The Brewers Projected Starting Line-up

In the final piece of the puzzle, it is time to take a look at arguably the easiest element to predict out of the three sectors of the team. I have already covered the bullpen, as well as the starting rotation. You can find those blogs here and here. Today, we will be looking at what our "Go-To" line-up will look like as well as our depth on the bench plus I'll be doing some 2013 statistical projections for the Brewers. Let's first take a look at what our line-up will likely look like on opening day.

Andrew's projected 2013 Brewers Opening Day Line-up

1. RF - Norichika Aoki
2. 2B - Rickie Weeks
3. LF - Ryan Braun
4. 3B - Aramis Ramirez
5. C - Jonathan Lucroy
6. 1B - Mat Gamel
7. CF - Carlos Gomez
8. SS - Jean Segura
9. SP - Yovani Gallardo

It's going to be interesting to see what the Brewers do as far as their strategy is concerned for how they set their line-up. From what worked the best last year, Aoki leading off was extremely effective last year. He's got speed. He's a smart base runner. He hits for average to get on base. He's exactly what you want in a lead-off hitter. I can't see Gomez in the spot unless he changes his hitting style. Weeks was given the opportunity last season to lead off and that didn't work out too well as it led Weeks on a downward spiral for the first half of the season. Segura may get a couple looks as the lead-off guy, but not to start the season unless he starts out hot. If Segura can become our lead-off hitter later in the year, our line-up could look something like this...(assuming Corey Hart is back by the time of this potential move)

Andrew's Alternate Starting Line-up

1. SS - Jean Segura
2. RF - Norichika Aoki
3. LF - Ryan Braun
4. 3B - Aramis Ramirez
5. 1B - Corey Hart
6. 2B - Rickie Weeks
7. C - Jonathan Lucroy
8. CF - Carlos Gomez
9. SP - (Starting pitcher)

With Segura and Aoki hitting one and two, it eliminated the worry of getting the lead off man on and having the two hitter grounding into a double play, as we see Weeks do quite often. Yes, Aoki would do it too, but I'm confident that it would happen a lot less.

After Aoki and Weeks in the one and two spots, the core is very easy to place. Braun will continue to bat third and Ramirez will follow as the clean-up hitter, just as we seen last year. After Ramirez, it gets really up in the air as far as who falls where. It's going to depend on who has the hot bat during spring I would assume and how they're hitting the ball. I envision Lucroy gets the five hole for starting the season, but if Gamel can smoke the ball in spring he might get that look as well. However, once Corey Hart returns, the line-up will look totally different. It it might not be long until we see Corey Hart after the season starts as he is reportedly ahead of schedule.

Corey Hart is still on crutches but said he's ahead of schedule in return from knee surgery. His comments coming to the blog soon. #Brewers
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) February 13, 2013

After Lucroy and Gamel/Hart, you have the seven and eight spots which would be filled by Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura. Coin flip? Maybe. Both are very fast base runners who are very nice weapons to have at the bottom of the order, especially if they are leading off an inning. Knowing that Ron Roenicke will continue to bunt in any situation that calls for it, Having either of them on base with a pitcher coming up means their wheels will be spinning. Those two at the bottom of the order could easily combine for seventy stolen bases this season, not to mention Aoki, Weeks, and Braun could combine for another seventy or eighty. No matter how it is mixed up, the Brewers have a very strong line-up heading into this season. And, it doesn't stop there. Our bench will provide great depth for days a regular needs a day off. Our bench will likely look something like this...

Andrew's projected 2013 Brewers Opening Day Bench

1. SS - Alex Gonzalez
2. C - Martin Maldonado
3. OF - Logan Schafer
4. IF/OF - Taylor Green
5. IF - Jeff Bianchi

Post Hart Return Bench

1. SS - Alex Gonzalez
2. C - Martin Maldonado
3. OF - Logan Schafer
4. IF/OF - Taylor Green
5. 1B/OF - Mat Gamel

Much like our starting rotation, setting our bench is going to involve a lot of sacrificing as many players are out of options. Donnie Murphy and Jeff Bianchi will fight it out in spring for a spot of the bench. The other could likely be cut, as neither have any minor league options left. Logan Schafer is a lock in my eyes as our fourth outfielder for the Brewers. Gonzalez and Maldonado are also locked as well. Throw is Taylor Green as a lefty with some pop and there you have our bench. Green can play infield and outfield. Gonzalez, Green and Maldy all might see time at first base while Hart is out. Jeff can play any infield position but first. When Corey Hart comes back, my guess would be that Bianchi would be designated for assignment.

Andrew's projected 2013 Brewers Opening Day 25 Man Roster

C - Jonathon Lucroy, Martin Maldonado
1B - Mat Gamel
2B - Rickie Weeks, Jeff Bianchi
3B - Aramis Ramirez, Taylor Green
SS - Jean Segura, Alex Gonzalez
OF - Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Norichika Aoki, Logan Schafer
SP - Yovani Gallardo, Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Chris Narveson, Mark Rogers
RP - John Axford, Jim Henderson, Michael Gonzalez, Tom Gorzelanny, Burke Badenhop, Brandon Kintzler, Michael Olmsted
15 Day DL - Corey Hart

Andrew's projected 2013 Brewers Individual Player Stats

Jonathan Lucroy - .281, 57 R, 21 HR, 67 RBI, 7 SB

Martin Maldonado - .241, 23 R, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 1 SB

Mat Gamel - .269, 30 R, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 4 SB

Corey Hart - .274, 79 R, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 6 SB

Rickie Weeks - .258, 99 R, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 16 SB

Jeff Bianchi - .223, 10 R, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 4 SB

Jean Segura - .275, 67 R, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 23 SB

Alex Gonzalez - .235, 32 R, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 10 SB

Aramis Ramirez - .294, 91 R, 32 HR, 98 RBI, 5 SB

Taylor Green - .232, 23 R, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 2 SB

Ryan Braun - .319, 107 R, 39 HR, 114 RBI, 31 SB

Carlos Gomez - .265, 82 R, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 37 SB

Norichika Aoki - .291, 74 R, 11 HR, 56 RBI, 22 SB

Logan Schafer - .248, 16 R, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 4 SB

Yovani Gallardo - 14-9, 3.56 ERA, 213 SO

Mike Fiers - 12-10, 3.20 ERA, 160 SO

Marco Estrada - 11-12, 3.41 ERA, 174 SO

Chris Narveson - 7-10, 3.90 ERA, 89 SO

Mark Rogers - 8-7, 4.10 ERA, 106 SO

Wily Peralta - 10-9, 3.84 ERA, 136 SO

John Axford - 3-4, 2.89 ERA, 87 SO, 43 SV

Jim Henderson - 3-2, 3.56 ERA, 49 SO

Brandon Kintzler - 2-3, 3.91 ERA, 33 SO

Michael Gonzalez - 2-2, 3.29 ERA, 47 SO

Tom Gorzelanny - 5-5, 3.76 ERA, 89 SO

Burke Badenhop - 3-3, 3.62 ERA, 46 SO

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @Brandon_BFP, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)

Corey Hart's Injury Isn't As Bad As It Seems

Photo: BleacherReport.com

Today it was announced that outfielder converted first baseman Corey Hart will be undergoing knee surgery on January 22nd and will be out for approximately 3-4 months, or about 6 weeks if you're looking at our schedule. Initially, this news really bugged me out and I was already concerned for our 2013 season. But, after taking a few deep breaths I was actually alright with it. Don't get me wrong, it's unfortunate and potentially could hurt the team depth wise in the beginning, but production wise I don't think there will be a difference that early in the year, too be honest.

As easily as I can, I want to buckle down and hopefully show that having Gamel in the lineup isn't a bad thing and could potentially benefit the Brewers in the long run. I will also take a look at a few other options the Brewers have at first base other than Mat Gamel, which I can tell you right now isn't much. Fear not, Brewer Nation. Everything is going to be already without Hart for a few weeks to start the season. Here's why...

We will first go with some semi-arbitrary statistical projections for each party, starting with Mat Gamel. According to Bill James of FanGraphs Baseball, Mat Gamel is now projected to bat .287/.351/.473/.824 with 65 R/17 HR/72 RBI/42 BB (8.7 BB%)/91 SO (18.8 K%) and a total of 127 hits in 442 at bats in 114 games plays. On the other hand, Corey Hart was originally projected for playing in 150 games. We know that isn't going to happen. So, taking off the 6 weeks he's guaranteed to miss plus other days off he will receive for rest, I'll say he'll play in around 100 games this year (not accounting for pinch hits etc.), or 1/3 of what he was expected to play. After taking Hart's projected stats and taking 1/3 off of each appropriate stat, these numbers may surprise you. Hart would still be rightfully projected as a .270/.330/.490/.820 hitter for sure, but here is where things get interesting. Hart would be projected at 60 R/18 HR/62 RBI/32 BB (8.3 BB%)/96 SO (25.0 K%) and a total of 104 hits in 384 at bats in 100 games. Now, granted the projections for Gamel could be way off with the amount of games he plays, but with his ability to play corner infield and outfield spots, he may see more opportunities in 2013, especially with a scarce lefty line-up the Brewers have.

Photo: Fansedge.com

As far as other options the Brewers have at first base, there really isn't too much to chose from. Taylor Green would serve the same purpose as Gamel, though Gamel would produce more than Green. You don't want to interrupt Hunter Morris' minor league progression path by having him up on the main roster for 6 weeks and then optioning him down to Nashville. Moving Aramis Ramirez over to first base is not an option, however moving back-up catcher Martin Maldonado is. Free agency is absolutely picked to the bone of free agent first basemen, unless anyone wants a 42 year old Jason Giambi or a blast from the past Carlos Lee. Casey Kotchman or Lyle Overbay would be alright with me, but the deals would have to be dirt cheap because the understanding would be "Look guys, you're going to be playing first base for about 6-7 weeks, and then after that we're likely to release you.". And I don't see trading for a first baseman is logical, either. Looking over these options, giving Mat Gamel one last chance to shine is our only sensible option on the table.

Benefits, you ask? In the event Gamel lights up the majors like a Christmas tree and there are no set-backs with Corey Hart come June-July, you have the option of putting Mat Gamel out on a hook to see what kind of fish bite. By fish, I mean a contending team looking for a power hitting left handed utility guy such as Mat Gamel. Granted, the return on Mat wouldn't be much; not even close to Zack Greinke. But, I could see the Brewers swapping Mat Gamel in return for a prospect pitcher or infielder. Or, vise versa, Gamel still lights up the majors, but Corey shows that he's playing well too. Mark Attanasio and Doug Melvin decide they want to save a few dollars, they could end up putting Corey Hart on that fishing hook barring any setbacks with his knee. The return on Corey Hart would be much larger than Gamel, hands down. But, with this second knee surgery in as many years, a red flag will pop up for many teams.

In the ever classic song by Journey "I'll Be Alright Without You", a line from the chorus reads "I'll be alright without you - there'll be someone else, I keep tellin' myself". We will be fine without Corey Hart. Someone will be playing first base for the Brewers on opening day. And, if he has a great spring coming back from his ACL injury in 2012, I can comfortably say it that person will be Mat Gamel.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @Brandon_BFP, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)