Brewers Sign Kyle Lohse

I woke up this morning (or afternoon, depending on if you view noon as “morning”) to the news that the Brewers signed starting pitcher and former Cardinal Kyle Lohse. I hoped I was dreaming, but I knew I really wasn’t. What I had feared for months had come true - with all the decent starting pitchers on the market, the Brewers would settle on the wrong one. Not even 24 hours ago, it seemed set that the Brewers would go into the 2013 season with a youth movement of sorts in the pitching staff, viewing 2013 as a minor rebuilding year. Yovani Gallardo, Marco Estrada, Mike Fiers, Chris Narveson, and prospect Wily Peralta were set to be the rotation, at least while Mark Rogers built up his arm strength on the DL. Now.....Peralta is likely heading back to the minors for a 34-year old pitcher who’s not good.

This guy.

To the casual fan, this seems like a reasonable deal. Lohse is coming off a career year in St. Louis where he put up a 16-3 record in an impressive 211 innings with a shiny 2.86 ERA. He rarely walked hitters or gave up home runs. On the surface, a 3-year, $33 million-dollar deal for such a pitcher seems like a steal. But there’s so much more than what meets the eye. Let me explain.

As I mentioned earlier, Lohse pitched for the Cardinals not only last year, but for the last five seasons. Three of those years were solid or good, two of those seasons were awful. Prior to his Cardinals career, he was pretty much just awful. The Cardinals have a history of finding value in scrap-heap pitchers (Chris Carpenter, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Piniero, Braden Looper, etc.) and Lohse was no different. But I’m not willing to say he’s just a new pitcher and will continue his success in Milwaukee.

First, he’s 34. Signing old pitchers is not good business, as Brewers fans surely should be aware of. Second, he’s pitched the last few seasons in a pitcher-friendly ballpark that suppresses home runs. That last part is important because he’s a flyball pitcher that doesn’t strike many hitters out. Miller Park is very homer-friendly and as a result more of those fly balls that Lohse induces are likely heading over the fence. Third, advanced stats suggest that Lohse got a little lucky the last two years, with batted balls turning into outs at a higher-than-normal rate as well as a high number of baserunners stranded. While it’s possible he has some kind of skill in those areas that we don’t know about, if those numbers regress to the mean, you’re looking at a very ordinary pitcher at best. Even if he outperforms his peripherals, he’s stuck in a park that doesn’t match his skills.

The likelihood of Lohse outperforming Peralta (who’s waaaaay cheaper) this season seems low, and the gained service time from Peralta starting in the minors pales to the ultimate price the Brewers are paying. Not only is it a high monetary price tag, but the Brewers have to give up their first round pick to sign Lohse (meaning the rival Cardinals get an extra pick), since he’s a type-A free agent. That is a heavy cost for a team with a weak farm system, especially one that’s only on the periphery of a playoff race, not entrenched in it. The knee-jerk reaction may be to blame General Manager Doug Melvin, but it’s entirely likely he had no part in this. Owner Mark Attanasio had been in contact with Lohse’s agent, Scott Boras, and the possibility loomed that Attanasio would bypass Melvin (who didn’t want to give up the draft pick) to sign Lohse. This especially seems odd considering Attanasio just signed Melvin to an extension last year, and now Mark is basically undermining his General Manager to sign a player who’s not worth the price they’re paying. But Attanasio values winning at all costs, even though I doubt Lohse will contribute the wins the Brewers require of him.

All in all, Lohse will probably be okay, an average starter that eats innings but can’t put them over the top. Which is fine for most teams, but not for a team like the Brewers that’s trying to limit payroll and develop young pitchers. It’s another frustrating move from an increasingly frustrating organization. At least Melvin can’t be fired if this move goes badly....I hope.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Jerry Eldred (@jheldred)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu, @jheldred, @B_Toom_3, and @olewr7. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)

LiveBlog: Mailbag Questions From My Followers

This is the first installment of something new I'm going to try in 2013 for the blog. I feel like the main area I need to improve in is more reader/fan interaction. So, once a month I will open up my mentions on Twitter for you all to ask me whatever questions you have for me. I would prefer them to be sports related, but I won't turn down questions regarding world affairs etc. This first installment actually had a great turnout, which makes me feel like this will be a huge hit for my followers. Without any further ado, let's jump into these questions.

Photo: Alabama.com

Q1: How do you think the Brewers will handle Hunter Morris, assuming Mat Gamel wins first base job? MLB bench, or every day at bats in Minors? - @saw111671

I am confident the Brewers will be smart with Morris. They know the potential they have and see in him. Morris was the Southern League Most Valuable Player after hitting .303/.357/.563 with 28 home runs and 113 runs batted in in 2012. He also won the Robin Yount Performance Award as the Brewers Minor League Player of the Year that same year. Morris is still a year away from even being considered as a call up as he needs more at bats. However, if he excels in Triple-A this year, I could see him being a September call up for sure. But as of right now he should be one hundred percent in the minor leagues getting a rapid amount of at bats and experience.

Q2: What are your postseason hopes for the Brewers this year? - @AGruett32

It's not that I don't have any hopes, it's just that I know there are better teams than Milwaukee in the National League. The Brewers might be the fourth best team in the NL Central, and I don't think we have a terrible team at all. The Reds are clearly the best team, the Cardinals will be the Cardinals, and the Pirates have improved by leaps and bounds. Hell, even the Cubs have a better pitching rotation than Milwaukee. Offensively, the Brewers are one of the top tier line-ups in the entire National League. But, competitively put up against teams like the Cardinals, Reds, Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Nationals, and Diamondbacks, we don't really hold a candle to them. Even with the second Wild Card, the playoff chances are looking awfully slim right now.

Q3: Do you really think Gamel can hold down 1st base? - @IKnowSportsBall

He's the best option we have. Remembering his start to 2012 before he got injured, I remember his bat was working just fine. One thing he needs to work on this offseason is his defensive movements when converting 3U, 1-3, and 3-1 plays. He was very sloppy last year and it's something he will need to address in Spring Training. If Gamel doesn't cut it this year, I'm afraid he will be out of second chances with the Brewers and could turn into trade bait.

Q4: What are the chances of the Packers getting Darrelle Revis? - @brunybrewer

I wish they were a lot greater than what they really are. The Jets are said to be looking for a first or second round pick for him in a trade, and I don't see Ted Thompson giving either of those picks up to be honest. I would say the Seahawks, Broncos, Falcons, Bills or 49ers would be the most ideal places to see Revis land if he ends up being traded.

Q5: What do you see in the Brewers' pitching staff this year? - @jfassy20

High risk. High potential. High reward. In a comparison you will see a lot this year, the Brewers' rotation this year reminds a lot of analysts and executives of last year's Athletics pitching staff. It's going to start with how well they can stay healthy. In the past two seasons, the Brewers have lined up some fantastic looking rotations, but both years injury lingered throughout the year. I know right off the bat that if Narveson and Rogers start the year off in the rotation, I believe both will have some sort of innings limit on them. How many? No clue at this point. It all falls on how their spring goes.

Q6: Will the Brewers make a move for another starting pitcher before Spring Training or after or are they confident with who they've got? If so, who is the x-factor? - @SaintsDSP

Well, I'm not sure if confident is the correct word. I mean, Melvin believes in his guys. More recently on radio interviews it sounds more like Melvin is accepting the fact that the Brewers don't have the most ideal rotation in the works and Doug expects there to be struggles in the season. However, there will be about four or five guys competing for three spots in the rotation. I don't think there will be anyone signed in addition to what we have unless there is some sort of injury sustained to Gallardo, Fiers, or Estrada. As far as who the x-factor is, I would say it's the leadership of Gallardo. He's got four young guys under his wing that will need guidance this season. If he can keep their confidence up, we could see some magical things from this staff.

Q7: What's your favorite website for Brewers prospect scouting reports? - @AlecDopp

Bleacher Report...........just kidding. I would have to say brewersrumors.com is pretty good. Otherwise, Baseball America and Fangraphs provide great information on prospects as well as any good fantasy baseball magazine.

Photo: Sports Illustrated

Q8: Any sleeper football signings by Gary Anderson and the Badgers? - @rovolution99

I've been reading for the past few days that there is some potential that Anderson might be swaying Chuckie Keeton (right), the current quarterback at Utah State, to Madison. Keeton is a sophomore and would have a few years of eligibility left to get some serious play in with the Badgers. The rest will just have to play out I suppose. We might look to transfer in a wide receiver. But other then that, I think we have a very solid team to look forward to in 2013.

Q9: Who do the Bucks need to strengthen their team and become a tougher competitor? - @jfassy20

I don't think it has anything to do with needing to add someone. It has to do with cutting the extra baggage. We need to cut ties with Drew Gooden, Marquis Daniels, and Samuel Dalembert and keep guys like Doron Lamb, Tobias Harris, and John Henson in the regular rotation so they can play more consistent basketball. Boylan has done an outstanding job as our new coach since Skiles was fired a few weeks back. If we aren't going to do anything with this season as far as the playoffs are concerned, then we need to evaluate our trade potential candidates as well as who we want to keep for next year.

Q10: Who do you think the Packers will draft? - @purplebadger_12

This all depends on who they cut this offseason as well as who they lose in free agency. Here's a couple scenarios: If the Packers lose Finley, we would have our eye on Zach Ertz, the tight end from Stanford. If we lose Greg Jennings and Donald Driver retires, the Packers may look for a wide receiver like Robert Woods from Southern Cal. Barrett Jones or D.J Fluker out of Alabama could be on the radar since Jeff Saturday is retiring and our offensive line needs a lot of work. The running game has been in question for years now. Does Thompson address it and draft a running back? Monte Ball from Wisconsin and Eddie Lacy from Alabama would address that concern. Finally, AJ Hawk has been rumored to be on the chopping block. Alec Ogletree from Georgia or Kevin Minter from LSU could replace Hawk at inside linebacker. Many options available for sure.

Q11: Where do you think Montee Ball will go? - @purplebadger_12

Unforunately for Montee, the draft class for running back this year is slim pickings. Ball might fall to a late second round pick unless a team like the Rams fear they won't be able to bring back Steven Jackson, they might look at drafting an option at running back. The top three teams he's be the best fit for would be St. Louis, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh. Maybe Arizona? Every team in the NFL seems to be set on running backs right now.

Q12 - Anyone have a pulse on Mark Attanasio buying the Bucks? - @BrwCrw1307

I hate to give you the shortest answer of the night, but as of right now it's all speculation that Mark Attanasio (left) wants to buy the Bucks. He's been asked a few times in interviews and press conferences about it. He doesn't say he would do it, but he doesn't rule it out either. From what I know is that Kohl hasn't gone to Mark about a sale, and Mark hasn't gone to Kohl about a sale, yet.

Q13: Will Peralta's offseason effort get him a crack at the rotation? - @wisco_guy

I think it gives him a great chance, to be honest. It shows he's one-hundred percent dedicated to himself and his pitching career with the Brewers. For those who missed it earlier in an interview with Doug Melvin, during the offseason Peralta paid out of his own pocket to work with a trainer from the Nashville Sounds. That earned oodles of approval rating points with me. If Peralta can ease the wildness in some of his pitches, and make it to his expected innings number, I think Peralta could be a nice sleeper hidden amongst the Brewers rotation.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @Brandon_BFP, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)

Corey Hart's Injury Isn't As Bad As It Seems

Photo: BleacherReport.com

Today it was announced that outfielder converted first baseman Corey Hart will be undergoing knee surgery on January 22nd and will be out for approximately 3-4 months, or about 6 weeks if you're looking at our schedule. Initially, this news really bugged me out and I was already concerned for our 2013 season. But, after taking a few deep breaths I was actually alright with it. Don't get me wrong, it's unfortunate and potentially could hurt the team depth wise in the beginning, but production wise I don't think there will be a difference that early in the year, too be honest.

As easily as I can, I want to buckle down and hopefully show that having Gamel in the lineup isn't a bad thing and could potentially benefit the Brewers in the long run. I will also take a look at a few other options the Brewers have at first base other than Mat Gamel, which I can tell you right now isn't much. Fear not, Brewer Nation. Everything is going to be already without Hart for a few weeks to start the season. Here's why...

We will first go with some semi-arbitrary statistical projections for each party, starting with Mat Gamel. According to Bill James of FanGraphs Baseball, Mat Gamel is now projected to bat .287/.351/.473/.824 with 65 R/17 HR/72 RBI/42 BB (8.7 BB%)/91 SO (18.8 K%) and a total of 127 hits in 442 at bats in 114 games plays. On the other hand, Corey Hart was originally projected for playing in 150 games. We know that isn't going to happen. So, taking off the 6 weeks he's guaranteed to miss plus other days off he will receive for rest, I'll say he'll play in around 100 games this year (not accounting for pinch hits etc.), or 1/3 of what he was expected to play. After taking Hart's projected stats and taking 1/3 off of each appropriate stat, these numbers may surprise you. Hart would still be rightfully projected as a .270/.330/.490/.820 hitter for sure, but here is where things get interesting. Hart would be projected at 60 R/18 HR/62 RBI/32 BB (8.3 BB%)/96 SO (25.0 K%) and a total of 104 hits in 384 at bats in 100 games. Now, granted the projections for Gamel could be way off with the amount of games he plays, but with his ability to play corner infield and outfield spots, he may see more opportunities in 2013, especially with a scarce lefty line-up the Brewers have.

Photo: Fansedge.com

As far as other options the Brewers have at first base, there really isn't too much to chose from. Taylor Green would serve the same purpose as Gamel, though Gamel would produce more than Green. You don't want to interrupt Hunter Morris' minor league progression path by having him up on the main roster for 6 weeks and then optioning him down to Nashville. Moving Aramis Ramirez over to first base is not an option, however moving back-up catcher Martin Maldonado is. Free agency is absolutely picked to the bone of free agent first basemen, unless anyone wants a 42 year old Jason Giambi or a blast from the past Carlos Lee. Casey Kotchman or Lyle Overbay would be alright with me, but the deals would have to be dirt cheap because the understanding would be "Look guys, you're going to be playing first base for about 6-7 weeks, and then after that we're likely to release you.". And I don't see trading for a first baseman is logical, either. Looking over these options, giving Mat Gamel one last chance to shine is our only sensible option on the table.

Benefits, you ask? In the event Gamel lights up the majors like a Christmas tree and there are no set-backs with Corey Hart come June-July, you have the option of putting Mat Gamel out on a hook to see what kind of fish bite. By fish, I mean a contending team looking for a power hitting left handed utility guy such as Mat Gamel. Granted, the return on Mat wouldn't be much; not even close to Zack Greinke. But, I could see the Brewers swapping Mat Gamel in return for a prospect pitcher or infielder. Or, vise versa, Gamel still lights up the majors, but Corey shows that he's playing well too. Mark Attanasio and Doug Melvin decide they want to save a few dollars, they could end up putting Corey Hart on that fishing hook barring any setbacks with his knee. The return on Corey Hart would be much larger than Gamel, hands down. But, with this second knee surgery in as many years, a red flag will pop up for many teams.

In the ever classic song by Journey "I'll Be Alright Without You", a line from the chorus reads "I'll be alright without you - there'll be someone else, I keep tellin' myself". We will be fine without Corey Hart. Someone will be playing first base for the Brewers on opening day. And, if he has a great spring coming back from his ACL injury in 2012, I can comfortably say it that person will be Mat Gamel.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

-Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @Brandon_BFP, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)