Predicting the Brewers 2014 Pitching Staff

Since I can no longer bear to think about the sad state of affairs that the Brewers are in this season, looking ahead to 2014 sounded like a better option. I feel a little bit better about the Brewers pitching options for next season than I did before the 2013 season started, but the pitching in the farm system is still weak (especially compared to some of the farm systems that the rest of the teams in our division have). Here is how I think the pitching staff will look like to start the 2014 MLB season.

Starting rotation

Kyle Lohse – Lohse has easily been the Brewers best and most consistent starting pitcher this season. He has a 9-8 record with a 3.22 ERA in 159.1 innings pitched. He has walked 32 batters while striking out 105, and has a WHIP of 1.15. He has been worth his salary this season, but hasn’t been enough to push the Brewers into playoff contention like Brewers personnel thought he would be able to do when signing Lohse in March. It’s possible that the Brewers could trade him at or before the 2014 trade deadline if he is able to keep performing like he has this year. But, as it stands right now, he’s probably going to be the club’s 2014 opening day starter.

Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo struggled early this season, then strung together a couple of good starts, and then went back to struggling before landing on the disabled list with a hamstring injury while pitching against the Cubs (he must hate Wrigley Field). If the Brewers are going to have any chance at competing in the near future, they are going to need Gallardo to pitch like he did in 2011 and 2012. Like Lohse, there is a possibility that the Brewers could end up trading Gallardo, but I think a Yovani trade is far less likely than a Lohse trade. But who knows, the Brewers have surprised me before.

Wily Peralta – I’m going to be completely honest here; I have absolutely no idea what to expect out of Peralta next year. He’s been such a hit or miss pitcher this season that I am never quite sure what to think about him. It seems like he either has the ability to lose it early in a game and not be able to recover, or he stays out there for 8 innings and is virtually unhittable; there’s not much in-between with him. For the most part, he’s been great the second half of the season, having thrown 2 complete games for the Brewers this year (although one was against the Mariners, so does that really count?). Hopefully we can see some more consistency out of him next season, and he’ll be able to pitch well right away instead of waiting until the summer months to get on a roll.

Marco Estrada – I don’t think Estrada will last in the starting rotation much past mid-May or early-June, simply because I think we’ll see the Brewers give Jimmy Nelson or perhaps Ariel Pena a shot at the rotation (or maybe even Thornburg. Maybe). I like Estrada a lot more as a long reliever, but the Brewers seem to want to keep him in the starting rotation (he WAS our 2-starter going into spring training this season), so it will be interesting to see what happens with him next year.

Johnny Hellweg – I predict that the Brewers will give Hellweg a shot over the other young starting pitchers that they have mainly because he already has some major league experience. It probably depends on who gets called up this September and how they are able to perform, but I still think Hellweg is the frontrunner. He did struggle in his short time in the majors this year, and that’s putting it nicely. However, some of his struggles can be attributed to his defense forgetting what it means to field a ball or throw it to first base. This season in Triple-A Nashville, he’s been doing very well, he just needs to be able to get his walks under control. He has the ability to throw in the upper 90s and at the very least could probably do well out of the bullpen, so he’s a good option for the Brewers to have.

Bullpen

Tyler Thornburg – Thornburg thrived in the bullpen the first time he came up this season, but was almost equally as effective as a starter. However, now that the Brewers have elected to keep Tom Gorzelanny in the starting rotation, it almost seems like they are giving up on him as a starter and think that he might be more useful in the bullpen. He may get a few more chances to start in September, but I get the feeling that the Brewers have already decided his fate (in the bullpen).

Jim Henderson – Aside from the few appearances right after he came back from a hamstring injury, he’s been completely lights out. Barring an injury or a total and complete colossal collapse (like the Cubs in the month of October), I think he already has the 2014 closer’s role locked up.

Brandon Kintzler – Kintzler has been the most consistent Brewers reliever this season, and has been the best option to bring in during the late innings in close ballgames. He’s a solid 8th inning option, but has shown that he can be used at just about any time in any situation and get the job done.

Rob Wooten – Wooten made his major league debut on July 27th against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. He pitched a scoreless inning, and has outstanding numbers during his short time in the major leagues. So far, he has a 1-0 record with a 0.69 ERA, surrendering only eight hits and one run in 14 innings pitched. He has 9 strikeouts and has issued just 2 walks, giving him a WHIP of 0.77. It’s a small sample size, but if he can continue to pitch well, there’s no doubt that he will be back next year.

Tom Gorzelanny – Unless the Brewers decide to sign a left handed reliever this off-season (hopefully they don’t waste the money), Gorzelanny is probably going to be the only left handed pitcher that the Brewers will have next season. Chris Narveson is really the only other lefty option that they have, but he has been struggling in Nashville as of late, and I don’t think he’s going to end up making the ballclub next year – at least not right away. I don’t think the Brewers would go with a bullpen comprised of all right handed pitchers, so Gorzelanny is a good fit for the pen. He’s done a decent job while starting this season (except against the Cardinals, but that seems to be a trend amongst all of the Brewers players), but ultimately he’s probably more useful out of the bullpen.

Burke Badenhop – Badenhop’s 2013 season started out kind of rough, but he’s been much better since the month of May. He can be used in multiple situations throughout a game, and Roenicke often brings Badenhop into a game when the team could use a double play. 2014 is his last year for arbitration eligibility, and the Brewers could probably get him back at a reasonable price for the season.

John Axford – I really think that it’s in the club’s best interests to just part ways with Axford, but I don’t think they are going to do it. He still has arbitration years through the 2016 season, so they will probably bring him back hoping that he can once again “figure it out.” If he does pitch well, they can always trade him if they aren’t contending. He’s making $5MM this season, so that’s probably about what he could get in arbitration again this off-season.

All of these roster spots are pure guesses on my part, and obviously a lot of things could happen during the rest of this season and the off-season that can factor into who the Brewers decide to put on their roster. I can only hope that they don’t go out and throw another 3 year contract at another veteran starting pitcher (we don’t want you, Bronson Arroyo) because they think they’re “one player away” from making a playoff run again. Also, please, please, please don’t bring back Mike Gonzalez. I’m begging you.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Kristin Zenz (@10iskristin)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @TABrown23, and @10iskristin.

Who SHOULD the Brewers Move, and Who WILL They Move at the Deadline?

This season has indeed been disappointing to us all as Brewers fans, with a horrible win-loss record and the news of our beloved Ryan Braun out for the remainder of the season due to a PED suspension. But let’s not hang our hats on the season and call it a complete disappointment just yet. Remember last year when many Brewers fan didn’t want to part with Zack Greinke, holding on to a glimmer of hope that the team would be able to retain him in the offseason? Well, had they not traded Greinke, they still would not have signed him (the Dodgers were determined to win that battle) and we would not have the impressive Jean Segura leading our team, and the entire national league, in hits this season.

I think that this season can still yield some success for the Brewers, if Doug Melvin can make the right moves and acquire some promising pieces for the future. I like the move that sent Francisco Rodriguez to Baltimore for Nicky Delmonico last week. Giving up K-Rod, a guy that wasn’t even on our roster until mid May, for a top 5 prospect on any other team is a good deal in my eyes. But I think that there are still a few more potential moves that could be made to bring the Brewers some more talent that could benefit the team down the road. Below I take a look at the players that could be on the trading block and whether I think they SHOULD be traded, along with whether I believe they WILL be dealt. 

Michael Gonzalez – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes. WILL HE BE DEALT? YES

Gonzalez was a sought after piece in the offseason after posting an impressive 3.03 ERA in 2012 while allowing just 2 home runs. The Braves were a possible trade partner for Gonzalez but that changed when they acquired left hander Scott Downs from the Angles on Monday. Possible suitors remain however, as plenty of playoff contending teams could benefit from the services of a capable lefty like Gonzalez. The return might not be great, however, given Gonzalez has struggled at times this year and he is only signed through the end of the season.

John Axford – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? No. WILL HE BE DEALT? No

Axford has certainly had his ups and downs the past two seasons, but no one can forget his lights out season in 2011, and he is still a fairly young, capable late inning reliever. After struggling early on in the season, Axford ripped of a streak of 23 consecutive appearances without allowing a run, trying a Brewers franchise record. In addition to the impressive streak, the Ax-Man had his ERA was all the way down to 3.50 before allowing 2 earned runs against the Rockies on Sunday afternoon. I think it would be best for the Brewers to retain Axford to pair with Jim Henderson as the focal point of the bullpen moving forward.

Jim Henderson – SHOULD HE BE DEALTH? No. WILL HE BE DEALT? No

I feel that the Brewers should retain Henderson for the same reasons I think Axford needs to stay. He is a capable, fairly young late inning reliever who is signed to an affordable contract and has impressed in the opportunities he’s been given in a Brewers uniform. His ERA currently sits at an impressive 2.09 on the year and he has 12 saves in 15 chances. He is a bit of a feel good story as well, after enduring nearly 10 years in the minor leagues before earning a chance with the crew last season. Unless someone offers something Melvin can’t turn down, I do not think the Brewers will or should explore trade possibilities for Henderson.

Aramis Ramirez – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes. WILL HE BE DEALT? No.
 
This one is tough. A healthy Ramirez could be a very attractive trade chip for teams looking for a bat capable of driving in runs and a solid glove at third base. The holdup here is that Rammy has only played in a handful of games this season, it seems, and is progressing slowly in his recovery from a banged up left knee. Reports Tuesday morning said he tested the knee during batting practice on Monday, but has no idea when he will be ready to return to the lineup. I am still on the side of the fence saying to trade Ramirez for any valuable piece you can get, because I just don’t see him doing much for the club in the remainder of this season or next year. He will be 36 and in the final year of his contract in 2014, a season in which I don’t much expect the Brewers to be contenders. I think it would be wise of Melvin to try and move him, however I just don’t see it happening at this point.

Kyle Lohse – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes.  WILL HE BE DEALT? No.

I was not a happy camper when I heard that the Brewers signed Lohse to a three year, $33 Million contract on March 25th. I personally didn’t expect the team to contend this season and would have preferred to save the money and retain the first round pick we were forced to give up for signing him. That being said, I think that mistake can be rectified if Melvin can swing him for a prospect or two at the deadline. Lohse will turn 35 before next season but still provides value as a number two or three starter. He is off to a very good start this year, his ERA sitting at 3.22, and has shown no signs of slowing down. Again, I don’t expect the team to contend in 2014, so getting someone of value for Lohse seems like the best option here. However, I don’t see Melvin throwing in the towel just yet on 2014 and I feel that he considers Lohse a valuable piece to the team’s possible success moving forward. I don’t see him moving, unless someone offers a deal Doug can’t turn down.  

Yovani Gallardo – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? No. WILL HE BE DEALT? No.

Gallardo is signed through 2014, on a very team friendly deal considering he is the team’s number one starter. It has been rumored that several teams have been interested in the 27 year old, the Diamondbacks among them. I believe the major holdup here is that Gallardo isn’t pitching to his full potential, at just 8-9 with a 4.88 ERA on the year,  and wouldn’t bring the type of return that he is truly worth if Melvin decided to move him. Gallardo has been a Brewer his entire career, and I would like to see him remain a Brewer. I think the best thing to do would be to hold onto Yo at least until his value rises again. I simply do not see Melvin moving him for something less than what he is worth, which is all that he would get at this point. 

Nori Aoki – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes. WILL HE BE DEALT? No.

Everyone loves Nori, myself included, but I really believe that he needs to go. The Brewers have long been out of the running this season and I don’t expect them to be contenders again during Aoki’s contract. He is only signed through 2014 and Logan Schafer is knocking on the door. I think the crew could get good value here and open a spot for a budding star in Schafer. Plenty of teams would love to have Nori’s bat in their lineup and glove in their outfield. I believe Doug would be wise to try his best to move him, however I simply don’t see it happening at this point.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Joseph Norton (@JoeP_Norton)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @TABrown23, and @10iskristin.

Brewers First Half Report Card: The Bullpen

To wrap up the mid-season grading of the Milwaukee Brewers, below is how the bullpen ranks up. Unlike last year, the bullpen has actually been a bright spot for the Brewers this season. Minus a few hiccups here and there, the bullpen has been a dominate force the National League. Coming out of the All-Star break, the Brewers bullpen ranks 3rd in the NL in ERA. With that, here we go.

Tyler Thornburg – A

Thornburg has only thrown 13.1 innings this season, but he has been very useful in his short time in the big leagues. He has compiled a 1.35 ERA and has only walked four batters while striking out nine. His biggest vulnerability last season was giving up the homerun ball. This season, he has yet to surrender a homerun (although Gomez and Schafer both pulled back balls that would have been homeruns with Thornburg on the mound). In my opinion, he deserves a spot in the starting rotation (at least on a trial basis). With the way the season is going (which is way, way down the drain), we may as well see what he can do for us.

Francisco Rodriguez – A
 
The Brewers’ current closer has a 1.19 ERA in 22.2 innings this season. He has struck out 25 while walking 8. He has only given up two homeruns this year, which is pretty impressive because that seemed to be one of his biggest weaknesses last season. He has limited opponents to a .200 batting average off of him and is a crisp 9/9 in save opportunities. Personally, I don’t think he can keep these numbers up for much longer so I’m hoping that we can ship him off to a contending team before he comes back down to earth.

John Axford – B+

While he struggled mightily for the entire month of April (losing his closer’s role to Jim Henderson), he was eventually able to get back to being the dominant John Axford who fans enjoyed watching in 2011. He has a 3.72 ERA in 38.2 innings pitched in 2013. He’s walked 17 batters, struck out 40, and has allowed 6 homeruns. He is 0/4 on the season in save opportunities, but has been very effective when used in the seventh and eighth innings. He probably has done enough to earn his closer’s role back, but with K-Rod and Henderson both currently on the team, Axford probably won’t get many opportunities to close out games for awhile.

Burke Badenhop – B
 
Overall Burke has been pretty effective for the Brewers this season, although his 4.14 ERA doesn’t necessarily reflect that. He has thrown 41.1 innings and has only given up four homers, while allowing 9 walks and striking out 30. In his career, he has always had more success getting out right handed hitters, but this year his splits are pretty even. If used in the right circumstances, he can usually get the job done.

Brandon Kintzler – B+

Kintzler owns a 2-0 record with a 3.40 ERA in 39.2 IP this season. He has only allowed 2 homeruns and twelve walks while striking out 37. He has not allowed any unearned runs to score this season. While other guys have had good months and bad months, Kintzler has been relatively consistent for the Brewers all season long. He has done a very good job getting the Brewers through to the next inning with the lead. He has zero blown saves and has recorded 9 holds this season. He’s been used in pretty much every situation this season with the exception of the closer’s role, and has shown that he’s a versatile bullpen pitcher who can be very useful for this team in the future.

Mike Gonzalez – C

While he has a respectable 3.00 ERA for the season, he hasn’t exactly been as efficient of a pitcher as some of the basic pitching stats would suggest. He has an 0-3 record this season with three blown saves to his name in 33 innings pitched. He has issued 17 walks while striking out 40 and giving up four homeruns. These all look like pretty good numbers, but you have to account for the fact that he is a “left handed specialist,” meaning that he comes into games with the specific purpose of getting out left handed hitters. Often times this means that he will be inheriting a couple of baserunners, and it’s his job to keep these runners from scoring. This season, Gonzalez has allowed 48% of inherited baserunners to score. FOURTY EIGHT PERCENT! He has a LOB% of 88% with his own baserunners, which is much better, but these are not the kind of numbers you want to see out of your left handed specialist. He was all sorts of awful in April and then seemed to figure it out in May, but hasn’t been overly impressive since his good month of May.  He has a WAR of 0, which means that he has no positive impact compared to others who are in the same role as he is. Overall he’s done an okay job, but has done a pretty poor job of getting left handed hitters out – which is what the Brewers primarily would like to use him for. He’s actually been better facing righties than lefties this year, which is kind of strange, but hey, at least he’s getting someone out?

Tom Gorzelanny – A+

Gorzelanny has probably been the Brewers overall best pitcher in 2013. He has been used both as a bullpen man and a starter, and Roenicke just announced that Gorzelanny will remain in the starting rotation permanently after his last outstanding start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has a 1.88 ERA in 52.2 IP. Most of these innings came out of the bullpen, but he has made a couple of spot starts for the Brewers this season. He has walked 20 and struck out 50. All three of his losses this year are undeserving, and two of them came in his last two starts, where he allowed zero earned runs in a combined twelve innings pitched. He has only allowed 5 homeruns this season and is holding opponents to a .196 batting average, which is outstanding. With all of the problems the Brewers have had with their starting rotation this season, it’s nice to see a guy be able to step up and help out when the Brewers desperately needed someone.

Jim Henderson – A

Henderson was installed as the closer when John Axford was removed from the role after a very poor start to the season. Jim has a 3-3 record with a 2.41 ERA in 33.2 innings pitched. He has converted 10/13 save opportunities this season and has only allowed two homeruns. He has walked 14 and struck out 35. He was virtually impossible to score upon during the first month and a half of the season, but has looked more vulnerable as of late. He had a DL stint earlier this season thanks to a tweaked hamstring and lost his closer’s role to K-Rod. He hasn’t seemed to be able to have as much success in the eighth inning as he had when he was closing games, but I think this is more of a coincidence than a “mental” thing. If (well, hopefully “when”) K-Rod is traded, Henderson may get his closer’s role back. It will be interesting to see if he could go back to being lights out in the closers role or if he continues to struggle like he has been in the seventh and eighth inning lately. Overall, he’s been better than anyone could have hoped for this season.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Kristin Zenz (@10iskristin)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @Mik3_Schu, and @10iskristin.