Recapping 2013 for the Milwaukee Brewers - Pitchers

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I am not going out on a limb when I say that the Brewers 2013 season was a bit of a disappointment. At 74-88, finishing ahead of the Cubs was the lone bright sport from a final record perspective. Despite playing in a division that sent three teams to the postseason, I believe that the organization and the fans expected much more from the club than we got in 2013. I will recap the season in two parts for the blog, starting with the pitching.

Upon the signing of Kyle Lohse just before the regular season began, it was believed that the Brewers rotation could be a strong point, with Lohse and Gallardo teaming up to form a solid 1-2 punch, followed by Marco Estrada, Mike Fiers, and youngster Wily Peralta. The crew was also hoping to get a strong return season from Chris Narveson, who missed all of 2012 thanks to a torn rotator cuff.

It’s safe to say that things didn’t go as planned with the rotation. Gallardo did not pitch like a number 1 starter much at all throughout the course of the season, and an early season DUI didn’t help his popularity. Gallardo pitched to a 12-10 record and a 4.18 ERA that was much helped by a very strong finish in his last few starts. While his home runs and walks allowed were down quite a bit from last year, he struck out just 144 batters, his first time under 200 in four years.

Lohse was the bright spot in the rotation, finishing with a record of 11-10 and a 3.35 ERA. He did give up a surprisingly high number of home runs, allowing 26 balls to clear the fence, his most since 2004, but was without question the strongest member of this year’s starting staff. He is 35 now, but remains under contract for two more season and has shown no signs of slowing down.

After his first full workload on the mound, Peralta heads into 2014 with high expectations

After the two veteran arms in the starting rotation, the Brewers were counting on a number on younger guys to step up and handle the back end, but didn’t quite receive the results they were hoping for. Wily Peralta actually pitched rather well, at times, in his first full season in the show but he did not go without struggle. The Brewers would like to see him strike out more batters, especially considering his impressive fastball which ranked among the best in terms of average velocity in the national league. He showed an ability to go deep into games, even throwing the Brewers first complete game shutout since 2011 when he struck out a career high six Reds on July 9th. This was a bit of a turning point in Peralta’s season, as his ERA sat at an ugly 5.27 entering the night. He finished with a record of 11-15 and a 4.37 ERA. Beyond Peralta however, the young arms the organization hoped to lean on didn’t really pan out. Fiers struggled mightily, spending much of the year in the minors after failing to get batters out in his first few starts and Mark Rogers continued to battle injuries that have hampered him his entire career. Youngsters Hiram Burgos and Johnny Hellweg, who have impressed in the minor leagues, also had their share of struggles in their time with the big league club and spent much of the year continuing to develop in the lower levels. Tyler Thornburg and Jimmy Nelson were the final two budding stars to get a shot with the big league club during the season. Thornburg was particularly impressive, pitching to a 2.03 ERA between starting and relief appearance and remains a possible candidate for the starting rotation moving forward. Nelson put up another solid season in the minor leagues before getting a shot with the club in September. In four appearances, including one start, Nelson struck out eight batters over 10 innings while allowing one run.

The final two pieces of the starting pitching puzzle, Chris Narveson and Marco Estrada spent the year battling injuries as well. Narveson was again sidelined all season and continues to look to make a push for a starting spot in 2014. Estrada actually pitched rather well in the time he was able to see the field, coming out with a 3.87 ERA in 21 starts. He remains a favorite to make the rotation in 2014, but must continue to work on decreasing his home runs allowed and prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season.

Moving forward, the crew looks to be in the same position they were entering the year in regards to starting pitching. Gallardo and Lohse will top the rotation ahead of several questions marks as to who can fill the final three spots. Peralta and Estrada will likely make up the three and four spots with several others vying for the fifth.  Thornburg, Nelson, Fiers, Burgos and Hellweg need to prove that they can pitch with the big boys over a full season.

That's no Photoshop. That's John Axford as a Cardinal.

Heading into 2013 it was no secret that the Brewers bullpen needed to improve. After ranking dead last in ERA in the national league at 4.66 in 2012, Doug Melvin put great emphasis on retooling the group to produce better results. Whatever he did seemed to work, as the 2013 squad ranked third in the league with a 3.19 ERA. Jim Henderson led the way with 28 saves, kicking out an impressive 2.70 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 60 innings. His power fastball has proved to be effective in the closer’s role and he looks to have a firm grasp on that spot heading into 2014. Brandon Kintzler earned a spot in the bullpen after an impressive showing with the club late in 2013 and stepped up in a big way for the crew, tossing the most innings out of the group and putting up an impressive 2.69 ERA with 58 strikeouts in 77 innings while holding opponents to a .234 batting average. He looks to be a promising piece of the pen moving forward. One of the arms that Melvin went out and got for the relief corps during the offseason was Tom Gorzelanny. The veteran added value as a lefty with starting experience and an ability to throw multiple innings out of the bullpen. He did very well filling in as a starter when needed and was particularly valuable out of the bullpen. Gorzelanny pitched just 36 innings of relief but was impressive, finishing with a 2.70 ERA in those outings. Another offseason addition that proved to be valuable was Burke Badenhop, who Melvin acquired from the Rays in a trade for Raul Mondesi, Jr. Ron Roenicke leaned heavily on Badenhop early in the season and the righty performed well when called upon. At the end of the season his ERA sat at 3.47 after tossing 62 plus innings. Michael Gonzalez was also acquired in the offseason after an impressive season with the National in 2012 where he put up a 3.03 ERA. Gonzalez had his struggles with the Brewers however, finishing with a 4.68 ERA and will likely land somewhere else in free agency. Two pitchers that the Brewers have leaned on heavily in the past in John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez were dealt during the season and found success with their new clubs. It was sad to see Axford go, but exciting to see him get another shot at the post-season with the Cardinals. Looking to next year, the Brewers have several promising bullpen arms in youngsters Rob Wooten, Donovan Hand and Michael Blazek, who all experienced a moderate amount of success this season. It is also possible that we will see any of the younger guys mentioned above as possible starters end up in the bullpen in 2014 along with Alfredo Figaro, who performed well as a spot starter and long man, posting a 2.94 ERA in relief.

I could see Melvin making some minor moves to improve the pitching staff heading into 2014, but I think we will mostly see guys that we saw this year. The bullpen seems to have the necessary pieces to see repeated success and the rotation simply needs youngsters to develop and prove they can pitch at the big league level. If they can do that, and guys can stay healthy, I think the Brewers pitching can be a strong point in 2014.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Joseph Norton (@JoeP_Norton)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, and @10iskristin.

Predicting the Brewers 2014 Pitching Staff

Since I can no longer bear to think about the sad state of affairs that the Brewers are in this season, looking ahead to 2014 sounded like a better option. I feel a little bit better about the Brewers pitching options for next season than I did before the 2013 season started, but the pitching in the farm system is still weak (especially compared to some of the farm systems that the rest of the teams in our division have). Here is how I think the pitching staff will look like to start the 2014 MLB season.

Starting rotation

Kyle Lohse – Lohse has easily been the Brewers best and most consistent starting pitcher this season. He has a 9-8 record with a 3.22 ERA in 159.1 innings pitched. He has walked 32 batters while striking out 105, and has a WHIP of 1.15. He has been worth his salary this season, but hasn’t been enough to push the Brewers into playoff contention like Brewers personnel thought he would be able to do when signing Lohse in March. It’s possible that the Brewers could trade him at or before the 2014 trade deadline if he is able to keep performing like he has this year. But, as it stands right now, he’s probably going to be the club’s 2014 opening day starter.

Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo struggled early this season, then strung together a couple of good starts, and then went back to struggling before landing on the disabled list with a hamstring injury while pitching against the Cubs (he must hate Wrigley Field). If the Brewers are going to have any chance at competing in the near future, they are going to need Gallardo to pitch like he did in 2011 and 2012. Like Lohse, there is a possibility that the Brewers could end up trading Gallardo, but I think a Yovani trade is far less likely than a Lohse trade. But who knows, the Brewers have surprised me before.

Wily Peralta – I’m going to be completely honest here; I have absolutely no idea what to expect out of Peralta next year. He’s been such a hit or miss pitcher this season that I am never quite sure what to think about him. It seems like he either has the ability to lose it early in a game and not be able to recover, or he stays out there for 8 innings and is virtually unhittable; there’s not much in-between with him. For the most part, he’s been great the second half of the season, having thrown 2 complete games for the Brewers this year (although one was against the Mariners, so does that really count?). Hopefully we can see some more consistency out of him next season, and he’ll be able to pitch well right away instead of waiting until the summer months to get on a roll.

Marco Estrada – I don’t think Estrada will last in the starting rotation much past mid-May or early-June, simply because I think we’ll see the Brewers give Jimmy Nelson or perhaps Ariel Pena a shot at the rotation (or maybe even Thornburg. Maybe). I like Estrada a lot more as a long reliever, but the Brewers seem to want to keep him in the starting rotation (he WAS our 2-starter going into spring training this season), so it will be interesting to see what happens with him next year.

Johnny Hellweg – I predict that the Brewers will give Hellweg a shot over the other young starting pitchers that they have mainly because he already has some major league experience. It probably depends on who gets called up this September and how they are able to perform, but I still think Hellweg is the frontrunner. He did struggle in his short time in the majors this year, and that’s putting it nicely. However, some of his struggles can be attributed to his defense forgetting what it means to field a ball or throw it to first base. This season in Triple-A Nashville, he’s been doing very well, he just needs to be able to get his walks under control. He has the ability to throw in the upper 90s and at the very least could probably do well out of the bullpen, so he’s a good option for the Brewers to have.

Bullpen

Tyler Thornburg – Thornburg thrived in the bullpen the first time he came up this season, but was almost equally as effective as a starter. However, now that the Brewers have elected to keep Tom Gorzelanny in the starting rotation, it almost seems like they are giving up on him as a starter and think that he might be more useful in the bullpen. He may get a few more chances to start in September, but I get the feeling that the Brewers have already decided his fate (in the bullpen).

Jim Henderson – Aside from the few appearances right after he came back from a hamstring injury, he’s been completely lights out. Barring an injury or a total and complete colossal collapse (like the Cubs in the month of October), I think he already has the 2014 closer’s role locked up.

Brandon Kintzler – Kintzler has been the most consistent Brewers reliever this season, and has been the best option to bring in during the late innings in close ballgames. He’s a solid 8th inning option, but has shown that he can be used at just about any time in any situation and get the job done.

Rob Wooten – Wooten made his major league debut on July 27th against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. He pitched a scoreless inning, and has outstanding numbers during his short time in the major leagues. So far, he has a 1-0 record with a 0.69 ERA, surrendering only eight hits and one run in 14 innings pitched. He has 9 strikeouts and has issued just 2 walks, giving him a WHIP of 0.77. It’s a small sample size, but if he can continue to pitch well, there’s no doubt that he will be back next year.

Tom Gorzelanny – Unless the Brewers decide to sign a left handed reliever this off-season (hopefully they don’t waste the money), Gorzelanny is probably going to be the only left handed pitcher that the Brewers will have next season. Chris Narveson is really the only other lefty option that they have, but he has been struggling in Nashville as of late, and I don’t think he’s going to end up making the ballclub next year – at least not right away. I don’t think the Brewers would go with a bullpen comprised of all right handed pitchers, so Gorzelanny is a good fit for the pen. He’s done a decent job while starting this season (except against the Cardinals, but that seems to be a trend amongst all of the Brewers players), but ultimately he’s probably more useful out of the bullpen.

Burke Badenhop – Badenhop’s 2013 season started out kind of rough, but he’s been much better since the month of May. He can be used in multiple situations throughout a game, and Roenicke often brings Badenhop into a game when the team could use a double play. 2014 is his last year for arbitration eligibility, and the Brewers could probably get him back at a reasonable price for the season.

John Axford – I really think that it’s in the club’s best interests to just part ways with Axford, but I don’t think they are going to do it. He still has arbitration years through the 2016 season, so they will probably bring him back hoping that he can once again “figure it out.” If he does pitch well, they can always trade him if they aren’t contending. He’s making $5MM this season, so that’s probably about what he could get in arbitration again this off-season.

All of these roster spots are pure guesses on my part, and obviously a lot of things could happen during the rest of this season and the off-season that can factor into who the Brewers decide to put on their roster. I can only hope that they don’t go out and throw another 3 year contract at another veteran starting pitcher (we don’t want you, Bronson Arroyo) because they think they’re “one player away” from making a playoff run again. Also, please, please, please don’t bring back Mike Gonzalez. I’m begging you.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Kristin Zenz (@10iskristin)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @TABrown23, and @10iskristin.

Who SHOULD the Brewers Move, and Who WILL They Move at the Deadline?

This season has indeed been disappointing to us all as Brewers fans, with a horrible win-loss record and the news of our beloved Ryan Braun out for the remainder of the season due to a PED suspension. But let’s not hang our hats on the season and call it a complete disappointment just yet. Remember last year when many Brewers fan didn’t want to part with Zack Greinke, holding on to a glimmer of hope that the team would be able to retain him in the offseason? Well, had they not traded Greinke, they still would not have signed him (the Dodgers were determined to win that battle) and we would not have the impressive Jean Segura leading our team, and the entire national league, in hits this season.

I think that this season can still yield some success for the Brewers, if Doug Melvin can make the right moves and acquire some promising pieces for the future. I like the move that sent Francisco Rodriguez to Baltimore for Nicky Delmonico last week. Giving up K-Rod, a guy that wasn’t even on our roster until mid May, for a top 5 prospect on any other team is a good deal in my eyes. But I think that there are still a few more potential moves that could be made to bring the Brewers some more talent that could benefit the team down the road. Below I take a look at the players that could be on the trading block and whether I think they SHOULD be traded, along with whether I believe they WILL be dealt. 

Michael Gonzalez – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes. WILL HE BE DEALT? YES

Gonzalez was a sought after piece in the offseason after posting an impressive 3.03 ERA in 2012 while allowing just 2 home runs. The Braves were a possible trade partner for Gonzalez but that changed when they acquired left hander Scott Downs from the Angles on Monday. Possible suitors remain however, as plenty of playoff contending teams could benefit from the services of a capable lefty like Gonzalez. The return might not be great, however, given Gonzalez has struggled at times this year and he is only signed through the end of the season.

John Axford – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? No. WILL HE BE DEALT? No

Axford has certainly had his ups and downs the past two seasons, but no one can forget his lights out season in 2011, and he is still a fairly young, capable late inning reliever. After struggling early on in the season, Axford ripped of a streak of 23 consecutive appearances without allowing a run, trying a Brewers franchise record. In addition to the impressive streak, the Ax-Man had his ERA was all the way down to 3.50 before allowing 2 earned runs against the Rockies on Sunday afternoon. I think it would be best for the Brewers to retain Axford to pair with Jim Henderson as the focal point of the bullpen moving forward.

Jim Henderson – SHOULD HE BE DEALTH? No. WILL HE BE DEALT? No

I feel that the Brewers should retain Henderson for the same reasons I think Axford needs to stay. He is a capable, fairly young late inning reliever who is signed to an affordable contract and has impressed in the opportunities he’s been given in a Brewers uniform. His ERA currently sits at an impressive 2.09 on the year and he has 12 saves in 15 chances. He is a bit of a feel good story as well, after enduring nearly 10 years in the minor leagues before earning a chance with the crew last season. Unless someone offers something Melvin can’t turn down, I do not think the Brewers will or should explore trade possibilities for Henderson.

Aramis Ramirez – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes. WILL HE BE DEALT? No.
 
This one is tough. A healthy Ramirez could be a very attractive trade chip for teams looking for a bat capable of driving in runs and a solid glove at third base. The holdup here is that Rammy has only played in a handful of games this season, it seems, and is progressing slowly in his recovery from a banged up left knee. Reports Tuesday morning said he tested the knee during batting practice on Monday, but has no idea when he will be ready to return to the lineup. I am still on the side of the fence saying to trade Ramirez for any valuable piece you can get, because I just don’t see him doing much for the club in the remainder of this season or next year. He will be 36 and in the final year of his contract in 2014, a season in which I don’t much expect the Brewers to be contenders. I think it would be wise of Melvin to try and move him, however I just don’t see it happening at this point.

Kyle Lohse – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes.  WILL HE BE DEALT? No.

I was not a happy camper when I heard that the Brewers signed Lohse to a three year, $33 Million contract on March 25th. I personally didn’t expect the team to contend this season and would have preferred to save the money and retain the first round pick we were forced to give up for signing him. That being said, I think that mistake can be rectified if Melvin can swing him for a prospect or two at the deadline. Lohse will turn 35 before next season but still provides value as a number two or three starter. He is off to a very good start this year, his ERA sitting at 3.22, and has shown no signs of slowing down. Again, I don’t expect the team to contend in 2014, so getting someone of value for Lohse seems like the best option here. However, I don’t see Melvin throwing in the towel just yet on 2014 and I feel that he considers Lohse a valuable piece to the team’s possible success moving forward. I don’t see him moving, unless someone offers a deal Doug can’t turn down.  

Yovani Gallardo – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? No. WILL HE BE DEALT? No.

Gallardo is signed through 2014, on a very team friendly deal considering he is the team’s number one starter. It has been rumored that several teams have been interested in the 27 year old, the Diamondbacks among them. I believe the major holdup here is that Gallardo isn’t pitching to his full potential, at just 8-9 with a 4.88 ERA on the year,  and wouldn’t bring the type of return that he is truly worth if Melvin decided to move him. Gallardo has been a Brewer his entire career, and I would like to see him remain a Brewer. I think the best thing to do would be to hold onto Yo at least until his value rises again. I simply do not see Melvin moving him for something less than what he is worth, which is all that he would get at this point. 

Nori Aoki – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes. WILL HE BE DEALT? No.

Everyone loves Nori, myself included, but I really believe that he needs to go. The Brewers have long been out of the running this season and I don’t expect them to be contenders again during Aoki’s contract. He is only signed through 2014 and Logan Schafer is knocking on the door. I think the crew could get good value here and open a spot for a budding star in Schafer. Plenty of teams would love to have Nori’s bat in their lineup and glove in their outfield. I believe Doug would be wise to try his best to move him, however I simply don’t see it happening at this point.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Joseph Norton (@JoeP_Norton)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @TABrown23, and @10iskristin.

Brewers First Half Report Card: Starting Pitchers

The Brewers starting pitching has been their most obvious Achilles’ heel this season, so this piece was rather painful to write. Each starter has shown potential and has had a (small) handful of encouraging outings, but it seems like every time an individual pitcher takes a step forward one start, they end up taking two steps back their next time out. You know your season isn’t going very well when the biggest positives in your rotation come from spot starters out of the bullpen who are filling in for injured starters. Here are my grades for the Brewers starting pitchers for the first half of 2013.

Kyle Lohse; B+

Despite having a 4-6 record, Lohse has a respectable 3.43 ERA and has pitched better than his numbers this year. He has started 16 games and almost always manages to keep the Brewers in the ballgame the entire time he is pitching. He’s gotten terrible run support from the Brewers offense in most of his starts this year, so that explains his poor record. He has given up 102 hits and has only surrendered 17 walks in 102.1 innings pitched, giving him a WHIP of 1.16 on the season. With the exception of three poor starts (two of which could have been attributed to injury), Lohse has been good and is definitely the Brewers most consistent starting pitcher.

He has failed on the mound as well as on the road.

Yovani Gallardo; C

Yo is currently 6-8 with a 4.78 ERA in 101.2 innings pitched. He has started 18 games this season and is averaging somewhere between 5  1/3 and 5 2/3 innings per start. This is not exactly the type of production you want to see out of one of your supposed “top” pitchers. You usually hope for at least six and probably even seven innings out of your number two starter each time out, but Gallardo has had a difficult time even getting out of the fifth inning on a consistent basis this season. It seems like it takes him thirty pitches to get through the first inning every single time out and there have been multiple starts when he has failed to go more than four innings. He has struck out 82, given up 38 walks and has allowed 11 homers this season. Just when he seems to have found his “stuff” one game, he goes out and gets lit up in his next couple of starts. Although the Brewers defense hasn’t been the best this season, good pitchers will continue to churn out good starts despite having to get some extra outs. Gallardo has failed to do this, and seems to give up unearned runs more often than stranding them. His high pitch counts in early innings are a big problem and are something that he needs to work on.

Marco Estrada; C -

When it was announced in spring training that Estrada would be the Brewers’ number two starter, I knew this season would probably be less than enjoyable to watch, at least from a pitching standpoint. Estrada had impressive stuff in some of his starts, but in the bad ones when he was “off,” he was REALLY off. He has a 5.32 ERA and a 4-4 record in 12 starts for the Brewers. He walked 18 batters and surrendered 14 homeruns in 69.1 innings pitched. He is currently on the disabled list with a hamstring injury and recently suffered a setback in one of his rehab outings so the Brewers are unsure as to when to expect Estrada back. He averaged 5 2/3 innings per start, so unfortunately he fits in just fine with the rest of the rotation.

Wily has lots of learning to do still.

    Wily Peralta; D

Wily has a 5-9 record with a 5.27 ERA on the season. He has started 18 games and is only averaging 5 1/3 innings per start. Peralta’s outings this season have been an adventure, to say the least. He still has a lot of learning to do and progress to make in the big leagues, but with the team struggling mightily, this is a good year to work on his game. He’s a pretty puzzling pitcher to figure out, because it seems like he’ll either go out and throw 7 innings of shutout ball, or he’ll get lit up and not make it through the fourth inning; there’s really no in-between for him. He’s been pretty bad in the majority of his starts this season, but the Brewers’ defense hasn’t helped him out.  I have noticed a lot of times that after the defense makes an error or Peralta makes a bad pitch, he gets frustrated and tends to lose his concentration. This is definitely something that he needs to improve upon if he wants to have success in the major leagues. While it is unfair to hold young pitchers to as high of expectations as you have for more experienced pitchers, you can’t really afford to have your pitchers frequently failing to make it out of the fourth or fifth inning, especially when you have one or two other starters who have the same problem. Wily definitely has some more work to do in the big leagues, but on the bright side, it can really only go up from here.

Alfredo Figaro; C

Figaro was forced into the starting rotation when the Brewers lost other pitchers due to injury and poor performance. Figaro is now also on the disabled list, but did an okay job while filling in as a starter. He started the year in the bullpen, but Ron used him so minimally in April that sometimes I forgot that Figaro was even on the team. He is very susceptible to the homerun ball and that has shown in his last couple of starts. He currently has a 4.64 ERA in 21 games – 5 of those are games in which he has started. He has surrendered 13 homeruns this season, which is the third highest on the team after Lohse and Estrada (both have given up 14). Overall, an acceptable performance as a spot starter, but I think he is better suited for long relief out of the bullpen.

Donovan Hand; A 

I saved the best for last in case the first part of this article depressed you as much as it depressed me to write. Hand has only made two starts for the Brewers, but he was very impressive in both of those starts. He has appeared in 11 games this season and has pitched very well almost every single time out. Hand, who had been in the minor leagues his entire career up until this season, has a 2.63 ERA in 24 innings pitched. He has only walked 3 batters in 24 innings, which is pretty impressive. He has 14 strikeouts to go along with those walks and has only allowed 7 earned runs this season.  I know it’s pretty sad when the most impressive part about your teams’ starting rotation a is a rookie pitcher who has only made two starts, but hey, you have to try and find a positive somewhere otherwise you may go crazy. Hand has exceeded my expectations so far this season and I can only hope that he can keep pitching like he did in his previous two starts.

As you can see, the Brewers pitching has been pretty sad this year and could possibly get even worse if the Brewers find a trade partner for Lohse and/or Gallardo. However, the Brewers do have a few up and coming pitchers in the minor leagues who could be ready for next year, so not all hope is lost. Just all hope for this season.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Kristin Zenz (@10iskristin)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @Mik3_Schu, and @10iskristin.

A Few Ideas for the Brewers at the Trade Deadline

The Brewers will be an active team during the the closing weeks of July as the Non-waiver Trade Deadline looms.

We know it's coming. Doug said it's happening. Mark A. hinted it. Major changes are coming. They will be freeing salary cap while reloading the farm system in the process. Rebuilding for success is about to begin.

I had a long conversation regarding these possible trade ideas with fellow Brewers blogger Ryan Topp (@RyanTopp), who writes over at the Disciples of Uecker blog. We collaborated for a few hours on who are high priority people that need to move, and less important players that don't necessarily need to be moved, but should be shopped.

Here are a few trades that make a lot of sense for both parties involved. These aren't rumors, so don't take them as rumors. These are just ideas of mine that I have put together through research of the prospects and team needs. So, let's get started.

1. Milwaukee Brewers trade 3B Aramis Ramirez to the Boston Red Sox for LHP Brian Johnson and 2B Mookie Betts.

This one is easy. Aramis is set to be the highest paid Brewer next year at 16 million dollars. That is a lot of money that could be freed up for a rebuilding team. Also, the Red Sox need a lot of help at the hot corner. It's been a cold corner for them, actually. Will Middlebrooks has been terrible this year. The phenomenon that is José Iglesias will eventually cool off as well, although he is playing about as good as anyone right now in the Bigs. When it's all said and done, the Red Sox will need a right handed power bat in that lineup. Ramirez could play some DH for the Red Sox if Big Papi were to play first base on those days. The Red Sox have been a nice surprise this year, and Ramirez could be a nice threat added to that already solid lineup.

As for who the Brewers could get, I like the upside in Brian Johnson. He's a south paw who has a 4-pitch arsenal. He has a good sinking fast ball that touches around 92-93, a great slider that is his out pitch, a developing change up, and a decent curve. He's having a bit of an off year at age 22, so he could be available. Brian is ranked the #13 prospect in the Red Sox organization, according to MLB.com.

Mookie Betts is a hidden gem in the Red Sox farm system.

The other component to this trade is someone hidden in the Red Sox farm system, but someone who I think has a bright future in the MLB. Second baseman Mookie Betts is showing great patience in A-ball. He's actually having a very unique season. He's one of only five players currently in the minors who has at least 7 home runs with more walks than strikeouts. Betts actually has almost twice as many walks as strike outs with at least 7 round trippers. (8 HR, 46 walks, 29 strikeouts). To put that into perspective, since 2001, only Barry Bonds has accomplished such a statistic.

I believe the Red Sox would love to have Aramis Ramirez. If they bring him back for next year, it would give the Red Sox another year to develop 3B Garin Cecchini so he's ready by 2015 to take over the hot corner in Boston.  

2. Milwaukee Brewers trade RHP Yovani Gallardo and 1B/OF Corey Hart to the Texas Rangers for 3B Mike Olt, RHP Neil Ramirez, and RHP C.J. Edwards.

There are two Yovani trades I could come up with. (Actually, the first one is mine and the other belongs to Ryan Topp) 

This might seem as a stretch for some, as Texas rarely trades away top prospects. But, there's a part of me that believes Texas has a secret man crush on these two Brewers. A lot of this trade may be apart of a desperation move by Texas if suspensions are handed out to Nelson Cruz for being a part of the Biogenesis scandal.

The Rangers are having all sorts of starting pitching issues to people not named Yu Darvish. Injury after injury after injury has caused over half the rotation to land on the DL. Gallardo has been proven to be a rather healthy guy since his ACL tear and recovery, which is appealing to any team looking for a reliable pitcher.

Another thing worth noting is that a trade very similar to this almost happened between the Brewers and Rangers last season when the Brewers were shopping Zack Greinke. Much like I mentioned above, the Rangers were reluctant to want to move any big prospects. However, now the Rangers have talked about moving guys like third base prospect Mike Olt, who would have to be the big name to come from Texas to the Brewers if they were to send Gallardo.

Neil Ramirez and C.J. Edwards are two pitching prospects the Brewers would likely be interested in. Much like the Zack Greinke trade, the Brewers will focus on getting a top prospect and then get two potentially great players as well. However, this time the Brewers will have to send more than one player, and it could be Corey Hart if he can prove he can play after the All-Star break. Texas would love the power bat of Corey Hart especially if worse comes to worst for Nelson Cruz. But the likelihood of any team wanting Hart is slim. So maybe you look to move Nori Aoki? Just to shop him, as he is one of the guys you wouldn't mind having in future plans but definite depth is there in the minors in case you do move him. Furthermore, Logan Schafer is sure proving he can be an every day player, thus losing Aoki wouldn't pinch as much.

OR

Milwaukee Brewers trade RHP Yovani Gallardo and 2B Rickie Weeks to the Baltimore Orioles for RHP Kevin Gausman, 1B Christian Walker, and C Michael Ohlman

Baltimore makes about the most sense on paper. Baltimore desperately needs pitching, and they have a ton of prospects. Plus, their issues at second base were like the Brewers' issues at shortstop a few years back. They have nothing acceptable now, and nothing in the works in their minor league system, which is why the trade makes a huge amount of sense.

Gausman after signing his contract last season.

Much like the trade above, this trade would have to produce a top prospect from the Orioles farm system. Kevin Gausman is the obvious choice. Taken 4th overall in the 2012 MLB Draft, Gausman is quickly climbing the levels of the Orioles farm system. Currently pitching in Triple-A along side with Dylan Bundy, he has been rather impressive. Ignoring the wins and losses, Kevin has a 3.11 ERA with 46 strikeouts and only 5 walks. He's got ace potential, number 2 guy at worst. He's going to be a front line starter in the near future.

If we are sending Weeks too, then I expect more names to be involved in such a trade like this. Christian Walker would be a great get for the Brewers in case the Hunter Morris project doesn't work out. Walker hits for average (currently batting .317 in the minors). He has 81 hits with 21 of them going for extra bases (14 doubles, 7 home runs). Currently plays in High-A ball and projected to make MLB debut somewhere in 2015-2016.

Finally, a little bit of a gamble but high ceiling player is Michael Ohlman. He's a catcher. He had a really bad year in 2011. Since then, he's been turning it up and showing vast improvements. Some scouts don't trust it, but you can't ignore the stats. In 2011 he hit .224. Two years later, he's batting .283. Still not "blown away" numbers, but they are definitely noteworthy. 

All of this comes together with sending away Rickie Weeks. The Orioles have a serious issue in their farm system with a lack of developing a second baseman. Weeks would bide them a few years time to address that issue. As much as don't want to see Weeks go, his salary bumps up to 11 million dollars next year and that may weigh the Brewers down if they truly focus on rebuilding.

3. Milwaukee Brewers trade LHP Michael/Mike Gonzalez and RHP Francisco Rodriguez to the Detroit Tigers for OF Tyler Collins, LHP Matt Hoffman, and RHP Melvin Mercedes.

This one is a no-brainer. The Tigers need bullpen help. Bad. Jose Valverde is showing the Tigers why they didn't bring him back in the offseason. They have no real reliable source in the pen to take over the closer duties besides Phil Coke. Bruce Rondon was a big tug of war as far as will he be or won't he be our closer. Bottom-line, the Tigers need bullpen arms.

The Brewers could send a proven closer in K-Rod and a decent situational pitcher in Gonzalez in exchange for a few prospects. Both are veterans which is something that (kind of) young bullpen staff needs. 

The most important thing to remember is that this is what the Tigers need right now. They may be willing to part ways with some guys in the lower parts of their minor system to win now, which is why I chose Matt Hoffman and Melvin Mercedes. They both are promising relief pitchers that are just tearing up the minor leagues right now. Hoffman is 24 years old left handed pitcher in Triple-A for the Tigers. Hoffman is not on the Tigers 40 man roster, which is odd. He currently has an ERA of 1.13.

Melvin Mercedes might be a bit tough to get from Detroit. He's on their 40 man and he's having a better season than Hoffman. Granted the right handed pitcher is only 22 years of age pitching in High-A, his numbers are still really good. As a closer, Mercedes is sporting a line of 0.66 ERA/0.91 WHIP/.202 AVG, 11 saves, and 17 strikeouts in 27.1 innings pitched.

Finally, Tyler Collins is a corner outfielder with some good pop in his bat. Though only batting .223 so far this year, he is still putting up pretty decent stats. 22 extra base hits on 45 total hits, including 9 home runs.

4. Milwaukee Brewers trade RHP Kyle Lohse to the San Francisco Giants for LHP Michael Kickham and LHP Ty Blach.

The Giants will be looking for a helluva lot more than just starting pitching come the trade deadline. They need help all around the baseball diamond. The starting rotation, bullpen, second base, and outfield all need to be addressed for them. I think the Brewers will help them with a starting pitcher as Kyle Lohse makes a lot of sense here. They have some payroll freeing up after this season as the Barry Zito contract is on it's tail end. So picking up Lohse's contract wouldn't be all that bad for them.

Kickham pitching for the Giants' Triple-A affiliate.

Unlike the teams listed above, the Giants farm system isn't anything to write home about. There are a few guys that stand out that I think would have to be a part of the deal. The first being Michael Kickman. He's a lefty. He's got a good strike out pitch. And, he's likely only a year or so away from being 100% Big League ready. He made one start for the Giants this year and showed he isn't exactly ready yet. He only lasted 2 1/3 innings and is sporting a 15.43 ERA. He'll be a great middle of the rotation guy once he's truly ready.

Ty Blach is an interesting one. He's not anywhere near Baseball America's Top 30 (per team) for the Giants. Yet, he's tossing really good numbers so far this year for High-A. He's 7-2 over 12 starts, 2.41 ERA/1.09 WHIP/.255 AVG, while striking out 63 batters and only surrendering 8 walks. I like his upside and can be a good middle of the order lefty arm.

(A side note here: I'm not sure how serious we should be taking the San Diego Padres right now, but they are sure playing some great baseball and could be buyers at the deadline if they seriously have a Wild Card slot in sight. They would need pitching, and a lot of it.)

I'm not saying every single trade idea will happen, but these are some options the Brewers will have. They will be heavily shopping players for the next month and a half. It's going to be a pretty wild time. Change can be hard to deal with, especially as a fan because of the connection you develop with your favorite players. But, a change of landscape is needed for this team and it should be something everyone should be looking forward to if they want to Brewers to succeed in the near future.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @Mik3_Schu, and @10iskristin.

A Look Ahead – Where the Brewers Offense Could be in 2014

If you’re like me, this Brewers seasons has frustrated you to no end and you’re probably having a difficult time coming up with positive things to say about the team. At this point, the only non-negative things you can think of to say are laced with sarcasm. Or perhaps now you’re just content that no other players have been injured within the last week. That’s a good start…I think? Segura has been fun to watch, and Gomez has been a nice surprise, but other than that, this season has pretty much been a nightmare. Sure, the Brewers just won a series in Miami and are coming off a 6-0 win against the division rival Reds yesterday, but for the most part, there haven’t been a whole lot of positives this season. For me, I’d much rather think about the future of this franchise than dwell on their ho-hum play from 2013.

Corey Hart trips on blade of grass, placed on 365 Day DL.

Let’s look forward to 2014 and see how next season could possibly start out. The players that the Brewers could and should end up moving this year are third baseman Aramis Ramirez, right fielder Nori Aoki, bullpen pitchers Francisco Rodriguez, Michael Gonzalez and possibly John Axford and Jim Henderson. The Brewers should also look to see what they could get in return for starting pitchers Kyle Lohse and possibly Yovani Gallardo. Rickie Weeks could be a player that the Brewers would be willing to part ways with, but with his performance so far this season I doubt that any team would be interested in trading for him unless he really starts hitting. Corey Hart is a common name that keeps coming up, but at this point, nobody really knows if he will even be on his rehab assignment before the trade deadline. His injury has kept him out longer than expected, and the Brewers don’t think that he will be ready to play before the All Star Break. This will drastically diminish his trade value and probably discourage teams from wanting to trade for him. I also think there’s a big possibility that the Brewers try and bring him back on a one year deal for 2014. 

So, if the Brewers end up trading some or all of these players, that means that they are going to be going into rebuild mode, and there could be a handful of rookie debuts next year. Here is how I think the 2014 roster will shape up. 

Left Field – Ryan Braun. There is zero chance that the Brewers trade him and barring any sudden developments in a situation that I won’t mention, he will be the Brewers starting left fielder on opening day 2014.

Center Field – Carlos Gomez. Another player who isn’t going anywhere. Gomez just received an extension before the season started and has performed better than anyone could have possibly imagined this year – it’s almost like he resurrected his career right before our eyes. (Hey, so this is what it feels like to be a Cardinals fan). It’s a treat to watch him play defense, and his speed on the bags makes him one of the best base runners in the game.

Right Field – Logan Schafer. He’s shown the Brewers what he is capable of doing on the field this year – offensive and defensively. He has one of the Brewers’ best defensive plays of the year this year, gunning down Miguel Montero at home plate from left field in early April. His throwing arm is a thing of beauty, and he has been on fire at the plate lately. If Nori Aoki gets traded, I think Schafer will become the everyday right fielder.

Honestly, this is a better option at third base than Yuni B.

Third Base – This one is more of a question mark, but the Brewers have a couple of possibilities should they trade Aramis Ramirez. They have Taylor Green, who is currently out for this season with a hip injury. Jeff Bianchi, who is being used as a utility man for the Brewers right now, has the ability to play third base. The Brewers also have Juan Francisco, who is currently sharing time at first base with Yuniesky Betancourt, but is a natural third baseman. They could also allow Josh Prince some playing time. He was with the team earlier this year and is currently batting .255 with an OBP of .349 in Nashville. I don’t think any of these guys are long term solutions, but for a team who is attempting to rebuild, any of them would be an okay fit for a year. As long as I don’t have to watch Yuniesky Betancourt ever play third base again, I’ll be happy.

Shortstop – Jean Segura. If you could give someone a negative chance of being traded, I would give that to him. Acquired in the Zack Greinke deal last year, Segura has become a hitting machine. He also has incredible range at shortstop and a very strong throwing arm. He’ll be here for awhile, folks.

Second base – I believe that Rickie Weeks will eventually get himself out of his hitting slump and start playing every day for the Brewers. He has started hitting lately, but is still in a platoon with Scooter Gennett. Weeks will be owed $12MM in 2014. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want a player who is earning $12MM (the second highest 2014 salary behind Aramis’ $16MM) to be sitting on the bench half of the time. The Brewers aren’t going anywhere this year, so I’m not sure why they aren’t giving Weeks more opportunities now that he is finally starting to turn it around.

First base – Many people are saying that Hunter Morris will be called up to start at first base in 2014, but I have a feeling that Corey Hart will be back. Since his injury will have kept him out for at least half of the season, teams will probably be hesitant to give him a big deal. The Brewers could bring him back for one year and help him build up some value. If things go well for him and the Brewers aren’t in the race again next year, they could always trade him before the deadline (assuming his stays healthy).

Catcher – Either Jonathan Lucroy or Martin Maldonado will be the Brewers’ primary catcher in 2014. I seriously doubt that Lucroy gets traded, but if he does, we will probably see Maldy pick up most of the catching duties. 

So, as you can see, the Brewers offense will still be in pretty good shape next year. This “rebuild” will probably only take two or three years and the Brewers will be able to start contending for a postseason spot around 2015. And hopefully, by this time, the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates won’t be the three best teams in the National League. But, for now, we’re just going to have to try and survive the rest of the 2013 season by making clever jokes about how bad the team is in order to make ourselves laugh so we don’t cry.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Kristin Zenz (@10iskristin)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @Mik3_Schu, and @10iskristin.

2013 MLB Season Preview: NL Central

Cincinnati Reds

Notable additions: Shin-Shoo Choo (trade), Ryan Ludwick (re-signed), Jonathan Broxton (re-signed), Jack Hannahan (FA), Cesar Isturis (FA)

Notable losses: Didi Gregorius (trade), Drew Stubbs (trade), Dioner Navarro (FA), Miguel Cairo (FA), Scott Rolen (FA)

The Reds are coming off a 97-win season that ended with a loss to the Giants in the NLDS. Then enter 2013 as the division favorites, or at least as far as I’m concerned. They aren’t without flaws, but they’re nonetheless a fairly well-rounded team with an impressive mix of young and veteran talent. Dusty Baker gets a lot of heat for his tactics, but even he can’t mess this up.

Any conversation about this offense begins and ends with Joey Votto. He’s arguably the best all-around first baseman in baseball, with excellent discipline, power, defense, and eyebrows. He’s the undisputed franchise player. Shin-Shoo Choo will lead off and play center field, which gives the Reds the superb leadoff hitter they’ve desperately needed but hurts them defensively. Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips are All-Star caliber players that will join Votto in the heart of the lineup. Zack Cozart provides a very good glove at short, and Todd Frazier will take over full-time at third base with Scott Rolen mulling retirement. Frazier is coming off a good rookie year but I have my doubts he’ll keep up that production. The bench is good but not great. Watch out for center field prospect Billy Hamilton to make a splash this year - he might be the fastest player major league baseball has ever seen.

The Reds play in an extreme hitter’s park but you wouldn’t know it based on their pitching. Johnny Cueto is coming off of his best season and is worthy of being dubbed the staff ace. Homer Bailey and Matt Latos are both #2-level starters, but there’s a drop-off after the top three. Bronson Arroyo and Mike Leake are average starters that can eat some innings but neither are particularly good. The team toyed with Aroldis Chapman in the rotation, but ultimately will keep him in the closer role, which frankly does everyone else in the division a favor. Sean Marshall and Jose Arredondo are both very good relievers and Jonathan Broxton was given a big (and stupid) deal to set-up for Chapman, despite declining stuff. 

Roster

Catcher: Ryan Hanigan, Devin Mesoraco 
First Base: Joey Votto 
Second Base: Brandon Phillips 
Shortstop: Zack Cozart 
Third Base: Todd Frazier, Jack Hannahan 
Outfield: Ryan Ludwick, Shin-Shoo Choo, Jay Bruce, Chris Heisey, Xavier Paul 
Utility: Cesar IzturHAHAHAHAHAHAHA 
Starting Pitchers: Johnny Cueto, Matt Latos, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake 
Relief Pitchers: Manny Parra, JJ Hoover, Nick Masset (DL), Alfredo Simon, Sam LeCure, Jonathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, Aroldis Chapman 

St. Louis Cardinals

Notable additions: Ty Wiggington (FA), Randy Choate (FA)

Notable losses: Kyle Lohse (FA), Lance Berkman (FA), Skip Schumaker (FA), Kyle McClellan (FA)

Kozma doing Kozma things.

As much as we would love the Cardinals to go away, it’s not going to happen anytime soon. Not only does St. Louis have a deep and talented major league team, but also possess one of the best farm systems in baseball (if not the best). Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, Carlos Beltran, Yadier Molina, and David Freese all make up for a potent middle-of-the-order, and the combo of Matt Carpenter and Jon Jay form an excellent on-base machine on top of the lineup. If there’s a weakness, it’s injury. Beltran, Holliday, Freese, Jay, and Craig all have injury histories, with Freese already hurt. The shortstop situation is awful, with Pete Kozma forced to start with Rafael Furcal out for the year. Kozma hit well in a tiny sample late last year, but cannot field and certainly can’t hit. He might be the worst full-time player in all of baseball. Fortunately for them, that’s there only real position of weakness. Slugger Matt Adams waits in the wings to play first or the outfield, and uber-prospect Oscar Taveras is likely Beltran’s heir apparent in right field.

The pitching staff isn’t elite but isn’t too shabby. Adam Wainwright performed admirably in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, and is a true ace when he’s right. Jamie Garcia has good stuff but has been a bit of an underachiever during his career. Jake Westbrook is a solid innings-eater who gets tons of ground balls. Lance Lynn had a breakout season last year, though he tired a bit at the end and was briefly moved to the bullpen. Shelby Miller is the team’s top pitching prospect and beat out Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal for the fifth spot, with Kelly and Rosenthal now slated for bullpen duty. Miller has big upside and could join Wainwright as an ace someday, if he improves his control. Veteran Chris Carpenter would normally join Wainwright at the top of the rotation but his career might be over after a myriad of injuries. Despite closer Jason Motte sustaining an elbow injury, the bullpen remains pretty deep. Mitchell Boggs will serve as fill-in closer/eventual set-up man, but frankly it doesn’t matter because pretty much everyone in their bullpen is different shades of awesome, despite employing two lefty specialists for some reason.

Roster

Catcher: Yadier Molina, Tony Cruz
First Base: Allen Craig, Matt Adams
Second Base: Matt Carpenter 
Shortstop: Pete Kozma 
Third Base: David Freese (DL) 
Outfield: Matt Holliday, Jon Jay, Carlos Beltran, Shane Robinson
Utility: Daniel Descalso, Ty Wiggington, Ryan Jackson 
Starting Pitchers: Adam Wainwright, Jamie Garcia, Jake Westbrook, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller 
Relief Pitchers: Trevor Rosenthal, Randy Choate, Mark Rzepchinakskjfkalakfnklasi, Joe Kelly, Fernando Salas, Edward Mujica, Mitchell Boggs, Jason Motte (DL) 

Milwaukee Brewers

Notable additions: Alex Gonzalez (re-signed), Kyle Lohse (FA), Tom Gorzelanny (FA), Michael Gonzalez (FA), Michael Olmsted (FA), Yuniesky Betancourt (FA), Burke Badenhop (trade)

Notable losses: Shaun Marcum (FA), Nyjer Morgan (FA), Kameron Loe (FA), Jose Veras (FA), Manny Parra (FA), Tim Dillard (FA)

The Brewers are coming off a bizarre season, where they were pretty awful for most of the season before lighting the planet on fire in September and getting within a game and a half of a playoff spot. The offense was the best in the NL, the bullpen one of the worst baseball has ever seen. The rotation was a revolving door with Zack Greinke traded, Shaun Marcum and Chris Narveson injured, and Randy Wolf getting released after a spectacular implosion. This season, they’ll have few questions on offense but a lot of questions on the pitching side.

The offense is expected to have some regression after last season, but is well-rounded nonetheless. Norichika Aoki and Rickie Weeks are solid on-base guys at the top of the lineup, though they achieve it in very different ways (Aoki with hits, Weeks with walks). Ryan Braun is one of the best players in baseball, and is no longer an eyesore in left field. Aramis Ramirez is coming off a career year both offensively and defensively, which is weird considering it was his age-34 season. Catcher Jonathan Lucroy is quickly developing into one of the better all-around catchers in the game, though how good his bat really is remains to be seen. The same goes for Carlos Gomez, who finally got enough at-bats to let his power show, but his plate discipline is still an issue. He’s so good defensively that whatever offense he provides is gravy. Jean Segura is the young shortstop who’s kind of a wild card. He also struggles with plate discipline, but has a good hit tool and some power potential. First base is a mess until Corey Hart returns from injury. Former shortstop Alex Gonzalez is expected to fill in, which is only slightly less disgusting than Yuniesky Betancourt playing there. The bench is unsettled with Taylor Green and Jeff Bianchi hurt, but Logan Schafer, Khris Davis, and Martin Maldonado should all be solid backups. Yuni Betancourt still sucks really bad.

The rotation is deep on candidates but low on certainty. Yovani Gallardo is as reliable as a pitcher can get, but he’s the only known quantity. Kyle Lohse should at least be average, but won’t repeat his St. Louis performance. Marco Estrada and Mike Fiers had breakouts last year and are very similar pitchers skill-wise, but Estrada has a little more upside. Wily Peralta is the organization’s top prospect and won a rotation spot in camp. He has #2 starter upside but needs to sharpen his control. Chris Narveson (who’ll start in the bullpen), Mark Rogers (on the DL while he builds up arm strength), Hiram Burgos, Tyler Thornburg, and Johnny Hellweg are potential replacements if one or more starters struggle. The bullpen can’t possibly be worse than last season but is still isn’t terrific. Closer John Axford upped his velocity and developed his slider last year, but his control faltered and he became homer-prone. Jim Henderson will probably set up but I’m making the bold prediction that Brandon Kintzler will take over there at some point. Narveson, Alfredo Figaro, Burke Badenhop, and Tom Gorzelanny provide some length and versatility, which could be key if the young starters struggle to provide innings. Michael Olmsted will start the year in AAA, but is an intriguing power arm who will likely make an impact at some point.

Roster

Catcher: Jonathan Lucroy, Martin Maldonado 
First Base: Corey Hart (DL), Alex Gonzalez 
Second Base: Rickie Weeks 
Third Base: Aramis Ramirez 
Shortstop: Jean Segura 
Outfield: Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Norichika Aoki, Logan Schafer, Khris Davis
Utility: Yuniesky Betancourt, Jeff Bianchi (DL), Taylor Green (DL)
Starting Pitchers: Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Wily Peralta, Marco Estrada, Mike Fiers 
Relief Pitchers: Alfredo Figaro, Chris Narveson, Burke Badenhop, Michael Gonzalez, Brandon Kintzler, Jim Henderson, Tom Gorzelanny, John Axford 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Notable additions: Francisco Liriano (FA), Jonathan Sanchez (FA), John McDonald (trade), Mark Melancon (trade), Jerry Sands (trade)

Notable losses: Joel Hanrahan (trade), Brock Holt (trade), Rod Barajas (FA), Eric Bedard (FA)

The Pirates have spent each of the last two seasons as a Cinderella team in the first half and a disaster in the second half. They haven’t had a winning season in over 20 years, but there are many people who think this could be the year they break out. I’m not one of those people. The offense is shallow around Andrew McCutchen and the pitching isn’t exactly loaded with reliability. The farm system is loaded but I can’t buy mid-season call-ups greatly altering the makeup of this roster, and certainly not greatly affecting the win-loss record.

The offense seems to be built to "swing and pray". Andrew McCutchen is legit MVP candidate in center field, but after him everyone else is either greatly flawed or bad. Second baseman Neil Walker is good at everything but great at nothing. Pedro Alvarez has titanic power but swings and misses too much and is an unmitigated disaster defensively. Garrett Jones and Travis Snider should be platoon players. Jones’ possible platoon mate, Gaby Sanchez, kinda sucks. Starling Marte and Russell Martin have power but don’t make much contact. Clint Barmes fields great but hits nothing. The defense overall is pretty good, arguably the best in the division. As long as they don’t make Garrett Jones play in the outfield, that is.

A.J. Burnett getting trolled on Opening Day.

The pitching is the team’s bread and butter. AJ Burnett is coming off a fantastic year after being a disappointment in New York. Burnett hasn’t shown the ability to be consistent year-to-year though. James McDonald was a breakout star in the first half of 2012 but couldn’t find the strike zone in the second half and quickly devolved into a mess. Wandy Rodriguez is fine as a third starter, he’s the definition of reliable. Jonathan Sanchez is hilarious. Jeff Locke will hold down the fifth spot until either Francisco Liriano (also kinda hilarious) or Jeff Karstens return from injury or one of the youngsters (Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Kyle McPherson) is ready. The bullpen should be solid. Jason Grilli has resurrected his career in Pittsburgh and will be the closer. His fastball-slider combo has been deadly, though he was a little homer-prone last year. Mark Melancon, Tony Watson, and Jared Hughes are all promising young pitchers. Justin Wilson and Jeanmar Gomez both lost out on rotation spots but can fill in there if needed.

Roster

Catcher: Russell Martin, Michael McKenry 
First Base: Garrett Jones, Gaby Sanchez 
Second Base: Neil Walker 
Shortstop: Clint Barmes
Third Base: Pedro Alvarez
Outfield: Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Travis Snider, Jose Tabata 
Utility: John McDonald, Josh Harrison 
Starting Pitchers: AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeff Locke, Jeff Karstens (DL), Francisco Liriano (DL), Charlie Morton (DL)
Relief Pitchers: Jeanmar Gomez, Justin Wilson, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson, Chris Leroux, Jason Grilli 

Chicago Cubs

Notable additions: Edwin Jackson (FA), Scott Baker (FA), Scott Feldman (FA), Carlos Villanueva (FA), Dioner Navarro (FA), Nate Schierholtz (FA), Scott Hairston (FA), Hector Rondon (Rule 5 pick)

Notable losses: Brain LaHair (FA), Jeff Baker (FA), Chris Volstad (FA), Manuel Corpas (FA), Tony Campana (trade)

Yep.

The Cubs are in a major rebuild mode, and frankly aren’t even trying to win games. While they are deeper and more talented than the 101-loss team from last year, they still aren’t very good and will probably try to move some of their veterans around the trade deadline to supplement their already impressive farm system. I like some of their major league pieces but they’re just not deep enough to be much of a factor.

The offense is pretty top-heavy. Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro are both impressive young players with bright futures. Castro has already proven to be a good hitter and should develop some power as he reaches his prime. He’s already shown improvement defensively. Rizzo is a solid all-around first baseman who should have 30+ homer power at his peak. Veteran Alfonso Soriano showed he wasn’t dead yet with a bounce-back season in 2012, and if he waives his no-trade clause he could be a hot trade target. After those three it gets really ugly. Most of the non-Soriano outfielders are platoon types with limited skill sets, and something called Luis Valbuena is starting at third base. Catcher Wellington Castillo has a little bit of potential, but certainly won’t be a star. Second baseman Darwin Barney is a tremendous defensive player but has a noodle for a bat.

Jeff Samardzija had a breakout season in 2012 (his first as a starting pitcher), and has impressive stuff. He may not be an ace but should be a solid #2-level starter. Free agent acquisition Edwin Jackson is solid innings-eater with some decent strikeout ability. Travis Wood, Scott Feldman, and Carlos Villanueva fill out the rotation but none of them are particularly inspiring. Scott Baker and Matt Garza are both hurt but will claim rotation spots when healthy. The bullpen is pretty awful. Shawn Camp is a solid workhorse but if he’s their best reliever then there’s a problem. Kyuji Fujikawa was signed out of Japan to likely be the set-up man but there’s no telling what he’ll do. Japanese relievers tend to do well in the States so I imagine he’ll pitch well enough and may even seize the closer role at some point. Carlos Marmol is the current closer but never met a hitter he didn’t want to walk. He allowed 45 walks in 55 1/3 innings last year, which is really a feat to behold. Despite the control problems, he doesn’t give up many hits and gets enough strikeouts to maintain relevance. The Cubs are hoping they can trick someone into trading for him. Hector Rondon is a little interesting and might figure into a leverage role at some point. He’s flashed good strikeout-to-walk numbers as a starter in the minors. Michael Bowden and James Russell are okay but whatever.

Roster

Catcher: Wellington Castillo, Dioner Navarro, Steve Clevenger 
First Base: Anthony Rizzo 
Second Base: Darwin Barney (DL) 
Shortstop: Starlin Castro 
Third Base: Luis Valbuena, Ian Stewart (DL) 
Outfield: Alfonso Soriano, David DeJesus, Nate Schierholtz, Scott Hairston, Dave Sappelt 
Utility: Brent Lillibridge, Alberto Gonzalez 
Starting Pitchers: Jeff Samardzija, Matt Garza (DL), Scott Baker (DL), Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood, Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva 
Relief Pitchers: Hector Rondon, Hisonori Takahashi, James Russell, Michael Bowden, Shawn Camp, Kyuji Fujikawa, Carlos Marmol 

Projected Standings

Cincinnati Reds (95-67, first place, NL Central Champions)
St. Louis Cardinals (93-69, second place, second Wild Card)
Milwaukee Brewers (84-78, third place)
Pittsburgh Pirates (75- 87, fourth place)
Chicago Cubs (70-92, fifth place)

I think this division is pretty clear-cut. Two really good teams (St. Louis and Cincinnati), one kinda okay team (Milwaukee), and two bad teams with promising futures (Pittsburgh and Chicago). The hip thing to do is suggest that the Pirates might be good or the Cubs might make some noise, but that’s frankly wishful thinking. There should be two playoff teams in this division and not a whole lot of drama after that. 

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Jerry Eldred (@jheldred)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu, @jheldred, @B_Toom_3, and @olewr7. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)

Brewers Sign Kyle Lohse

I woke up this morning (or afternoon, depending on if you view noon as “morning”) to the news that the Brewers signed starting pitcher and former Cardinal Kyle Lohse. I hoped I was dreaming, but I knew I really wasn’t. What I had feared for months had come true - with all the decent starting pitchers on the market, the Brewers would settle on the wrong one. Not even 24 hours ago, it seemed set that the Brewers would go into the 2013 season with a youth movement of sorts in the pitching staff, viewing 2013 as a minor rebuilding year. Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, Mike Fiers, Chris Narveson, and prospect Wily Peralta were set to be the rotation, at least while Mark Rogers built up his arm strength on the DL. Now.....Peralta is likely heading back to the minors for a 34-year old pitcher who’s not good.

This guy.

To the casual fan, this seems like a reasonable deal. Lohse is coming off a career year in St. Louis where he put up a 16-3 record in an impressive 211 innings with a shiny 2.86 ERA. He rarely walked hitters or gave up home runs. On the surface, a 3-year, $33 million-dollar deal for such a pitcher seems like a steal. But there’s so much more than what meets the eye. Let me explain.

As I mentioned earlier, Lohse pitched for the Cardinals not only last year, but for the last five seasons. Three of those years were solid or good, two of those seasons were awful. Prior to his Cardinals career, he was pretty much just awful. The Cardinals have a history of finding value in scrap-heap pitchers (Chris Carpenter, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Piniero, Braden Looper, etc.) and Lohse was no different. But I’m not willing to say he’s just a new pitcher and will continue his success in Milwaukee.

First, he’s 34. Signing old pitchers is not good business, as Brewers fans surely should be aware of. Second, he’s pitched the last few seasons in a pitcher-friendly ballpark that suppresses home runs. That last part is important because he’s a flyball pitcher that doesn’t strike many hitters out. Miller Park is very homer-friendly and as a result more of those fly balls that Lohse induces are likely heading over the fence. Third, advanced stats suggest that Lohse got a little lucky the last two years, with batted balls turning into outs at a higher-than-normal rate as well as a high number of baserunners stranded. While it’s possible he has some kind of skill in those areas that we don’t know about, if those numbers regress to the mean, you’re looking at a very ordinary pitcher at best. Even if he outperforms his peripherals, he’s stuck in a park that doesn’t match his skills.

The likelihood of Lohse outperforming Peralta (who’s waaaaay cheaper) this season seems low, and the gained service time from Peralta starting in the minors pales to the ultimate price the Brewers are paying. Not only is it a high monetary price tag, but the Brewers have to give up their first round pick to sign Lohse (meaning the rival Cardinals get an extra pick), since he’s a type-A free agent. That is a heavy cost for a team with a weak farm system, especially one that’s only on the periphery of a playoff race, not entrenched in it. The knee-jerk reaction may be to blame General Manager Doug Melvin, but it’s entirely likely he had no part in this. Owner Mark Attanasio had been in contact with Lohse’s agent, Scott Boras, and the possibility loomed that Attanasio would bypass Melvin (who didn’t want to give up the draft pick) to sign Lohse. This especially seems odd considering Attanasio just signed Melvin to an extension last year, and now Mark is basically undermining his General Manager to sign a player who’s not worth the price they’re paying. But Attanasio values winning at all costs, even though I doubt Lohse will contribute the wins the Brewers require of him.

All in all, Lohse will probably be okay, an average starter that eats innings but can’t put them over the top. Which is fine for most teams, but not for a team like the Brewers that’s trying to limit payroll and develop young pitchers. It’s another frustrating move from an increasingly frustrating organization. At least Melvin can’t be fired if this move goes badly....I hope.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Jerry Eldred (@jheldred)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu, @jheldred, @B_Toom_3, and @olewr7. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)