Who SHOULD the Brewers Move, and Who WILL They Move at the Deadline?

This season has indeed been disappointing to us all as Brewers fans, with a horrible win-loss record and the news of our beloved Ryan Braun out for the remainder of the season due to a PED suspension. But let’s not hang our hats on the season and call it a complete disappointment just yet. Remember last year when many Brewers fan didn’t want to part with Zack Greinke, holding on to a glimmer of hope that the team would be able to retain him in the offseason? Well, had they not traded Greinke, they still would not have signed him (the Dodgers were determined to win that battle) and we would not have the impressive Jean Segura leading our team, and the entire national league, in hits this season.

I think that this season can still yield some success for the Brewers, if Doug Melvin can make the right moves and acquire some promising pieces for the future. I like the move that sent Francisco Rodriguez to Baltimore for Nicky Delmonico last week. Giving up K-Rod, a guy that wasn’t even on our roster until mid May, for a top 5 prospect on any other team is a good deal in my eyes. But I think that there are still a few more potential moves that could be made to bring the Brewers some more talent that could benefit the team down the road. Below I take a look at the players that could be on the trading block and whether I think they SHOULD be traded, along with whether I believe they WILL be dealt. 

Michael Gonzalez – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes. WILL HE BE DEALT? YES

Gonzalez was a sought after piece in the offseason after posting an impressive 3.03 ERA in 2012 while allowing just 2 home runs. The Braves were a possible trade partner for Gonzalez but that changed when they acquired left hander Scott Downs from the Angles on Monday. Possible suitors remain however, as plenty of playoff contending teams could benefit from the services of a capable lefty like Gonzalez. The return might not be great, however, given Gonzalez has struggled at times this year and he is only signed through the end of the season.

John Axford – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? No. WILL HE BE DEALT? No

Axford has certainly had his ups and downs the past two seasons, but no one can forget his lights out season in 2011, and he is still a fairly young, capable late inning reliever. After struggling early on in the season, Axford ripped of a streak of 23 consecutive appearances without allowing a run, trying a Brewers franchise record. In addition to the impressive streak, the Ax-Man had his ERA was all the way down to 3.50 before allowing 2 earned runs against the Rockies on Sunday afternoon. I think it would be best for the Brewers to retain Axford to pair with Jim Henderson as the focal point of the bullpen moving forward.

Jim Henderson – SHOULD HE BE DEALTH? No. WILL HE BE DEALT? No

I feel that the Brewers should retain Henderson for the same reasons I think Axford needs to stay. He is a capable, fairly young late inning reliever who is signed to an affordable contract and has impressed in the opportunities he’s been given in a Brewers uniform. His ERA currently sits at an impressive 2.09 on the year and he has 12 saves in 15 chances. He is a bit of a feel good story as well, after enduring nearly 10 years in the minor leagues before earning a chance with the crew last season. Unless someone offers something Melvin can’t turn down, I do not think the Brewers will or should explore trade possibilities for Henderson.

Aramis Ramirez – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes. WILL HE BE DEALT? No.
 
This one is tough. A healthy Ramirez could be a very attractive trade chip for teams looking for a bat capable of driving in runs and a solid glove at third base. The holdup here is that Rammy has only played in a handful of games this season, it seems, and is progressing slowly in his recovery from a banged up left knee. Reports Tuesday morning said he tested the knee during batting practice on Monday, but has no idea when he will be ready to return to the lineup. I am still on the side of the fence saying to trade Ramirez for any valuable piece you can get, because I just don’t see him doing much for the club in the remainder of this season or next year. He will be 36 and in the final year of his contract in 2014, a season in which I don’t much expect the Brewers to be contenders. I think it would be wise of Melvin to try and move him, however I just don’t see it happening at this point.

Kyle Lohse – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes.  WILL HE BE DEALT? No.

I was not a happy camper when I heard that the Brewers signed Lohse to a three year, $33 Million contract on March 25th. I personally didn’t expect the team to contend this season and would have preferred to save the money and retain the first round pick we were forced to give up for signing him. That being said, I think that mistake can be rectified if Melvin can swing him for a prospect or two at the deadline. Lohse will turn 35 before next season but still provides value as a number two or three starter. He is off to a very good start this year, his ERA sitting at 3.22, and has shown no signs of slowing down. Again, I don’t expect the team to contend in 2014, so getting someone of value for Lohse seems like the best option here. However, I don’t see Melvin throwing in the towel just yet on 2014 and I feel that he considers Lohse a valuable piece to the team’s possible success moving forward. I don’t see him moving, unless someone offers a deal Doug can’t turn down.  

Yovani Gallardo – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? No. WILL HE BE DEALT? No.

Gallardo is signed through 2014, on a very team friendly deal considering he is the team’s number one starter. It has been rumored that several teams have been interested in the 27 year old, the Diamondbacks among them. I believe the major holdup here is that Gallardo isn’t pitching to his full potential, at just 8-9 with a 4.88 ERA on the year,  and wouldn’t bring the type of return that he is truly worth if Melvin decided to move him. Gallardo has been a Brewer his entire career, and I would like to see him remain a Brewer. I think the best thing to do would be to hold onto Yo at least until his value rises again. I simply do not see Melvin moving him for something less than what he is worth, which is all that he would get at this point. 

Nori Aoki – SHOULD HE BE DEALT? Yes. WILL HE BE DEALT? No.

Everyone loves Nori, myself included, but I really believe that he needs to go. The Brewers have long been out of the running this season and I don’t expect them to be contenders again during Aoki’s contract. He is only signed through 2014 and Logan Schafer is knocking on the door. I think the crew could get good value here and open a spot for a budding star in Schafer. Plenty of teams would love to have Nori’s bat in their lineup and glove in their outfield. I believe Doug would be wise to try his best to move him, however I simply don’t see it happening at this point.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Joseph Norton (@JoeP_Norton)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @TABrown23, and @10iskristin.

Brewers First Half Report Card: The Bullpen

To wrap up the mid-season grading of the Milwaukee Brewers, below is how the bullpen ranks up. Unlike last year, the bullpen has actually been a bright spot for the Brewers this season. Minus a few hiccups here and there, the bullpen has been a dominate force the National League. Coming out of the All-Star break, the Brewers bullpen ranks 3rd in the NL in ERA. With that, here we go.

Tyler Thornburg – A

Thornburg has only thrown 13.1 innings this season, but he has been very useful in his short time in the big leagues. He has compiled a 1.35 ERA and has only walked four batters while striking out nine. His biggest vulnerability last season was giving up the homerun ball. This season, he has yet to surrender a homerun (although Gomez and Schafer both pulled back balls that would have been homeruns with Thornburg on the mound). In my opinion, he deserves a spot in the starting rotation (at least on a trial basis). With the way the season is going (which is way, way down the drain), we may as well see what he can do for us.

Francisco Rodriguez – A
 
The Brewers’ current closer has a 1.19 ERA in 22.2 innings this season. He has struck out 25 while walking 8. He has only given up two homeruns this year, which is pretty impressive because that seemed to be one of his biggest weaknesses last season. He has limited opponents to a .200 batting average off of him and is a crisp 9/9 in save opportunities. Personally, I don’t think he can keep these numbers up for much longer so I’m hoping that we can ship him off to a contending team before he comes back down to earth.

John Axford – B+

While he struggled mightily for the entire month of April (losing his closer’s role to Jim Henderson), he was eventually able to get back to being the dominant John Axford who fans enjoyed watching in 2011. He has a 3.72 ERA in 38.2 innings pitched in 2013. He’s walked 17 batters, struck out 40, and has allowed 6 homeruns. He is 0/4 on the season in save opportunities, but has been very effective when used in the seventh and eighth innings. He probably has done enough to earn his closer’s role back, but with K-Rod and Henderson both currently on the team, Axford probably won’t get many opportunities to close out games for awhile.

Burke Badenhop – B
 
Overall Burke has been pretty effective for the Brewers this season, although his 4.14 ERA doesn’t necessarily reflect that. He has thrown 41.1 innings and has only given up four homers, while allowing 9 walks and striking out 30. In his career, he has always had more success getting out right handed hitters, but this year his splits are pretty even. If used in the right circumstances, he can usually get the job done.

Brandon Kintzler – B+

Kintzler owns a 2-0 record with a 3.40 ERA in 39.2 IP this season. He has only allowed 2 homeruns and twelve walks while striking out 37. He has not allowed any unearned runs to score this season. While other guys have had good months and bad months, Kintzler has been relatively consistent for the Brewers all season long. He has done a very good job getting the Brewers through to the next inning with the lead. He has zero blown saves and has recorded 9 holds this season. He’s been used in pretty much every situation this season with the exception of the closer’s role, and has shown that he’s a versatile bullpen pitcher who can be very useful for this team in the future.

Mike Gonzalez – C

While he has a respectable 3.00 ERA for the season, he hasn’t exactly been as efficient of a pitcher as some of the basic pitching stats would suggest. He has an 0-3 record this season with three blown saves to his name in 33 innings pitched. He has issued 17 walks while striking out 40 and giving up four homeruns. These all look like pretty good numbers, but you have to account for the fact that he is a “left handed specialist,” meaning that he comes into games with the specific purpose of getting out left handed hitters. Often times this means that he will be inheriting a couple of baserunners, and it’s his job to keep these runners from scoring. This season, Gonzalez has allowed 48% of inherited baserunners to score. FOURTY EIGHT PERCENT! He has a LOB% of 88% with his own baserunners, which is much better, but these are not the kind of numbers you want to see out of your left handed specialist. He was all sorts of awful in April and then seemed to figure it out in May, but hasn’t been overly impressive since his good month of May.  He has a WAR of 0, which means that he has no positive impact compared to others who are in the same role as he is. Overall he’s done an okay job, but has done a pretty poor job of getting left handed hitters out – which is what the Brewers primarily would like to use him for. He’s actually been better facing righties than lefties this year, which is kind of strange, but hey, at least he’s getting someone out?

Tom Gorzelanny – A+

Gorzelanny has probably been the Brewers overall best pitcher in 2013. He has been used both as a bullpen man and a starter, and Roenicke just announced that Gorzelanny will remain in the starting rotation permanently after his last outstanding start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has a 1.88 ERA in 52.2 IP. Most of these innings came out of the bullpen, but he has made a couple of spot starts for the Brewers this season. He has walked 20 and struck out 50. All three of his losses this year are undeserving, and two of them came in his last two starts, where he allowed zero earned runs in a combined twelve innings pitched. He has only allowed 5 homeruns this season and is holding opponents to a .196 batting average, which is outstanding. With all of the problems the Brewers have had with their starting rotation this season, it’s nice to see a guy be able to step up and help out when the Brewers desperately needed someone.

Jim Henderson – A

Henderson was installed as the closer when John Axford was removed from the role after a very poor start to the season. Jim has a 3-3 record with a 2.41 ERA in 33.2 innings pitched. He has converted 10/13 save opportunities this season and has only allowed two homeruns. He has walked 14 and struck out 35. He was virtually impossible to score upon during the first month and a half of the season, but has looked more vulnerable as of late. He had a DL stint earlier this season thanks to a tweaked hamstring and lost his closer’s role to K-Rod. He hasn’t seemed to be able to have as much success in the eighth inning as he had when he was closing games, but I think this is more of a coincidence than a “mental” thing. If (well, hopefully “when”) K-Rod is traded, Henderson may get his closer’s role back. It will be interesting to see if he could go back to being lights out in the closers role or if he continues to struggle like he has been in the seventh and eighth inning lately. Overall, he’s been better than anyone could have hoped for this season.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Kristin Zenz (@10iskristin)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @Mik3_Schu, and @10iskristin.

A Few Ideas for the Brewers at the Trade Deadline

The Brewers will be an active team during the the closing weeks of July as the Non-waiver Trade Deadline looms.

We know it's coming. Doug said it's happening. Mark A. hinted it. Major changes are coming. They will be freeing salary cap while reloading the farm system in the process. Rebuilding for success is about to begin.

I had a long conversation regarding these possible trade ideas with fellow Brewers blogger Ryan Topp (@RyanTopp), who writes over at the Disciples of Uecker blog. We collaborated for a few hours on who are high priority people that need to move, and less important players that don't necessarily need to be moved, but should be shopped.

Here are a few trades that make a lot of sense for both parties involved. These aren't rumors, so don't take them as rumors. These are just ideas of mine that I have put together through research of the prospects and team needs. So, let's get started.

1. Milwaukee Brewers trade 3B Aramis Ramirez to the Boston Red Sox for LHP Brian Johnson and 2B Mookie Betts.

This one is easy. Aramis is set to be the highest paid Brewer next year at 16 million dollars. That is a lot of money that could be freed up for a rebuilding team. Also, the Red Sox need a lot of help at the hot corner. It's been a cold corner for them, actually. Will Middlebrooks has been terrible this year. The phenomenon that is José Iglesias will eventually cool off as well, although he is playing about as good as anyone right now in the Bigs. When it's all said and done, the Red Sox will need a right handed power bat in that lineup. Ramirez could play some DH for the Red Sox if Big Papi were to play first base on those days. The Red Sox have been a nice surprise this year, and Ramirez could be a nice threat added to that already solid lineup.

As for who the Brewers could get, I like the upside in Brian Johnson. He's a south paw who has a 4-pitch arsenal. He has a good sinking fast ball that touches around 92-93, a great slider that is his out pitch, a developing change up, and a decent curve. He's having a bit of an off year at age 22, so he could be available. Brian is ranked the #13 prospect in the Red Sox organization, according to MLB.com.

Mookie Betts is a hidden gem in the Red Sox farm system.

The other component to this trade is someone hidden in the Red Sox farm system, but someone who I think has a bright future in the MLB. Second baseman Mookie Betts is showing great patience in A-ball. He's actually having a very unique season. He's one of only five players currently in the minors who has at least 7 home runs with more walks than strikeouts. Betts actually has almost twice as many walks as strike outs with at least 7 round trippers. (8 HR, 46 walks, 29 strikeouts). To put that into perspective, since 2001, only Barry Bonds has accomplished such a statistic.

I believe the Red Sox would love to have Aramis Ramirez. If they bring him back for next year, it would give the Red Sox another year to develop 3B Garin Cecchini so he's ready by 2015 to take over the hot corner in Boston.  

2. Milwaukee Brewers trade RHP Yovani Gallardo and 1B/OF Corey Hart to the Texas Rangers for 3B Mike Olt, RHP Neil Ramirez, and RHP C.J. Edwards.

There are two Yovani trades I could come up with. (Actually, the first one is mine and the other belongs to Ryan Topp) 

This might seem as a stretch for some, as Texas rarely trades away top prospects. But, there's a part of me that believes Texas has a secret man crush on these two Brewers. A lot of this trade may be apart of a desperation move by Texas if suspensions are handed out to Nelson Cruz for being a part of the Biogenesis scandal.

The Rangers are having all sorts of starting pitching issues to people not named Yu Darvish. Injury after injury after injury has caused over half the rotation to land on the DL. Gallardo has been proven to be a rather healthy guy since his ACL tear and recovery, which is appealing to any team looking for a reliable pitcher.

Another thing worth noting is that a trade very similar to this almost happened between the Brewers and Rangers last season when the Brewers were shopping Zack Greinke. Much like I mentioned above, the Rangers were reluctant to want to move any big prospects. However, now the Rangers have talked about moving guys like third base prospect Mike Olt, who would have to be the big name to come from Texas to the Brewers if they were to send Gallardo.

Neil Ramirez and C.J. Edwards are two pitching prospects the Brewers would likely be interested in. Much like the Zack Greinke trade, the Brewers will focus on getting a top prospect and then get two potentially great players as well. However, this time the Brewers will have to send more than one player, and it could be Corey Hart if he can prove he can play after the All-Star break. Texas would love the power bat of Corey Hart especially if worse comes to worst for Nelson Cruz. But the likelihood of any team wanting Hart is slim. So maybe you look to move Nori Aoki? Just to shop him, as he is one of the guys you wouldn't mind having in future plans but definite depth is there in the minors in case you do move him. Furthermore, Logan Schafer is sure proving he can be an every day player, thus losing Aoki wouldn't pinch as much.

OR

Milwaukee Brewers trade RHP Yovani Gallardo and 2B Rickie Weeks to the Baltimore Orioles for RHP Kevin Gausman, 1B Christian Walker, and C Michael Ohlman

Baltimore makes about the most sense on paper. Baltimore desperately needs pitching, and they have a ton of prospects. Plus, their issues at second base were like the Brewers' issues at shortstop a few years back. They have nothing acceptable now, and nothing in the works in their minor league system, which is why the trade makes a huge amount of sense.

Gausman after signing his contract last season.

Much like the trade above, this trade would have to produce a top prospect from the Orioles farm system. Kevin Gausman is the obvious choice. Taken 4th overall in the 2012 MLB Draft, Gausman is quickly climbing the levels of the Orioles farm system. Currently pitching in Triple-A along side with Dylan Bundy, he has been rather impressive. Ignoring the wins and losses, Kevin has a 3.11 ERA with 46 strikeouts and only 5 walks. He's got ace potential, number 2 guy at worst. He's going to be a front line starter in the near future.

If we are sending Weeks too, then I expect more names to be involved in such a trade like this. Christian Walker would be a great get for the Brewers in case the Hunter Morris project doesn't work out. Walker hits for average (currently batting .317 in the minors). He has 81 hits with 21 of them going for extra bases (14 doubles, 7 home runs). Currently plays in High-A ball and projected to make MLB debut somewhere in 2015-2016.

Finally, a little bit of a gamble but high ceiling player is Michael Ohlman. He's a catcher. He had a really bad year in 2011. Since then, he's been turning it up and showing vast improvements. Some scouts don't trust it, but you can't ignore the stats. In 2011 he hit .224. Two years later, he's batting .283. Still not "blown away" numbers, but they are definitely noteworthy. 

All of this comes together with sending away Rickie Weeks. The Orioles have a serious issue in their farm system with a lack of developing a second baseman. Weeks would bide them a few years time to address that issue. As much as don't want to see Weeks go, his salary bumps up to 11 million dollars next year and that may weigh the Brewers down if they truly focus on rebuilding.

3. Milwaukee Brewers trade LHP Michael/Mike Gonzalez and RHP Francisco Rodriguez to the Detroit Tigers for OF Tyler Collins, LHP Matt Hoffman, and RHP Melvin Mercedes.

This one is a no-brainer. The Tigers need bullpen help. Bad. Jose Valverde is showing the Tigers why they didn't bring him back in the offseason. They have no real reliable source in the pen to take over the closer duties besides Phil Coke. Bruce Rondon was a big tug of war as far as will he be or won't he be our closer. Bottom-line, the Tigers need bullpen arms.

The Brewers could send a proven closer in K-Rod and a decent situational pitcher in Gonzalez in exchange for a few prospects. Both are veterans which is something that (kind of) young bullpen staff needs. 

The most important thing to remember is that this is what the Tigers need right now. They may be willing to part ways with some guys in the lower parts of their minor system to win now, which is why I chose Matt Hoffman and Melvin Mercedes. They both are promising relief pitchers that are just tearing up the minor leagues right now. Hoffman is 24 years old left handed pitcher in Triple-A for the Tigers. Hoffman is not on the Tigers 40 man roster, which is odd. He currently has an ERA of 1.13.

Melvin Mercedes might be a bit tough to get from Detroit. He's on their 40 man and he's having a better season than Hoffman. Granted the right handed pitcher is only 22 years of age pitching in High-A, his numbers are still really good. As a closer, Mercedes is sporting a line of 0.66 ERA/0.91 WHIP/.202 AVG, 11 saves, and 17 strikeouts in 27.1 innings pitched.

Finally, Tyler Collins is a corner outfielder with some good pop in his bat. Though only batting .223 so far this year, he is still putting up pretty decent stats. 22 extra base hits on 45 total hits, including 9 home runs.

4. Milwaukee Brewers trade RHP Kyle Lohse to the San Francisco Giants for LHP Michael Kickham and LHP Ty Blach.

The Giants will be looking for a helluva lot more than just starting pitching come the trade deadline. They need help all around the baseball diamond. The starting rotation, bullpen, second base, and outfield all need to be addressed for them. I think the Brewers will help them with a starting pitcher as Kyle Lohse makes a lot of sense here. They have some payroll freeing up after this season as the Barry Zito contract is on it's tail end. So picking up Lohse's contract wouldn't be all that bad for them.

Kickham pitching for the Giants' Triple-A affiliate.

Unlike the teams listed above, the Giants farm system isn't anything to write home about. There are a few guys that stand out that I think would have to be a part of the deal. The first being Michael Kickman. He's a lefty. He's got a good strike out pitch. And, he's likely only a year or so away from being 100% Big League ready. He made one start for the Giants this year and showed he isn't exactly ready yet. He only lasted 2 1/3 innings and is sporting a 15.43 ERA. He'll be a great middle of the rotation guy once he's truly ready.

Ty Blach is an interesting one. He's not anywhere near Baseball America's Top 30 (per team) for the Giants. Yet, he's tossing really good numbers so far this year for High-A. He's 7-2 over 12 starts, 2.41 ERA/1.09 WHIP/.255 AVG, while striking out 63 batters and only surrendering 8 walks. I like his upside and can be a good middle of the order lefty arm.

(A side note here: I'm not sure how serious we should be taking the San Diego Padres right now, but they are sure playing some great baseball and could be buyers at the deadline if they seriously have a Wild Card slot in sight. They would need pitching, and a lot of it.)

I'm not saying every single trade idea will happen, but these are some options the Brewers will have. They will be heavily shopping players for the next month and a half. It's going to be a pretty wild time. Change can be hard to deal with, especially as a fan because of the connection you develop with your favorite players. But, a change of landscape is needed for this team and it should be something everyone should be looking forward to if they want to Brewers to succeed in the near future.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Andrew Vrchota (@AndrewVrchota)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @Mik3_Schu, and @10iskristin.