower half. He commits quickly to the hole and possesses great initial burst to clear it before it collapses. He doesn't shy away from contact, and keeps his feet churning on impact. He forces his weight forward through the hole and on contact, and is able to grind out the extra half-yard falling down. He protects the ball well through traffic, and exhibits awareness to shift the ball to his outside hand prior to engaging defenders.

Round 6 Pick 182: Chris Gragg, TE, Arkansas - There's a chance that Jermichael Finley could be cut this offseason to preserve some cap room. The Packers have some depth at tight end, but no one is a stand out as the leader. Chris Gragg may not be a big household name going into the draft, he has the potential to be a team's top option at tight end. In terms of his blocking, he uses his hands well and extends his arms with a good base, and does a solid job of sealing the edge for backs. However, he will really get noticed by scouts for his ability to catch the ball and make plays down the field. Gets off the line really quickly and does a good job of making plays after the catch. Big target who can play in-line as a tight end, out wide as a receiver, or in the backfield as a fullback.

Round 7 Pick 216: Eric Martin, DE, Nebraska - It wouldn't hurt the Packers to look for defensive line help. Jerel Worthy had knee surgery a few weeks ago, Raji was a little banged up last year, and C.J. Wilson needs someone to compliment him better. Dane Brugler writes: "Martin uses his long arms well to rip past blockers, sticking his foot in the ground and exploding to the play. Martin is a little tight-jointed, but has the quick feet to drop and cover in space, making plays away from the line of scrimmage. He plays the game with a physical attitude and arrives to the ballcarrier with a nasty demeanor, making him a tough player to contain."

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @Brandon_BFP, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)

NFL Draft: Packers Offseason Needs

Another Green Bay Packers football season has come and gone and our beloved green and gold fell short of the super bowl once again. While the year certainly had its highlights, one can’t really help but feel a bit disappointed in the overall result of the season. The team’s Super Bowl championship just two years ago and the fantastic play from Aaron Rodgers at the quarterback position have led to very high expectations for cheese-heads everywhere and hopes of tasting the super bowl again each year. The 2012 squad was good, but was certainly not without flaws. Below I list the three biggest positional needs that the Packers need to address if they hope to get back to the Super Bowl in 2014.

Photo: Sports Illustrated

Running Back. The team thought it had something special with the acquisition of Cedric Benson just prior to the start of the 2012 NFL season. Benson was coming off back to back 1,000 yard seasons and immediately became the most experienced and talented running back on the roster the moment the Packers signed him. While he wasn’t spectacular, the Packers certainly had a more consistent, threatening rushing attack in the weeks prior to his injury. Once Benson went down, the trio of Alex Green, James Starks, and Dujaun Harris was less than impressive. The team tried to add some spark with the late season signing of Ryan Grant and while he wasn’t terrible, he also doesn’t look to be a long term solution to the Packers’ running problems. I think that Ted Thompson needs to throw in the towel on an aging Benson and invest in a running back with one of his first two picks in April’s draft. Alabama’s Eddie Lacy (right), North Carolina’s Giovani Bernard, and Wisconsin’s Montee Ball project to be the top three backs in this year’s class. I think it would be wise of Thompson to set his sights on getting one of these three in order to establish a running future in Green Bay.  As a lifelong Badger fan, I am also spearheading the “Montee to Green Bay” campaign if anyone would like to hop on that bandwagon with me.

Offensive Line. Aaron Rodgers spent way too much time on his back last season. In fact, he was sacked 51 times, the most in the NFL during the regular season. While I know many fans like to place part of the blame on Rodgers himself for holding on to the ball too long, the bottom line is that more often than not, he did not have the time he needed to find an open receiver down field. I truly believe that Josh Sitton is one of the best guards in football and I don’t think T.J. Lang is very far behind. Bryan Bulaga was drafted to be the left tackle of the future but the team seems set on keeping him on the right side going forward. I believe those three men are capable in those positions, however I am not even close to convinced that Marshall Newhouse and Evan Dietrich-Smith are going to be better than someone Thompson could find in the top five rounds of the upcoming draft. I think some serious consideration needs to go into replacing these two guys in an effort to better project Rodgers in the future.

Photo: Fan Nation

Tight End. Jermichael Finley is no doubt one of the most talented tight ends in football. He is not, however, one of the best tight ends in football. Many may disagree with this, but to me, consistency must factor into rating a player at this level. Finley simply disappears far too often when the team needs to rely on him to be a presence in the passing game. Yes, he drops the ball a lot, but to me it is more a matter of consistently making plays. This is something that I have not seen much of when looking at Finley over the past two seasons. I think the team needs to cut ties with this reportedly disgruntled under-performer and move forward with a tight end from the 2013 draft class.

Some might wonder why I don’t feel that any part of the defense ranks among the top three positional needs on my list. While I don’t feel that the Packers’ defense is elite, I believe that they made some significant steps in that direction last offseason. I think this unit can certainly be elite with the players that it currently has on the roster. I am excited about the futures of Casey Hayward, Nick Perry, and Jerel Worthy and I am confident that Thompson will add some quality depth in coming drafts. I think that the current defensive unit needs some time to grow and mature, and hopefully stay healthy, before we can start looking to replace them.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Joe Norton (@JoeP_Norton)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @Brandon_BFP, @SMahon2Go. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)