Showing posts with label Zack Greinke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zack Greinke. Show all posts

Sunday, March 31, 2013

2013 MLB Season Preview: NL West

San Francisco Giants

Notable additions: Jeremy Affeldt (re-signing), Chad Gaudin (re-signing), Angel Pagan (re-signing), Marco Scutaro(re-signing), Andres Torres (free agent)

Notable losses: Clay Hensley (FA), Guillermo Mota (FA), Melky Cabrera (FA), Ryan Theriot (FA)

The Giants are coming off their second World Series win in three seasons, which seems odd. They never felt like a dominant team either year, but benefited from some fantastic individual performances to assist their already impressive core of talent. The Giants have a very specific way of building their roster, staying in contention with their solid core and then acquiring veterans on the cheap around the trade deadline to supplement their playoff runs. They then sign those veterans to extensions and if those don’t work out, they simply trade for another replacement.

Buster Posey (the 2012 NL MVP), Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Pablo Sandoval are the team’s headliners, and all rank among the best at their respective positions. Cain and Bumgarner head the starting rotation, which also features a solid veteran in Ryan Vogelsong, a mediocre veteran in Barry Zito, and a total wild card in Tim Lincecum, a former Cy Young winner who’s coming off a disaster season. If Lincecum’s velocity and command issues persist, the Giants don’t really have anyone to replace him. The bullpen is fantastic, and manager Bruce Bochy is excellent at using it properly.

For a World Series winner, their offense continues to be underrated. Posey is the best hitting catcher in the majors, Sandoval is terrific when healthy, and among the other starters only slick-fielding shortstop Brandon Crawford is likely to be below average. The defense is also solid, with Hunter Pence the only player with a weak glove.  Prospect Gary Brown is worth keeping an eye on as a mid-season replacement in left field.

Projected Roster

Catcher: Buster Posey, Hector Sanchez, Guillermo Quiroz
First Base: Brandon Belt
Second Base: Marco Scutaro
Shortstop: Brandon Crawford
Third Base: Pablo Sandoval
Outfield: Andres Torres, Angel Pagan, Hunter Pence, Gregor Blanco
Utility: Joaquin Arias, Nick Noonan
Starting Pitchers: Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong, Barry Zito
Relief Pitchers: Chad Gaudin, George Kontos, Javier Lopez, Jose Mijares, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo

Los Angeles Dodgers 

Notable additions: Zack Greinke (FA), JP Howell (FA), Hyun-Jin Ryu (FA), Skip Schumaker(FA), Brandon League (re-signing)

Notable losses: Juan Rivera (FA), Adam Kennedy (FA), Shane Victorino (FA), Tony Gwynn, Jr. (FA), Jamey Wright (FA), Randy Choate (FA)

The Dodgers have a lot of money. Like, a LOT of money. They swung a late season trade with Boston to absorb the massive contracts of Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford, signed former Brewer Zack Greinke to a massive deal in the offseason, and have no problem handing out large sacks of money to Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Brandon League, and just about everyone else on their pitching staff. Despite all of this, it’s hard to consider them a favorite in their own division, much less the NL. They’ve certainly improved on the 86-win team from last year, but injuries and lack of depth on the offense will likely keep them from running away with anything.

Kemp is an unquestioned superstar and heads a talented offense. Gonzalez and Ramirez are big names coming off of bad years. Andre Ethier is a decent player. Everyone else is a big question mark. Luis Cruz and AJ Ellis overachieved last year and aren’t long term options, Mark Ellis is just kind of okay, Carl Crawford hasn’t been healthy in over two seasons, and Dee Gordon sucks so hard. Even the stars have problems, with Ramirez missing the first couple months of the season, Gonzalez losing power, and Kemp having shoulder issues. Kemp and Ramirez are also asked to play positions the can no longer reasonably play defensively, which doesn’t help. Then bench is uninspiring, Jerry Hairston Jr. is a solid utility guy but the idea of Nick Punto and/or Juan Uribe starting in Ramirez’s place is kind of hilarious.

The pitching staff is deep. Clayton Kershaw and Greinke might be the best 1-2 in baseball, and Beckett’s not too shabby as a #3. Korean import Hyun-Jin Ryu is a complete unknown and Chad Billingsley is due to suffer an elbow explosion, but Chris Capuano, Ted Lilly, and Aaron Harang are waiting in the bullpen so it’s all cool. Kenley Jansen and League make up the back end of the bullpen, and both are solid.

Projected Roster

Catcher: AJ Ellis, Tim Federowicz
First Base: Adrian Gonzalez
Second Base: Mark Ellis
Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez (DL)
Third Base: Luis Cruz, Juan Uribe
Outfield: Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier
Utility: Nick Punto, Skip Schumaker, Jerry Hairston, Jr., Alex Castellanos
Starting Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chad Billingsley
Relief Pitchers: Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, Ted Lilly, Matt Guerrier, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Brandon League

Arizona Diamondbacks

Notable additions: Martin Prado (trade), Randall Delgado (trade), Cliff Pennington (trade), Heath Bell (trade), Tony Sipp (trade), Didi Gregorius (trade),Tony Campana (trade),  Brandon McCarthy (FA), Matt Reynolds (FA), Wil Nieves (FA), Eric Chavez (FA), Eric Hinske (FA), Cody Ross (FA)

Notable losses: Justin Upton (trade), Chris Johnson (trade), Trevor Bauer (trade), Chris Young (trade), Brian Shaw (trade), Matt Albers (FA), Matt Lindstrom (FA), Mike Zagurski (FA), Lyle Overbay (FA), Henry Blanco (FA), Takashi Saito (FA)

The D-Backs have been in the headlines constantly this offseason, and it’s not for good reasons. The Upton, Young, and Bauer trades have gotten negative reviews and for good reason. Despite this, they should still be a competitive team in 2013. They have a good offense  and a deep pitching staff, but they are also devoid of stars in an attempt to build the club in manager Kirk Gibson’s image.

Miguel Montero is probably their best player, a well-rounded catcher who hits from the left side. He’s very good. Paul Goldschimdt is coming off s sophomore season where he hit better against right-handed pitching than expected but also showed less power than expected. Second baseman Aaron Hill is coming off something of a second breakout season, hitting for both average and power. Martin Prado is also a very good player and will man third base but can fill in just about everywhere else if injuries occur. Shortstop is a black hole offensively with Pennington and Gregorius being unable to hit a baseball with a baseball bat, but both are good fielders. The outfield has been downgraded with the trades of Young and Upton and the injury to Adam Eaton, but Cody Ross, Gerardo Parra, and Jason Kubel are still solid options. The bench is good despite the presence of Wil Nieves.

The pitching staff is also solid, but devoid of star-level talent. Ian Kennedy’s is the “ace” but his true talent is probably closer to his 2012 production than his 2011 production. Trevor Cahill and Wade Miley have probably already reached their upside. Brandon McCarthy is a cool dude and solid pitcher but the likelihood of him staying healthy all season is pretty close to zero. Randall Delgado has no third pitch and shaky control, so it’s probable that we see Patrick Corbin and/or Tyler Skaggs occupy that spot at some point. Daniel Hudson is coming off of Tommy John surgery but should make an appearance at some point. The bullpen is impressive with David Hernandez and JJ Putz locking down the back end. The traded for Heath Bell for some reason but hopefully they’ll keep him out of many leverage situations.

Projected Roster

Catcher: Miguel Montero, Wil Nieves
First Base: Paul Goldschimdt, Eric Hinske
Second Base: Aaron Hill
Third Base: Martin Prado, Eric Chavez
Shortstop: Cliff Pennington
Outfield: Jason Kubel, Gerardo Parra, Cody Ross, Adam Eaton (DL), AJ Pollock
Utility: Willie Bloomquist
Starting Pitchers: Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Patrick Corbin
Relief Pitchers: Matt Reynolds, Joe Paterson, Brad Zeigler, Tony Sipp, Heath Bell, David Hernandez, JJ Putz

San Diego Padres

Notable additions: Jason Marquis (re-signing)

Notable losses: Jason Bartlett (FA)

Andrew was bold enough to predict the Mariners for second place in the AL West, and I’d love to show similar boldness here. But I can’t do it. I like what the Padres have going for the most part but are already without star third baseman Chase Headley for the first month and even after that thumb injuries are no picnic for hitters. Pitching prospect Casey Kelly is out for the year with Tommy John surgery and stud catcher Yasmani Grandal is suspended for the first 50 games. The farm system is loaded but it’s hard to project what kind of impact it’ll make this season. Maybe next year?

When everyone is healthy/not suspended, this looks like a decent offense despite the enormous park they call home. Headley probably had his career year in 2012, but is a very good player nonetheless. Carlos Quentin and Grandal are the only other well-above-average players, but the rest of the pieces fit together nicely to make a well-rounded lineup. Prospect Jed Gyorko has potential to be a good player, but was being asked to play out of position before the Headley injury and I have my doubts he’ll stick at second base. First baseman Yonder Alonso underachieved in his first year in Petco, but I have hopes he’ll figure it out. If not, power-hitting Kyle Blanks could get a shot. Cameron Maybin is also coming off a down year but is an elite defender and still has some nice skills offensively. Wil Venable and Chris Denorfia aren’t household names but should make a great platoon in right field. Cody Ransom and Mark Kotsay are around, so there’s that.

The pitching is meh, not that it matters a whole lot in that park. Edinson Volquez has good stuff but walks way too many hitters. Jason Marquis pitched well after coming over mid-season, but isn’t a top-of-the-rotation guy. Eric Stults and Clayton Richard are just innings-eaters. Tyson Ross isn’t any good. Cory Luebke has upside but is coming off surgery and probably won’t debut until midseason. Youngsters Anthony Bass and Andrew Cashner will almost certainly factor in at some point. Like most every other team in this division, the bullpen is pretty good. Huston Street will close while he’s healthy, and Luke Gregerson is a great set-up man. I love Brad Boxberger as a future closer type.

Projected Roster

Catcher: Yasmani Grandal (suspended), Nick Hundley, John Baker
First Base: Yonder Alonso, Mark Kotsay
Second Base: Jed Gyorko, Logan Forsythe
Shortsop: Everth Cabrera
Third Base: Chase Headley (DL)
Outfield: Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, Wil Venable, Chris Denorfia, Kyle Blanks,
Utility: Alexi Amarista
Starting Pitchers: Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Eric Stults, Jason Marquis, Tyson Ross
Relief Pitchers: Huston Street, Luke Gregerson, Brad Brach, Andrew Cashner, Joe Thatcher, Dale Thayer, Anthony Bass

Colorado Rockies

Notable additions: Jorge De La Rosa (re-signing), Jeff Francis (re-signing), Jon Garland (FA), Yorvit Torrealba (FA), Chris Volstad (FA), Reid Brignac (trade), Manuel Corpas (FA)

Notable losses: Alex White (trade), Matt Reynolds (FA), Josh Roenicke (FA), Jason Giambi (FA)

"Why did I sign that extension?"
Ugh. UGH. This team is a mess. At least they’ll be a mildly entertaining mess, when they play at home anyway. Just about every division has a team that is all but ensured to finish last, the in the NL West the Rockies are that team. Even if one of the teams above them loses their roster in a plane crash I’m not sure the Rockies could catch them.

The offense will occasionally look better than it really is due to the extreme hitting-friendly environment of Coors Field, but beyond superstar shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and left fielder Carlos Gonzalez, there’s not much to like. Catcher Wilin Rosario has tons of power but not much else and is a defensive disaster. Dexter Fowler and Michael Cuddyer are decent players but probably a little overrated. Second baseman Josh Rutledge is interesting and filled in well for Tulowitzki last season, but probably isn’t a star in the making. Todd Helton is still around but he’s 39 and his hitting skills have faded. Most everyone else is either a glorified platoon player or bad. Prospect Nolan Arenado is the future at third base but makeup issues have hurt his stock.

The pitching is…..um….bad. Francis is kind of their ace, which is kind of embarrassing. De La Rosa is a lottery ticket, and the team is hoping Drew Pomeranz and Jhoulys Chacin can throw strikes and Juan Nicasio won’t get hit by any more line drives. The bullpen has some skilled pitchers with Matt Belisle, Adam Ottavino, and Rex Brothers. Rafael Betancourt closes and is extremely underrated. He’s also never hit a left-handed batter with a pitch, which is amazing.

Projected Roster

Catcher: Wilin Rosario, Yorvit Torrealba
First Base: Todd Helton
Second Base: Josh Rutledge
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki
Third Base: Chris Nelson
Outfield: Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Michael Cuddyer
Utility: Jordan Pacheco, Eric Young, Jr., Jonathan Herrera, Reid Brignac
Starting Pitchers: Jeff Francis, Jorge De La Rosa, Juan Nicasio, Jhoulys Chacin, Jon Garland
Relief Pitchers: Adam Ottavino, Rex Brothers, Matt Belisle, Wilton Lopez, Manuel Corpas, Chris Volstad, Rafael Betancourt

Projected Standings

San Fransisco Giants (90-72, first place, NL West Champions)
Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74, second place)
Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78, third place)
San Diego Padres (82-80, fourth place)
Colorado Rockies (65-97, fifth place)

This is one of the deepest divisions in baseball, which makes for good baseball games but lower win totals at the top. Frankly I could see any of the top three teams winning the West, but as of now I like the Giants the most out of the group. Because the top four teams will beat each other up, I only see one team in the division making the playoffs.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-
Jerry Eldred (@jheldred)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu, @jheldred, @B_Toom_3, and @olewr7. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)

2013 MLB Season Preview: AL West

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Key Additions - Josh Hamilton, OF: 5years/$125MM, Sean Burnett, RP: 2years/$8MM, Joe Blanton, SP: 2years/$15MM, Ryan Madson, RP: 1year/$3.5MM.

Key Losses - Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, Jordan Walden, Kendrys Morales, Torii Hunter, Maicer Izturis, LaTroy Hawkins

Key Trades - Acquired SP Jason Vargas from Mariners for 1B Kendrys Morales. Acquired SP Tommy Hanson from Braves for RP Jordan Walden. Acquired P Brandon Sisk from Royals for SP Ervin Santana. Acquired OF Exicardo Cayones and RP Kramer Sneed from Yankees for OF Vernon Wells.

When it comes to the Angels' offense this season, I don't think they will have any issues scoring runs. They were deadly last year, and now they have Josh Hamilton. If healthy, the Angels potentially have four 30+ homerun hitters in their lineup which is absolutely insane. A guy to watch this year that will more than likely be overshadowed due to the main stars of the team is Peter Bourjos. He's slated to take the helm in centerfield full time with the departure of Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells. Bill James of Fangraphs projects Peter at .262, 13 HR, 88 R, 57 RBI, 24 SB, .315 BABIP, and 69.8 wRC with a WAR floating around 3. He will likely bat in the 9-hole this year for the Angels, which could do wonders for his production. If he gets on base on a regular basis this year, he will have no problems stealing bags and scoring runs with Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton at the top of that order.

With what the Angels got in pitching is what they lost in pitching. Losing Zack Greinke, Ervin Santana, and Dan Haren put a gaping hole in their rotation. They did go out and acquire physical replacements, but they did not acquire offsets for the production lost. Tommy Hanson and Jason Vargas will serve as the number three and for pitchers in the rotation behind Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson. Joe Blanton will top out the back end of the rotation. As for the bullpen, it looks very good. Ryan Madson will be starting the year out on the DL as he is still recovering from Tommy John's surgery. Ernesto Frieri will serve as the closer until Madson is healthy. Sean Burnett and Scott Downs are also really good. Garrett Richards could fill in as a starter in the rotation if anyone gets injured.

The spotlight will be all over Mike Trout as he enters his sophomore year in the Bigs. Their rotation is really good all things considered, but the offense will clean up any spills the pitching staff creates.

Projected Roster

Catcher: Chris Iannetta, Chris Snyder
First Base: Albert Pujols
Second Base: Howard Kendrick
Third Base: Alberto Callaspo
Shortstop: Erick Aybar
Outfield: Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton, Peter Bourjos, Kole Calhoun
Utility: Mark Trumbo, Luis Rodriguez, Andrew Romine
Starting Pitchers: Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Jason Vargas, Tommy Hanson, Joe Blanton
Relief Pitchers: Ryan Madson (DL), Ernesto Frieri, Sean Burnett, Kevin Jepsen, Scott Downs, Garrett Richards, Jerome Williams.

Texas Rangers

Key Additions - Lance Berkman, 1B: 1year/$10MM, Jason Frasor, RP: 1year/$1.5MM, A.J. Pierzynski, C: 1year/$7.5MM, Joakim Soria, RP: 2years/$8MM, Geovany Soto, C: 1year/$2.75MM.

Key Losses - Mike Napoli, Michael Young, Josh Hamilton, Mike Adams, Ryan Dempster, Scott Feldman, Koji Uehara.

Key Trades - Acquired P Josh Lindblom and P Lisalverto Bonilla from Phillies for IF Michael Young.

The Rangers had arguably one of the worst off-seasons of any team in Major League Baseball. They lost a lot of nucleus players that made that team successful. I'm not excited about this team at all this year. It seems like it's just one of those homework assignments from high school that you threw together in study hall before you had to turn it in next hour. Their front office failed to pull the trigger on replacing anyone they lost to free agency.

That being said, they still have a competitive team because of a strong minor league system. Their core of Kinsler, Andrus, Beltre and Cruz is very good. The addition of A.J. Pierzynski at catcher gives them pretty much the same player they lost in Mike Napoli. If Lance Berkman doesn't fall apart, he will give them a nice bat in the middle of the order. The Rangers will give a few prospect outfielders a look to start out the year with Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry in a platoon for center field. Speaking of prospects, Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt are starting out in Triple-A but are major league ready at a moment's notice with any injury to the infield. As noted before, the health of Lance Berkman will determine when those two are called up.

Starting pitching is going to be in the spotlight when the season starts. They have a solid four-man rotation in Harrison, Darvish, Holland, and Ogando. The problem for the Rangers is that all of their options for the fifth man in the rotation are going to start the year of the DL. Martin Perez is out until May, Colby Lewis in out until June, and Neftali Feliz will likely be out way past the All-Star break. The Rangers are likely to go with Nick Tepesch as their 5th starter until Perez is back in May. Aside of Joe Nathan, Jason Frasor, and Robbie Ross, the Rangers bullpen looks very weak. Joakim Soria will be a nice addition when he comes off the DL in May. Lots of questions for the Rangers heading into the season.

Projected Roster

Catcher: A.J. Pierzynski, Geovany Soto
First Base: Mitch Moreland
Second Base: Ian Kinsler
Third Base: Adrian Beltre
Shortstop: Elvis Andrus
Outfield: Nelson Cruz, Leonys Martin, David Murphy, Chris Gentry, Julio Borbon
Utility: Jeff Baker, Leury Garcia
Starting Pitchers: Matt Harrison, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Martin Perez (DL)
Relief Pitchers: Joe Nathan, Jason Frasor, Robbie Ross, Joakim Soria (DL), Joseph Ortiz, Michael Kirkman, Derek Lowe

Oakland Athletics

Key Additions - Bartolo Colon, SP: 1year/$3MM, Grant Balfour, RP: 1year/$4.5MM.

Key Losses - Jonny Gomes, Cliff Pennington, Stephen Drew, Brandon Inge, George Kottaras, Chris Carter, Yordy Cabrera, Brandon Hicks, A.J. Cole, Graham Godfrey, Brandon McCarthy, Brad Peacock, Sandy Rosario.

Key Trades - Acquired SS Jed Lowrie and RP Fernando Rodriguez for 1B Chris Carter, SP Brad Peacock and C Max Stassi. Acquired C John Jaso in a three-way deal for P A.J. Cole, P Blake Treinen and P Ian Krol. Acquired OF Jefry Marte from Mets for OF Collin Cowgill. Acquired IF Andy Parrino and P Andrew Werner from Padres for P Tyson Ross and IF A.J. Kirby-Jones. Acquired OF Chris Young in a three-way deal for IF Cliff Pennington and IF Yordy Cabrera.

You think the A's were exciting last year? Just wait for what they do this year. Lew Wolff and Billy Beane do an outstanding job out there in Oakland and have done well again this offseason. They lost a lot, but replenished. The Athletics needed to add a middle infielder this offseason after a combination of losing Stephen Drew and having Jemile Weeks having a miserable rookie season. The free agent market for middle infield was very shallow this year, so hey made a trade with the Houston Astros by acquiring Jed Lowrie, whom they wanted badly on previous occasions.

The A's outfield looks really fun. They'll have Josh Reddick, Coco Crisp, Yoenis Cespedes, and Chris Young out there, which is really one of the more underrated outfield groups in all of baseball. They have a very clean and crisp lineup from top to bottom. Scott Sizemore should be back at second base after getting injured early last year. The A's are one of the deepest teams in all of baseball when it comes to infielders. I would actually say only the Rays have more depth. Lowrie can play all four positions, Hiroyuki Nakajima was added this offseason as a short stop option. Sizemore can play second or third. I can't stress enough their amazing depth.

As far as pitching, they always have great young arms who wind up on other teams years after they debut. This group is no different. Brett Anderson, Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, and A.J. Griffin are some of the best young arms in the game and will make or break the A's successes in 2013. Their bullpen is decent, but has holes. They shocked the baseball world last season by winning the AL West. Who knows what they'll do this year.

Projected Roster

Catcher: John Jaso, Derek Norris
First Base: Brandon Moss
Second Base: Eric Sogard
Third Base: Josh Donaldson
Shortstop: Jed Lowrie, Hiroyuki Nakajima (DL)
Outfield: Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Young
Utility: Scott Sizmore, Seth Smith
Starting Pitchers: Brett Anderson, Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, Dan Straily
Relief Pitchers: Grant Balfour, Ryan Cook, Sean Doolittle, Pat Neshek, Jerry Blevins, Evan Scribner, Chris Resop

Seattle Mariners

Key Additions - Joe Saunders, SP: 1year/$7MM, Kelly Shoppach, C: 1year/$1.5MM, Raul Ibanez, OF: 1/year/$2.75MM, Oliver Perez, SP: 1year/$1.5MM, Jason Bay, OF: 1year/$1MM.

Key Losses - John Jaso, Miguel Olivo, Mike Carp, Scott Cousins, Shawn Kelley, George Sherrill, Jason Vargas.

Key Trades - Acquired OF Abraham Almonte from Yankees for P Shawn Kelley. Acquired OF Mike Morse in a three-way deal for C John Jaso. Acquired IF Kendrys Morales from Angels for SP Jason Vargas. Acquired UT Robert Andino from Orioles for OF Trayvon Robinson.

I'm going to start out by saying this: Don't sleep on the Mariners this year. If you are a Mariners fan, you have a lot to be excited about this year. I really like the moves they made this offseason minus the Jason Bay signing, but I understand the low risk high reward aspect of it.

The Mariners have lacked consistent power in their lineup for a long time now, and now they have it. Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales are going to provide a combined 60 homeruns this year, maybe even more. In addition to them, the Mariners also bring the developing power strokes of Jesus Montero, Kyle Seager, Justin Smoak, and Michael Saunders into play to form a pretty good lineup. Scoring runs shouldn't be a problem for them. Also to note, I really like Dustin Ackley.

Pitching is another story. Lots of red flags. Lots of questions. Will Felix live up to the contract and stay healthy? I really like Felix. I also like Iwakuma as their number two. Saunders couldn't pitch himself out of a paper bag. Blake Beaven will come along this year. And look out for rookie Brandon Maurer. He will be someone to keep an eye on this year. He could end up being one of the best starters in the AL this year. Their bullpen is a sinking ship. Kameron Loe is part of it. Oliver Perez and Tom Wilhelmsen will shine.

Projected Roster

Catcher: Jesus Montero, Kelly Shoppach
First Base: Justin Smoak
Second Base: Dustin Ackley
Third Base: Kyle Seager
Shortstop: Brendan Ryan
Outfield: Michael Saunders, Michael Morse, Franklin Gutierrez, Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez
Utility: Robert Andino, Kendrys Morales
Starting Pitchers: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Joe Saunders, Brandon Maurer, Blake Beavan
Relief Pitchers: Tom Wilhelmsen, Carter Capps, Charlie Furbush, Stephen Pryor, Oliver Perez, Lucas Luetge, Kameron Loe

Houston Astros


Projected Roster


Catcher: Jason Castro, Carlos Corporan
First Base: Brett Wallace, Carlos Pena
Second Base: Jose Altuve
Third Base: Matt Dominguez
Shortstop: Ronny Cedeno
Outfield: Chris Carter, Justin Maxwell, Brandon Barnes, Rick Ankiel, J.D. Martinez
Utility: Marwin Gonzalez
Starting Pitchers: Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell, Philip Humber, Brad Peacock, Erik Bedard
Relief Pitchers: Jose Veras, Wesley Wright, Hector Ambriz, Xavier Cedeno, Josh Fields, Rhiner Cruz, Edgar Gonzalez

Projected Standings

Los Angeles Angels (94-68, first place, AL West Champions)
Seattle Mariners (87-75, second place)
Oakland Athletics (86-76, third place)
Texas Rangers (83-79, fourth place)
Houston Astros (55-107, fifth place)

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-
Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu, @jheldred, @B_Toom_3, @olewr7, and @Stevie2Westside. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)

Friday, January 18, 2013

Corey Hart's Injury Isn't As Bad As It Seems

Photo: BleacherReport.com
Today it was announced that outfielder converted first baseman Corey Hart will be undergoing knee surgery on January 22nd and will be out for approximately 3-4 months, or about 6 weeks if you're looking at our schedule. Initially, this news really bugged me out and I was already concerned for our 2013 season. But, after taking a few deep breaths I was actually alright with it. Don't get me wrong, it's unfortunate and potentially could hurt the team depth wise in the beginning, but production wise I don't think there will be a difference that early in the year, too be honest.

As easily as I can, I want to buckle down and hopefully show that having Gamel in the lineup isn't a bad thing and could potentially benefit the Brewers in the long run. I will also take a look at a few other options the Brewers have at first base other than Mat Gamel, which I can tell you right now isn't much. Fear not, Brewer Nation. Everything is going to be already without Hart for a few weeks to start the season. Here's why...

We will first go with some semi-arbitrary statistical projections for each party, starting with Mat Gamel. According to Bill James of FanGraphs Baseball, Mat Gamel is now projected to bat .287/.351/.473/.824 with 65 R/17 HR/72 RBI/42 BB (8.7 BB%)/91 SO (18.8 K%) and a total of 127 hits in 442 at bats in 114 games plays. On the other hand, Corey Hart was originally projected for playing in 150 games. We know that isn't going to happen. So, taking off the 6 weeks he's guaranteed to miss plus other days off he will receive for rest, I'll say he'll play in around 100 games this year (not accounting for pinch hits etc.), or 1/3 of what he was expected to play. After taking Hart's projected stats and taking 1/3 off of each appropriate stat, these numbers may surprise you. Hart would still be rightfully projected as a .270/.330/.490/.820 hitter for sure, but here is where things get interesting. Hart would be projected at 60 R/18 HR/62 RBI/32 BB (8.3 BB%)/96 SO (25.0 K%) and a total of 104 hits in 384 at bats in 100 games. Now, granted the projections for Gamel could be way off with the amount of games he plays, but with his ability to play corner infield and outfield spots, he may see more opportunities in 2013, especially with a scarce lefty line-up the Brewers have.

Photo: Fansedge.com
As far as other options the Brewers have at first base, there really isn't too much to chose from. Taylor Green would serve the same purpose as Gamel, though Gamel would produce more than Green. You don't want to interrupt Hunter Morris' minor league progression path by having him up on the main roster for 6 weeks and then optioning him down to Nashville. Moving Aramis Ramirez over to first base is not an option, however moving back-up catcher Martin Maldonado is. Free agency is absolutely picked to the bone of free agent first basemen, unless anyone wants a 42 year old Jason Giambi or a blast from the past Carlos Lee. Casey Kotchman or Lyle Overbay would be alright with me, but the deals would have to be dirt cheap because the understanding would be "Look guys, you're going to be playing first base for about 6-7 weeks, and then after that we're likely to release you.". And I don't see trading for a first baseman is logical, either. Looking over these options, giving Mat Gamel one last chance to shine is our only sensible option on the table.

Benefits, you ask? In the event Gamel lights up the majors like a Christmas tree and there are no set-backs with Corey Hart come June-July, you have the option of putting Mat Gamel out on a hook to see what kind of fish bite. By fish, I mean a contending team looking for a power hitting left handed utility guy such as Mat Gamel. Granted, the return on Mat wouldn't be much; not even close to Zack Greinke. But, I could see the Brewers swapping Mat Gamel in return for a prospect pitcher or infielder. Or, vise versa, Gamel still lights up the majors, but Corey shows that he's playing well too. Mark Attanasio and Doug Melvin decide they want to save a few dollars, they could end up putting Corey Hart on that fishing hook barring any setbacks with his knee. The return on Corey Hart would be much larger than Gamel, hands down. But, with this second knee surgery in as many years, a red flag will pop up for many teams.

In the ever classic song by Journey "I'll Be Alright Without You", a line from the chorus reads "I'll be alright without you - there'll be someone else, I keep tellin' myself". We will be fine without Corey Hart. Someone will be playing first base for the Brewers on opening day. And, if he has a great spring coming back from his ACL injury in 2012, I can comfortably say it that person will be Mat Gamel.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)


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