Three Things To Watch This Spring For The Brewers

Tweet

As pitchers and catchers report to camp for the Milwaukee Brewers, many questions remain unanswered. Although the progression of Spring Training will provide clarity to these questions that arose during the offseason, here are a few things to watch during this Spring Training for The Crew.

1. Who's on first? Who's on second?

There will be major competition to two positions throughout spring as there is a three way (maybe even a four way) battle at for a two-man platoon of first base and a two-man battle for playing time at second base.

Juan Francisco will be joined by either Mark Reynolds or Lyle Overbay on the Opening Day 25 man roster once the dust settles from Spring Training. Both Reynolds and Overbay were signed on minor league deals with invites to major league spring training to duke it out for a starting first base position. Unless there is an injury, I don't see how Lyle Overbay makes the 25 man roster. I really think this one may be locked up before spring training even begins. Could a name like Sean Halton or Hunter Morris emerge as a candidate as well? I'd say yes, but there's a reason why the Brewers went out and signed Reynolds and Overbay in the first place.

As for second base, either Rickie Weeks or Scooter Gennett will be starting at second base on Opening Day while the other will ride the bench and enjoy some sunflower seeds and Gatorade. No matter who starts and who doesn't on Opening Day, though, this will be a platoon just like first base. Who ever plays and who doesn't will ultimately reflect on the pitching match-up and obviously who's swinging the hot bat and who's not. Earlier in the offseason, Ron Roenicke implied that Scooter Gennett was the favorite to be the starting second baseman heading into the 2014 season, but all of that can change with a hot spring by the recently married Rickie Weeks.


2. Who will take over the lead off duties?

The Brewers have an extremely large void at the lead off spot in the batting order now that Norichika Aoki is gone as he was traded to the Royals earlier this offseason for south-paw pitcher Will Smith. The plus about Aoki is that he always found a way to get on base. Infield singles, bunting, hit by pitches, walking...he found a way to get on. Aoki also lead the entire league in at bats per strikeout at 14.9. In order to replicate the same offensive statistics as the Brewers did last year, they will need to be careful on who they put in that role.

Because of his speed, the obvious candidate that comes to mind for some would be Carlos Gomez. He had a break out year last season and is set up to have an even bigger one this year. That being said, Carlos is not known for being patient at the plate and tends to strike out more often than not. Granted he set personal records in hits (152), batting average (.284), on base % (.338), stolen bases (40), and walks (37) last season, he also set a personal record in strikeouts (146). I personally think he's better suited batting in the two-hole behind the lead-off hitter or in the 6th spot in the order if his power stroke returns. His placement depends on who else is in the lineup that day.

The most realistic candidate for the leadoff spot is Jean Segura. He's got about the same amount of speed as Carlos Gomez. He offers the same attributes and Nori Aoki did as a lead off hitter. Segura's on base percentage of .329 is right on cue with the league average (.329). Segura and Aoki have the same exact RC/9 (runs created per 9 innings/27 outs). Basically, if you took nine Jean Seguras or nine Nori Aokis and put them in a lineup, they would produce 4.8 runs per game. They both have near identical offensive win % (Jean is .543, Nori is .545) Just like RC/9, if you have nine of either player, you would win 54% of your games. One of my favorite advanced stats to look at for a lead off hitter is total average. You find that by adding up total bases, hit by pitches, walks, and stolen bases (subtract caught stealing) and divide that by subtracting hits from at bats and then adding caught stealing and ground in to double players (Total Bases + HBP + BB + SB - CS) / (AB - H + CS + GIDP). By doing that, you'll find that Jean Segura beats out Nori Aoki's .660 total average with a .699 total average of his own.

(Note: Scooter Gennett has a lot to work on before he can even be considered as a lead off hitter.)

My quick projected lineup for opening day:

(Assuming LHP Mike Minor is Atlanta's Opening Day Starter)

1. Jean Segura
2. Carlos Gomez
3. Ryan Braun
4. Aramis Ramirez
5. Mark Reynolds
6. Jonathon Lucroy
7. Rickie Weeks
8. Khris Davis
9. Yovani Gallardo

(Assuming RHP Kris Medlen is Atlanta's Opening Day Starter)

1. Jean Segura
2. Scooter Gennett
3. Ryan Braun
4. Aramis Ramirez
5. Jonathon Lucroy
6. Carlos Gomez
7. Juan Francisco
8. Khris Davis
9. Yovani Gallardo


3. Who will round out the final spots of the bullpen?

The bullpen has between four to five spots already filled. You'd have to assume that Jim Henderson, Francisco Rodriguez, Brandon Kintzler, Tom Gorzelanny, and Will Smith all have bullpen spots secured. That being said, there are about five more guys available for the Brewers to pick from to fill the final two spots.

Tyler Thornburg - With the signing of Matt Garza, Tyler Thornburg was unfortunately bumped from the starting rotation. He could still make the team, but he'll have to settle for a bullpen role. If he has a strong spring and the Brewers think he's more valuable in the Brewers bullpen rather in the Sounds starting rotation, he could take one of the final spots.

Rob Wooten - We got to see Rob for the first time last season. He produced a respectable 3-1 record, 3.90 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 27.2 innings pitched. He has good control and movement on his low-90s fastball. He makes a case to make the bullpen.

Alfredo Figaro - The flamethrower could find his way back into the bullpen if the Brewers feel they need his arm back in there. I, however, feel Figaro will be DFA'd when a spot for Mark Reynolds needs to be cleared.

Michael Blazek - Acquired from the Cardinals last season in which we sent them John Axford, some say Michael Blazek is John Axford 2.0. Big arm with closer potential. He'll definitely get a serious look.

Photo: brewers.com

Wei-Chung Wang - A Rule 5 Draft pick, Wang (right) would have to stay on the Brewers' 25 man roster for the entire season. Otherwise, he'd be sent back to the Pirates unless the Brewers and Pirates work out some sort of deal. Wang will be given a look this spring, but it's going to be difficult for him to stay on the team when he's never pitched passed rookie ball. He may end up becoming a trade chip if he pitches well.

Outside looking in: Donovan Hand, Jimmy Nelson, Zach Duke, Michael Olmsted.

Hopefully this gets everyone even more excited for Brewers baseball! 43 days until Opening Day. 43 days.


Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Packers, Brewers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live in-game commentary, breaking news, rumors, previews, and post game discussion. Follow the entire writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, and @10iskristin

Brewers to Sign a Dominican Third Base Prospect?

Tweet

UPDATE 2/12/14 7:08am - Dominican July 2 prospect Yirver Gilbert Lara is reportedly said by some scouts to have agreed to a $3.2MM signing bonus with the Brewers. Lara's trainer, Jaime Ramos, told MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez that "there is nothing concrete and there are still a lot of teams interested in him," including the Brewers, Royals, Yankees, and Twins. Whether or not Lara lands in Milwaukee, explain Sanchez and his MLB.com colleague Adam McCalvy, the Brewers appear set to embark on greatly increased levels of international spending and player development efforts. (The team's largest international bonus awards to date are just $800K.) [via MLBTradeRumors.com]

Scout.com's Kiley McDaniel posted an article a few days ago looking ahead to the July 2nd market for international prospects. He mentions a rumor that Dominican third baseman Gilbert Lara already has a $3.2MM deal in place with the Milwaukee Brewers, who he mentions are not generally known for splashy international signings. (via MLBTradeRumors.com)

Here is the excerpt from Kiley's article:

"Gilbert Lara has the loose, handsy, fluid swing that scouts are looking for with the plus bat speed and raw power to project as a future All-Star. He hit a number of balls out to left field at the heavily scouted MLB showcase and hit a triple and homerun in the game portion of the event. The chatter among scouts is the Dominican third baseman has an agreement with the Milwaukee Brewers for a $3.2 million bonus"

Here is a link to a page I found on Gilbert Lara that has a scouting video of him. He's listed at a shortstop, but will likely see his services utilized at third base in the big leagues.

This is a big deal for the Brewers, as mentioned above they tend to stay out of the "big name" international guys. So, this is very promising to see our scouting department and financial staff are seeing eye to eye regarding international prospects. Norichika Aoki was also a surprise a few years back when the Brewers were top bidder on him.

Nothing will be official until July 2nd, but Brewers fans should be very excited about this.


Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Packers, Brewers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live in-game commentary, breaking news, rumors, previews, and post game discussion. Follow the entire writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, and @10iskristin

Brewers Traded Norichika Aoki, Acquire Left Handed Pitcher

Tweet

Aoki (left), Smith (right). In case you didn't know.

This morning the Milwaukee Brewers agreed to trade outfielder Norichika Aoki to the Kansas City Royals for left handed pitcher Will Smith. With this trade, the Brewers officially announced that Ryan Braun will be making the move from left to right field this spring. I'll get into Will Smith in a bit, but first let's look at what the departure of Nori Aoki does to our outfield depth.

And, by depth, I mean log jam. The Brewers had three solid starting outfielders to start the 2013 season in Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, and Norichika Aoki. Sitting behind them were Khris Davis, Logan Schafer, and Caleb Gindl. Those three are very sound outfielders that could honestly be starters on other baseball teams. Heck, even in the minors the Brewers have Kentrail Davis who we will likely lose in the Rule 5 draft. Moving Aoki allows the Brewers to free up space for the younger class to get Big League playing time.

Becoming a free agent after the 2014 season, this trade should come at now surprise. People will claim we should have gotten more for Nori, but I'll agree to disagree with that. All signs pointed to a downgrade in productivity this season by Aoki. For one, he lost a full point of oWAR between the 2012 and 2013 seasons. In 2012, Aoki attempted 38 stolen bases and converted 30 of them. In 2013, he attempted 32 stolen bases but only converted 20 of them. He was also picked off a total of 7 times in 2013. That's a huge difference and a sign of declining speed.

Defensively, the Royals are getting a premium player. Through two seasons with the Brewers, Aoki carries a .989 Fielding %. In 2013, Aoki had 13 defensive runs saved above average (Rdrs) which is pretty decent for a right fielder. In comparison, Jason Heyward of the Braves had 15 Rdrs, who is considered one of the top defensive right fielders in the game.

So, who is the lead-off hitter now you ask? You have a couple different options.

vs. LHP lineup

1. Jean Segura
2. Carlos Gomez
3. Ryan Braun
4. Aramis Ramirez
5. Jonathan Lucroy
6. Khris Davis
7. Fat Juan/Corey Hart (?)
8. Rickie Weeks
9. Pitcher

vs. RHP lineup

1. Scooter Gennett
2. Jean Segura
3. Ryan Braun
4. Aramis Ramirez
5. Carlos Gomez
6. Jonathan Lucroy
7. Khris Davis
8. Fat Juan/Corey Hart (?)
9. Pitcher

In some cases you could have Carlos Gomez lead off too. But, it won't be hard to figure out or lineup. RRR will likely play around with his lineups in spring to figure that out. I'm looking forward to see how the club sorts out their bench for Opening Day. The team basically has three spots locked up already in Martin Maldonado, Scooter Gennett, and whoever platoons with Juan Francisco. You need to add a back up short stop and then decide between Logan Schafer or Caleb Gindl as your 4th outfielder. In my opinion, you go with speed and defense and stick Logan in there.

Now, onto the pitcher the Brewers acquired.

Will Smith is a 24 year old left handed pitcher who will likely end up in the bullpen for the 2014 season. He has potential to work his way into the rotation, but he has some work to do to get there. He is arbitration eligible in 2016 and a free agent in 2020. Will had an impressive turnaround in 2013 as a reliever from a somewhat disastrous 2012 as a starter. Will increased his K/9 from 5.9 to 11.6 while reducing his BB/9 from 3.3 to 1.9. Will has an insanely good slider. Researched by the great Alec Dopp, Will Smith's slider held batters to .093/.130/.186 line in 2013 and generated 55.6% chase rate, which was the 2nd highest among pitchers with 33 IP or more.

A look at opponents' swing rate against Will Smith's slider last season. More than 1/2 were on non-strikes. #Brewers pic.twitter.com/20D63HK4S2
— Alec Dopp (@alecdopp) December 5, 2013

Overlooking the trade, I'd give it a B-. You trade a valuable outfielder who is blatantly getting older and slower. He became expendable with the emergence of Khris Davis and is a free agent after the 2014 season. In return you get a young left handed arm, which is something the Brewers' organization was missing. I'd give it a higher grade because I do believe we could have squeezed out an additional player for Nori. The Brewers have enough dead weight on the 40 man roster where we would be okay to outright someone.

I will miss Nori Aoki. The production he gave the Brewers of both sides of the game were greatly appreciated and recognized. The organization loses a humble, passionate player that brought a lot of excitement to The Keg. From his walk up music to his unforgettable inside the park home run, Nori, you were a fun player to watch. Best of luck to you in Kansas City. Enjoy their barbeque.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, and @10iskristin.

Recapping 2013 for the Milwaukee Brewers - Hitters

Tweet

Last week I wrote about the Milwaukee Brewers pitching in 2013 and in today’s second installment, I will cover the team’s hitting in 2013 and look forward to where the crew stands headed into next season. The team had 19 different position players swing a bat throughout the course of the season. Let’s take a look at how they fared.

First base was particularly manned by Alex Gonzalez and Yuniesky Betancourt early on with Corey Hart and Mat Gamel lost for the season with knee injuries. Gonzalez put on a woeful display at the plate, hitting just .177 in 113 at bats with 8 RBI. Gonzalez, who has been primarily praised for his excellent shortstop play, never really seemed to get things going before being released by the Brewers on June 3rd. Betancourt found himself as the team’s regular first baseman, and he delivered early on. Yuni hit .280 in the month of April with 6 home runs and 21 RBI. Bloggers and stat freaks all throughout Wisconsin were amazed at the impact Betancourt’s bat had in the lineup and thought for a short period of time that he might be able to put together a solid season. In true Yuni B fashion, however, the veteran returned to form, hitting just .190 in May. Yuni finished at .212 for the year with 13 home runs and 46 RBI. Yes, he had nearly half of his home runs and RBI in the month of April alone. On the same day the club cut ties with Gonzalez, they acquired the powerful Juan Francisco from Atlanta. Francisco came in with a reputation for hitting the ball hard, but rarely getting on base. He lived up to that reputation in the following months with the crew. Francisco did manage to slug 13 home runs, good for third on the team, but struggled mightily, hitting just .221 overall and getting on base at a miserable .300 clip. The Brewers called up Sean Halton from AAA Nashville on June 26th for his first of three stints with the big league club to pick up first base duties after an impressive showing with the Sounds where he hit .288 with nine home runs to start the season. Halton showed flashes of power and played decent defense at the position while hitting .238 overall. He brings some versatility as he also spent some time in left field. It is doubtful that the club sees Halton as a long term solution at first base, however, but more as a bridge to the anticipated arrival of Hunter Morris down the road. I think it is in the best interest of General Manager Doug Melvin to bring Corey Hart back for 2014 and see what he still has in the tank before looking to Morris in the long term. Mat Gamel was lost on waivers to the Cubs shortly after the regular season ended and we wish him the best as he tries to put a full season together.

Second base was manned by two players throughout the season for the Brewers. Rickie Weeks continued to under perform at the plate and faced his usual amount of scrutiny as he hit just .209 and saw a significant drop in home runs, clearing the fence just 10 times. He was lost for the season after having surgery to repair a torn hamstring in early August. Heralded prospect Scooter Gennett was handed the reins to the second base job and didn’t disappoint. Scooter hit .324 for the season and put up surprising power numbers, belting 6 home runs in his limited time in the starting role. He plays good defense and is just 23 years old. I see the Brewers entering 2014 with Gennett as the starting second baseman, even if a healthy Weeks returns. Look for Gennett to hit around .300 and play with great energy as the every-day second baseman.

Third base, much like first, was another position where injuries plagued the Brewers in 2013. After a terrific season in 2012 where he hit .300 with 27 home runs and 105 RBI while garnering a great deal of attention on defense, Aramis Ramirez played in just 92 games in 2013, hitting .283 with 12 home runs and 49 RBI. Ramirez is under contract for one more season with the crew, but will be 36 in June and certainly has his best years behind him. If the club is to contend in 2014 however, a strong, healthy season will be needed from the veteran. Jeff Bianchi, who played some shortstop as well, was the primary replacement for Ramirez and hit .237 with just one home run and 25 RBI while appearing in 100 games, but did particularly well in the second half of the season, hitting .274. Bianchi is fine in a bench role, but I don’t see him as a long term solution for the Brewers at any position. Nick Delmonico, acquired from the Orioles mid-season for Francisco Rodriguez shows a lot of promise and could be the club’s future third baseman, but is just 21 and remains a couple seasons away from the major leagues. I applaud Melvin for going out and getting a guy of value for Rodriguez when he had the chance.

Shortstop was a bright sport for the club in 2013 thanks to the emergence of Jean Segura. Another piece acquired by Melvin in a trade, Segura appeared in 44 games with the crew at the end of 2012 after being acquired in the Zack Greinke deal at the deadline. Segura showed flashes of brilliance, batting .294 with 12 home runs and 49 RBI while finishing second in the national league with 44 stolen bases. He was also impressive on defense and made his first All-Star game after hitting .325 in the season’s first half. While his numbers did drop off significantly in the latter half of the year, the organization is hoping the amount of baseball Segura had played without time off is to blame. However you look at it, the club has to be excited about their future at shortstop, as Segura is just 23 and currently locked up through 2018.

The Brewers entered 2013 feeling confident that they had one of the better pairs of catchers in the national league. Jonathan Lucroy, still just 27 and despite an injury shortened 2012, was coming off his best season in the major leagues, and the emergence of youngster Martin Maldonado was certainly something to be excited about. While Maldonado faced his share of struggles at the plate, Lucroy continue to show he belongs in mention with the better catchers in all of baseball. Luc proved to be the veteran leader of the club after the loss of Ryan Braun and put up the numbers to support it. He hit an even .280 with 18 home runs and 82 RBI while playing in 147 games. The club primarily used Maldonado to catch rookie Wily Peralta and he struggled to hit just .169. Lucroy proved his leadership by requesting that manager Ron Roenicke play him at first base on days that he wasn’t catching. Roenicke gave it a try and Lucroy was able to show enough at first that the crew felt comfortable enough to run him out there multiple times. In addition to their offense, both catchers again proved to be valuable behind the dish. Maldonado has developed a reputation as one of the better throwing catchers in the game and Lucroy is commonly mentioned among the best in all of baseball at framing pitches. Look for Maldonado’s numbers to improve in his third season and Lucroy to remain right around the .280 mark and provide solid leadership.

After terrific seasons from Norichika Aoki and Carlos Gomez in 2012, the Brewers felt they had one of the better outfields in the national league heading into 2013 with a healthy Ryan Braun. This quickly changed as Braun appeared in just 61 games before a season ending suspension due to his involvement with performance enhancing drugs. Braun was good in the limited playing time he had, hitting .298 with 9 home runs and 38 RBI but didn’t seem as lively on the base paths as he has been in years past, swiping just 4 bases. He will return in 2014 with much to prove to a fan base that greatly needs another MVP like season from the slugger to regain their trust. Aoki was solid again, batting .286 with 8 home runs and 37 RBI while stealing 20 bases but is a big question mark moving forward. The Brewers can choose to pick up Aoki’s option and keep him in Milwaukee for 2014 or allow him to become a free agent and sign elsewhere. This will likely be a tough decision for Melvin and company as Aoki has been nothing short of impressive and on a very team friendly deal for the past two years. That being said, the club has a number of impressive young outfielders banging on the door and ready to play regularly in the big leagues. Aoki will be 32 in January and one can only wonder how long he can keep up this type of production. Carlos Gomez signed a three year extension good for $24 million in March thanks to his impressive 2012 and responded by having an even more impressive 2013. Gomez got off to an incredibly hot start, hitting .295 in the season’s first half and clubbing 14 home runs while playing the best defense among center fielders in the national league. His second half numbers weren’t quite as impressive, but the gold glove favorite still finished with a .284 average, 24 home runs and 73 RBI while stealing 40 bases and robbing multiple home runs in the outfield. He enters 2014 at just 28 years of age and expectations to hit .300 and once again provide good speed and pop.

Logan Schafer, Caleb Gindl and Khris Davis were three youngsters looking to make an impact on the major league club for the first time in 2013. All three proved they deserve a look at a possible starting job moving forward and leave the Brewers pondering whether to exercise Aoki’s option. Davis was particularly impressive, appearing in just 56 games but smacking 11 home runs. The left fielder got a particularly long look thanks to the suspension to Braun and wowed players, coaches, and fans with his impressive display of power. In addition to the home runs, Davis hit .279 and drove in 27. His defense is not something be excited about, however, and he seems confined to left field. Logan Schafer appeared in 134 games and hit just .211, but showed great promise with speed, hustle, and an ability to make plays on defense. Caleb Gindl was criticized early for his struggles in the outfield and needs to get a handle on his defensive skill set, but was fairly impressive at the plate. The 25 year old hit .245 in the season’s second half with 5 home runs and 13 RBI. His defense needs to improve a great deal before he can be considered an every-day outfielder, but he has at least earned himself consideration for a bench spot heading into 2014. I think it would be best for the crew to allow Aoki to sign elsewhere and attempt to move Ryan Braun to right field. While it will be sad to see Aoki go, I feel the benefits of having Khris Davis play every day will be worth it. If Braun can make the switch to right, the club can play Davis and Gindl in left and have Schafer back up Gomez in center. Look for good production out of this group as all three regulars could hit 25 home runs in 2014.

If the club can manage to bring back Corey Hart, I don’t think much is needed in the way of free agency from a hitting perspective heading into next season. This is a club that will lean heavily on its young stars in 2014, but they have proven they can produce.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Joseph Norton (@JoeP_Norton)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, and @10iskristin.

Who SHOULD the Brewers Move, and Who WILL They Move at the Deadline?

This season has indeed been disappointing to us all as Brewers fans, with a horrible win-loss record and the news of our beloved Ryan Braun out for the remainder of the season due to a PED suspension. But let’s not hang our hats on the season and call it a complete disappointment just yet. Remember last year when many Brewers fan didn’t want to part with Zack Greinke, holding on to a glimmer of hope that the team would be able to retain him in the offseason? Well, had they not traded Greinke, they still would not have signed him (the Dodgers were determined to win that battle) and we would not have the impressive Jean Segura leading our team, and the entire national league, in hits this season.

I think that this season can still yield some success for the Brewers, if Doug Melvin can make the right moves and acquire some promising pieces for the future. I like the move that sent Francisco Rodriguez to Baltimore for Nicky Delmonico last week. Giving up K-Rod, a guy that wasn’t even on our roster until mid May, for a top 5 prospect on any other team is a good deal in my eyes. But I think that there are still a few more potential moves that could be made to bring the Brewers some more talent that could benefit the team down the road. Below I take a look at the players that could be on the trading block and whether I think they SHOULD be traded, along with whether I believe they WILL be dealt. 

Michael Gonzalez – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes. WILL HE BE DEALT? YES

Gonzalez was a sought after piece in the offseason after posting an impressive 3.03 ERA in 2012 while allowing just 2 home runs. The Braves were a possible trade partner for Gonzalez but that changed when they acquired left hander Scott Downs from the Angles on Monday. Possible suitors remain however, as plenty of playoff contending teams could benefit from the services of a capable lefty like Gonzalez. The return might not be great, however, given Gonzalez has struggled at times this year and he is only signed through the end of the season.

John Axford – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? No. WILL HE BE DEALT? No

Axford has certainly had his ups and downs the past two seasons, but no one can forget his lights out season in 2011, and he is still a fairly young, capable late inning reliever. After struggling early on in the season, Axford ripped of a streak of 23 consecutive appearances without allowing a run, trying a Brewers franchise record. In addition to the impressive streak, the Ax-Man had his ERA was all the way down to 3.50 before allowing 2 earned runs against the Rockies on Sunday afternoon. I think it would be best for the Brewers to retain Axford to pair with Jim Henderson as the focal point of the bullpen moving forward.

Jim Henderson – SHOULD HE BE DEALTH? No. WILL HE BE DEALT? No

I feel that the Brewers should retain Henderson for the same reasons I think Axford needs to stay. He is a capable, fairly young late inning reliever who is signed to an affordable contract and has impressed in the opportunities he’s been given in a Brewers uniform. His ERA currently sits at an impressive 2.09 on the year and he has 12 saves in 15 chances. He is a bit of a feel good story as well, after enduring nearly 10 years in the minor leagues before earning a chance with the crew last season. Unless someone offers something Melvin can’t turn down, I do not think the Brewers will or should explore trade possibilities for Henderson.

Aramis Ramirez – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes. WILL HE BE DEALT? No.
 
This one is tough. A healthy Ramirez could be a very attractive trade chip for teams looking for a bat capable of driving in runs and a solid glove at third base. The holdup here is that Rammy has only played in a handful of games this season, it seems, and is progressing slowly in his recovery from a banged up left knee. Reports Tuesday morning said he tested the knee during batting practice on Monday, but has no idea when he will be ready to return to the lineup. I am still on the side of the fence saying to trade Ramirez for any valuable piece you can get, because I just don’t see him doing much for the club in the remainder of this season or next year. He will be 36 and in the final year of his contract in 2014, a season in which I don’t much expect the Brewers to be contenders. I think it would be wise of Melvin to try and move him, however I just don’t see it happening at this point.

Kyle Lohse – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes.  WILL HE BE DEALT? No.

I was not a happy camper when I heard that the Brewers signed Lohse to a three year, $33 Million contract on March 25th. I personally didn’t expect the team to contend this season and would have preferred to save the money and retain the first round pick we were forced to give up for signing him. That being said, I think that mistake can be rectified if Melvin can swing him for a prospect or two at the deadline. Lohse will turn 35 before next season but still provides value as a number two or three starter. He is off to a very good start this year, his ERA sitting at 3.22, and has shown no signs of slowing down. Again, I don’t expect the team to contend in 2014, so getting someone of value for Lohse seems like the best option here. However, I don’t see Melvin throwing in the towel just yet on 2014 and I feel that he considers Lohse a valuable piece to the team’s possible success moving forward. I don’t see him moving, unless someone offers a deal Doug can’t turn down.  

Yovani Gallardo – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? No. WILL HE BE DEALT? No.

Gallardo is signed through 2014, on a very team friendly deal considering he is the team’s number one starter. It has been rumored that several teams have been interested in the 27 year old, the Diamondbacks among them. I believe the major holdup here is that Gallardo isn’t pitching to his full potential, at just 8-9 with a 4.88 ERA on the year,  and wouldn’t bring the type of return that he is truly worth if Melvin decided to move him. Gallardo has been a Brewer his entire career, and I would like to see him remain a Brewer. I think the best thing to do would be to hold onto Yo at least until his value rises again. I simply do not see Melvin moving him for something less than what he is worth, which is all that he would get at this point. 

Nori Aoki – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes. WILL HE BE DEALT? No.

Everyone loves Nori, myself included, but I really believe that he needs to go. The Brewers have long been out of the running this season and I don’t expect them to be contenders again during Aoki’s contract. He is only signed through 2014 and Logan Schafer is knocking on the door. I think the crew could get good value here and open a spot for a budding star in Schafer. Plenty of teams would love to have Nori’s bat in their lineup and glove in their outfield. I believe Doug would be wise to try his best to move him, however I simply don’t see it happening at this point.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Joseph Norton (@JoeP_Norton)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @TABrown23, and @10iskristin.

Brewers First Half Report Card: Offense

As you very well know, baseball is a team sport, not an individual sport. However, I thought it would be fun to hand out grades based off of individual performances. Here’s a breakdown of how I think each Brewers position player has performed this year.

Yuniesky Betancourt (1B, 3B); D+

While he was somehow productive for the entire month of April (I’m still trying to figure out what exactly happened there), his play has been abysmal lately. He is currently on pace to break records that nobody wants to break. His defense isn’t completely horrible at first base, but if I never have to watch him play third base ever again, it will still be too soon. There are really only 4 things that you can count on Yuni to do anymore – pop up, strike out, hits into a double play, and run slower to first base at a slower pace than Lou Piniella walking to a pitching mound. Well, it seems like that long, anyways.

Ryan Braun (LF); B+

He’s had a terribly hard time trying to stay healthy this year and he is currently on the disabled list. There were a couple weeks at the end of April and in early May when he was providing typical Ryan Braun production, but after his thumb injury really started to bother him, he began striking out in bundles. Even if this is a “down year” for Braun, he still owns a .304 batting average and has batted in 36 runs this season. He has 9 home runs on the year, and has also hit two triples. He was still getting hits consistently before landing on the disabled list, but you could tell he was having a hard time swinging the bat. Hopefully once his thumb heals up, we will see the vintage Ryan Braun back in the 3-hole.

Nori Aoki (RF); B-

He has been a pleasant surprise for the Brewers for the past couple of seasons. While he has had a couple of cold spells this year, he has been relatively consistent offensively throughout his time in the big leagues. However, he is prone to getting thrown out on the bases fairly frequently. This is something the Brewers struggle with as a team, but I’ve noticed it with Nori more than any other player. This is not a trait that you want to have in your lead-off hitter, especially with a player such as Jean Segura hitting behind him. His defense also tends to be rather shaky at times. When you look at the statistics, they tell you that he is a good defender, but when you watch him play in a game, you see otherwise. He often takes poor routes while attempting to catch fly balls that most outfielders would catch easily. He also plays very deep in the outfield (I’m not sure if this is because this is what he is comfortable with, or if it’s because the Brewers coaching staff thinks that this is what’s best) and this allows the opponents to get singles more often than they would if he wouldn’t be playing at the warning track for every single player. Overall, he has been a solid player and provides good offense as a lead-off hitter, but when you’re getting picked off bases consistently and giving away runs on defense, this offsets your offense production.

Carlos Gomez (CF); A

If you would have told me before the season that on July 2^nd Gomez would have a batting average in the .300s, I would have asked you how much you have had to drink today. This is just a remarkable season for Gomez, and he keeps impressing Brewers fans more and more every day. His current splits are .309/.349/.557. His defense is also impeccable – exactly 1 fly ball has gotten over Gomez’s head this year, and that play resulted in an error. He makes playing center field look easy. (Although, after watching Nyjer Morgan play center field for the Brewers the last two seasons, a random little league player could make playing center field look easy… Kidding. Kind of). He does occasionally get picked off base when he probably shouldn’t, but he’s gotten better with that recently. He already has 16 stolen bases on the season and has only been caught stealing 3 times. He’s one of the few bright spots on the Brewers this year and I think he has a legitimate shot at finishing the year with a batting average in the .300s.

Logan Schafer (LF; CF; RF); C-

Logan saw limited playing time at the beginning of the season, but once Ryan Braun was placed on the disabled list, he’s taken over in left field for the majority of the games. While his offense hasn’t been very impressive this season, his defense has almost made up for it. He’s already gunned down 2 players at the plate this season from the outfield and covers a ton of ground on defense. He has plenty of speed, so I’m kind of surprised that he doesn’t try to bunt for base hits more often. Overall, an average/acceptable performance for someone who is trying to fill in for an MVP.

Aramis Ramirez (3B); B-

While he has been productive at times this year, he has been dealing with an injury since the beginning of the season when he slid into second base and jammed his knee in a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. This landed him on the disabled list and he still is not able to play every day. He currently has 47 hits, only 5 of which are homeruns. He also has 11 doubles. These aren’t exactly the kind of numbers that you want to see out of your cleanup hitter, and you have to believe that his knee injury is interfering with his power numbers this season. Hopefully he will able to regain full health and revert back to his pre-injury form.

Jean Segura (SS); A

Segura’s performance this year has probably come as an even bigger surprise to me than Gomez’s breakout year. Segura has impressed both offensively and defensively. He has struggled recently, but has delivered an outstanding performance so far this season. His current splits are .325/.358/.503. He also has 24 stolen bases on the year and has only been caught stealing 3 times. He shows incredible range at shortstop and has a very strong throwing arm; we’ve already seen him throw out plenty of base-runners from his knees. There’s not much more I can say about Segura other than he has been unbelievable this year. Poor Angels

Rickie Weeks (2B); C+

While his first six weeks or so of the season were completely terrible both offensively and defensively, he has been a hitting machine lately. I myself was about ready to give up on Weeks, but then at the beginning of June he started to prove all of the doubters wrong. He just won the Brewers’ player of the month award for June and has worked his way out of a platoon. I don’t know if some of his struggles at the plate were mental, or if the slight changes that he made to his batting mechanics helped or if there was some other reason for his struggles, but he has certainly earned his starting job back.

Jonathan Lucroy (C); A-

Lucroy also had a slow start offensively this season, but he has also been hitting a lot more recently. He is currently batting .267 and leads the team with 42 RBI. I don’t know if “clutch hitting” is real or not, but if it is, he has been the definition of clutch. Even when he was struggling, he always seemed to get his hits while there were runners in scoring position. He is also fantastic at framing the ball while catching. I gave him an A- because even though his offensive numbers aren’t as impressive as they have been in previous years, he has been very good at calling and catching games this year. People often give all of the credit to the pitchers when they have good performances, but Lucroy definitely makes the pitching staff better. (Or, should I say, not quite so horrible).

Martin Maldonado (C); C

Martín was never known for his hitting in the minor leagues, and that’s starting to show this season. He’s always been an excellent defensive catcher and has an outstanding throwing arm. His offense this season has not been good, but he’s done a good job calling and catching games. For a backup catcher, this production is about all you can ask for.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Kristin Zenz (@10iskristin)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @Mik3_Schu, and @10iskristin.

A Look Ahead – Where the Brewers Offense Could be in 2014

If you’re like me, this Brewers seasons has frustrated you to no end and you’re probably having a difficult time coming up with positive things to say about the team. At this point, the only non-negative things you can think of to say are laced with sarcasm. Or perhaps now you’re just content that no other players have been injured within the last week. That’s a good start…I think? Segura has been fun to watch, and Gomez has been a nice surprise, but other than that, this season has pretty much been a nightmare. Sure, the Brewers just won a series in Miami and are coming off a 6-0 win against the division rival Reds yesterday, but for the most part, there haven’t been a whole lot of positives this season. For me, I’d much rather think about the future of this franchise than dwell on their ho-hum play from 2013.

Corey Hart trips on blade of grass, placed on 365 Day DL.

Let’s look forward to 2014 and see how next season could possibly start out. The players that the Brewers could and should end up moving this year are third baseman Aramis Ramirez, right fielder Nori Aoki, bullpen pitchers Francisco Rodriguez, Michael Gonzalez and possibly John Axford and Jim Henderson. The Brewers should also look to see what they could get in return for starting pitchers Kyle Lohse and possibly Yovani Gallardo. Rickie Weeks could be a player that the Brewers would be willing to part ways with, but with his performance so far this season I doubt that any team would be interested in trading for him unless he really starts hitting. Corey Hart is a common name that keeps coming up, but at this point, nobody really knows if he will even be on his rehab assignment before the trade deadline. His injury has kept him out longer than expected, and the Brewers don’t think that he will be ready to play before the All Star Break. This will drastically diminish his trade value and probably discourage teams from wanting to trade for him. I also think there’s a big possibility that the Brewers try and bring him back on a one year deal for 2014. 

So, if the Brewers end up trading some or all of these players, that means that they are going to be going into rebuild mode, and there could be a handful of rookie debuts next year. Here is how I think the 2014 roster will shape up. 

Left Field – Ryan Braun. There is zero chance that the Brewers trade him and barring any sudden developments in a situation that I won’t mention, he will be the Brewers starting left fielder on opening day 2014.

Center Field – Carlos Gomez. Another player who isn’t going anywhere. Gomez just received an extension before the season started and has performed better than anyone could have possibly imagined this year – it’s almost like he resurrected his career right before our eyes. (Hey, so this is what it feels like to be a Cardinals fan). It’s a treat to watch him play defense, and his speed on the bags makes him one of the best base runners in the game.

Right Field – Logan Schafer. He’s shown the Brewers what he is capable of doing on the field this year – offensive and defensively. He has one of the Brewers’ best defensive plays of the year this year, gunning down Miguel Montero at home plate from left field in early April. His throwing arm is a thing of beauty, and he has been on fire at the plate lately. If Nori Aoki gets traded, I think Schafer will become the everyday right fielder.

Honestly, this is a better option at third base than Yuni B.

Third Base – This one is more of a question mark, but the Brewers have a couple of possibilities should they trade Aramis Ramirez. They have Taylor Green, who is currently out for this season with a hip injury. Jeff Bianchi, who is being used as a utility man for the Brewers right now, has the ability to play third base. The Brewers also have Juan Francisco, who is currently sharing time at first base with Yuniesky Betancourt, but is a natural third baseman. They could also allow Josh Prince some playing time. He was with the team earlier this year and is currently batting .255 with an OBP of .349 in Nashville. I don’t think any of these guys are long term solutions, but for a team who is attempting to rebuild, any of them would be an okay fit for a year. As long as I don’t have to watch Yuniesky Betancourt ever play third base again, I’ll be happy.

Shortstop – Jean Segura. If you could give someone a negative chance of being traded, I would give that to him. Acquired in the Zack Greinke deal last year, Segura has become a hitting machine. He also has incredible range at shortstop and a very strong throwing arm. He’ll be here for awhile, folks.

Second base – I believe that Rickie Weeks will eventually get himself out of his hitting slump and start playing every day for the Brewers. He has started hitting lately, but is still in a platoon with Scooter Gennett. Weeks will be owed $12MM in 2014. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want a player who is earning $12MM (the second highest 2014 salary behind Aramis’ $16MM) to be sitting on the bench half of the time. The Brewers aren’t going anywhere this year, so I’m not sure why they aren’t giving Weeks more opportunities now that he is finally starting to turn it around.

First base – Many people are saying that Hunter Morris will be called up to start at first base in 2014, but I have a feeling that Corey Hart will be back. Since his injury will have kept him out for at least half of the season, teams will probably be hesitant to give him a big deal. The Brewers could bring him back for one year and help him build up some value. If things go well for him and the Brewers aren’t in the race again next year, they could always trade him before the deadline (assuming his stays healthy).

Catcher – Either Jonathan Lucroy or Martin Maldonado will be the Brewers’ primary catcher in 2014. I seriously doubt that Lucroy gets traded, but if he does, we will probably see Maldy pick up most of the catching duties. 

So, as you can see, the Brewers offense will still be in pretty good shape next year. This “rebuild” will probably only take two or three years and the Brewers will be able to start contending for a postseason spot around 2015. And hopefully, by this time, the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates won’t be the three best teams in the National League. But, for now, we’re just going to have to try and survive the rest of the 2013 season by making clever jokes about how bad the team is in order to make ourselves laugh so we don’t cry.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Kristin Zenz (@10iskristin)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @Mik3_Schu, and @10iskristin.

The Brewers Projected Starting Line-up

In the final piece of the puzzle, it is time to take a look at arguably the easiest element to predict out of the three sectors of the team. I have already covered the bullpen, as well as the starting rotation. You can find those blogs here and here. Today, we will be looking at what our "Go-To" line-up will look like as well as our depth on the bench plus I'll be doing some 2013 statistical projections for the Brewers. Let's first take a look at what our line-up will likely look like on opening day.

Andrew's projected 2013 Brewers Opening Day Line-up

1. RF - Norichika Aoki
2. 2B - Rickie Weeks
3. LF - Ryan Braun
4. 3B - Aramis Ramirez
5. C - Jonathan Lucroy
6. 1B - Mat Gamel
7. CF - Carlos Gomez
8. SS - Jean Segura
9. SP - Yovani Gallardo

It's going to be interesting to see what the Brewers do as far as their strategy is concerned for how they set their line-up. From what worked the best last year, Aoki leading off was extremely effective last year. He's got speed. He's a smart base runner. He hits for average to get on base. He's exactly what you want in a lead-off hitter. I can't see Gomez in the spot unless he changes his hitting style. Weeks was given the opportunity last season to lead off and that didn't work out too well as it led Weeks on a downward spiral for the first half of the season. Segura may get a couple looks as the lead-off guy, but not to start the season unless he starts out hot. If Segura can become our lead-off hitter later in the year, our line-up could look something like this...(assuming Corey Hart is back by the time of this potential move)

Andrew's Alternate Starting Line-up

1. SS - Jean Segura
2. RF - Norichika Aoki
3. LF - Ryan Braun
4. 3B - Aramis Ramirez
5. 1B - Corey Hart
6. 2B - Rickie Weeks
7. C - Jonathan Lucroy
8. CF - Carlos Gomez
9. SP - (Starting pitcher)

With Segura and Aoki hitting one and two, it eliminated the worry of getting the lead off man on and having the two hitter grounding into a double play, as we see Weeks do quite often. Yes, Aoki would do it too, but I'm confident that it would happen a lot less.

After Aoki and Weeks in the one and two spots, the core is very easy to place. Braun will continue to bat third and Ramirez will follow as the clean-up hitter, just as we seen last year. After Ramirez, it gets really up in the air as far as who falls where. It's going to depend on who has the hot bat during spring I would assume and how they're hitting the ball. I envision Lucroy gets the five hole for starting the season, but if Gamel can smoke the ball in spring he might get that look as well. However, once Corey Hart returns, the line-up will look totally different. It it might not be long until we see Corey Hart after the season starts as he is reportedly ahead of schedule.

Corey Hart is still on crutches but said he's ahead of schedule in return from knee surgery. His comments coming to the blog soon. #Brewers
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) February 13, 2013

After Lucroy and Gamel/Hart, you have the seven and eight spots which would be filled by Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura. Coin flip? Maybe. Both are very fast base runners who are very nice weapons to have at the bottom of the order, especially if they are leading off an inning. Knowing that Ron Roenicke will continue to bunt in any situation that calls for it, Having either of them on base with a pitcher coming up means their wheels will be spinning. Those two at the bottom of the order could easily combine for seventy stolen bases this season, not to mention Aoki, Weeks, and Braun could combine for another seventy or eighty. No matter how it is mixed up, the Brewers have a very strong line-up heading into this season. And, it doesn't stop there. Our bench will provide great depth for days a regular needs a day off. Our bench will likely look something like this...

Andrew's projected 2013 Brewers Opening Day Bench

1. SS - Alex Gonzalez
2. C - Martin Maldonado
3. OF - Logan Schafer
4. IF/OF - Taylor Green
5. IF - Jeff Bianchi

Post Hart Return Bench

1. SS - Alex Gonzalez
2. C - Martin Maldonado
3. OF - Logan Schafer
4. IF/OF - Taylor Green
5. 1B/OF - Mat Gamel

Much like our starting rotation, setting our bench is going to involve a lot of sacrificing as many players are out of options. Donnie Murphy and Jeff Bianchi will fight it out in spring for a spot of the bench. The other could likely be cut, as neither have any minor league options left. Logan Schafer is a lock in my eyes as our fourth outfielder for the Brewers. Gonzalez and Maldonado are also locked as well. Throw is Taylor Green as a lefty with some pop and there you have our bench. Green can play infield and outfield. Gonzalez, Green and Maldy all might see time at first base while Hart is out. Jeff can play any infield position but first. When Corey Hart comes back, my guess would be that Bianchi would be designated for assignment.

Andrew's projected 2013 Brewers Opening Day 25 Man Roster

C - Jonathon Lucroy, Martin Maldonado
1B - Mat Gamel
2B - Rickie Weeks, Jeff Bianchi
3B - Aramis Ramirez, Taylor Green
SS - Jean Segura, Alex Gonzalez
OF - Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Norichika Aoki, Logan Schafer
SP - Yovani Gallardo, Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Chris Narveson, Mark Rogers
RP - John Axford, Jim Henderson, Michael Gonzalez, Tom Gorzelanny, Burke Badenhop, Brandon Kintzler, Michael Olmsted
15 Day DL - Corey Hart

Andrew's projected 2013 Brewers Individual Player Stats

Jonathan Lucroy - .281, 57 R, 21 HR, 67 RBI, 7 SB

Martin Maldonado - .241, 23 R, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 1 SB

Mat Gamel - .269, 30 R, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 4 SB

Corey Hart - .274, 79 R, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 6 SB

Rickie Weeks - .258, 99 R, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 16 SB

Jeff Bianchi - .223, 10 R, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 4 SB

Jean Segura - .275, 67 R, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 23 SB

Alex Gonzalez - .235, 32 R, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 10 SB

Aramis Ramirez - .294, 91 R, 32 HR, 98 RBI, 5 SB

Taylor Green - .232, 23 R, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 2 SB

Ryan Braun - .319, 107 R, 39 HR, 114 RBI, 31 SB

Carlos Gomez - .265, 82 R, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 37 SB

Norichika Aoki - .291, 74 R, 11 HR, 56 RBI, 22 SB

Logan Schafer - .248, 16 R, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 4 SB

Yovani Gallardo - 14-9, 3.56 ERA, 213 SO

Mike Fiers - 12-10, 3.20 ERA, 160 SO

Marco Estrada - 11-12, 3.41 ERA, 174 SO

Chris Narveson - 7-10, 3.90 ERA, 89 SO

Mark Rogers - 8-7, 4.10 ERA, 106 SO

Wily Peralta - 10-9, 3.84 ERA, 136 SO

John Axford - 3-4, 2.89 ERA, 87 SO, 43 SV

Jim Henderson - 3-2, 3.56 ERA, 49 SO

Brandon Kintzler - 2-3, 3.91 ERA, 33 SO

Michael Gonzalez - 2-2, 3.29 ERA, 47 SO

Tom Gorzelanny - 5-5, 3.76 ERA, 89 SO

Burke Badenhop - 3-3, 3.62 ERA, 46 SO

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @Brandon_BFP, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)