Green Bay Packers Season Preview - Defense

The Best Defense is a Good Offense

For whatever reason, it seems the Green Bay Packers have given it their all in proving this long heard football axiom. The 2011 and 2012 seasons saw the offense rank first and third respectively in points scored while the defense was dead last in yards allowed in 2011. Last year the defense improved to a solid 11th in yards allowed, but after watching the 49ers run rampant in the NFC divisional playoff round I don’t think anyone is scared seeing the Packers D on their 2013 schedule. Since letting DE Cullen Jenkins leave via free agency after the 2010 season and losing S Nick Collins to career ending spinal injury in week 2 of 2011, the Packers defense has allowed just under 260 yards passing and 2 TDs a game(including playoffs). Since both absences were nearly simultaneous it is impossible to point to one as reason for the decline of the pass defense. I tend to lean more toward the Collins injury as the most important but both pass rush (or lack thereof) and pass coverage has been missing. Let’s explore a little more shall we?

The Culprits

Ted Thompson has made a lot of brilliant moves during his tenure as GM of the Packers, but letting Cullen Jenkins sign with the Eagles after the 2010 Super Bowl was not one of them. Following his blueprint of letting older free agents go and relaying on more economical(read cheaper) younger players, starting defensive end opposite Ryan Pickett in 2011 fell to a combination of Jarius Wynn and CJ Wilson. In 2010 while playing alongside Jenkins, who tallied 14 QB hits and 9 tackles for loss, Wynn and Wilson combined for 10 QB hits and 4 tackles for loss. Without Jenkins in the mix in 2011 Wynn and Wilson’s productivity plummeted, combining for just 3 QB hits and 9 tackles for loss.  The evidence was overwhelming enough; Thompson spent three of his first four draft picks in 2012 on defensive front seven players trying to find someone capable of taking pressure of Clay Matthews. With the Eagles in 2011 Jenkins registered 11 QB hits and 11 tackles for loss and while those numbers do not necessarily translate if he had stayed in green and gold, Jenkins certainly would have provided more firepower than anyone else on the roster that season.

The case for replacing Nick Collins is not quite so cut and dry statistically, however the falloff was much greater. While a solid player, Cullen Jenkins is not an All Pro level player. Collins was a three time 2nd team All NFL player at safety from 2008-2010 and a ball hawk, generating turnovers via interception and forced fumble. Collins most iconic Packers moment, his Super Bowl 45 interception returned for a TD best exemplifies his free ranging and big play ability. Yet despite all the turnovers and defensive touchdowns, Collins best attribute was recognition of offenses and ensuring the rest of the Packers defensive backs where properly aligned and understood the coverage for each play. In the NFL where physical ability only takes you so far, preparation through film study and on field recognition and adjustment is what separates the great players from the average. Replacing the understanding of 7 year veteran Collins with second year player Morgan Burnett and journey man Charlie Peprah was a gigantic task, particularly when combined with a less effective pass rush.

The Answers

2011 was rock bottom defensively for the Ted Thompson Packers. This led to the first six picks of the 2012 draft focused on the defensive side of the ball. Combined with 2013 first round draft pick Datone Jones from UCLA, the defense is loaded with young players ready to prove themselves. Odds are one or two will separate and become a difference maker this season. Here are the favorites in terms of impact in descending order:

#1 S – Morgan Burnett – fresh off a 4 year $25 million dollar extension, Burnett is entering his fourth season in the league and third as an entrenched starter. If you’re a fan of history, 4th year safeties in the Packers organization are primed for break out seasons. Predecessors Leroy Butler, Darren Sharper and Nick Collins all became Pro Bowl players during their fourth year.  All this points to a good omen for Burnett, who has shown flashes the past two years defending passes and as an occasional blitzer. Look for defensive coordinator Dom Capers to use Burnett in a more flexible roll (similar to Charles Woodson) to roam in coverage or attack the QB off the edge.

#2 DE – Datone Jones – a lot of pressure has been put on the rookie from UCLA to liven the defensive line that has been awfully stagnant since Jenkins departure. Early reports out of training camp indicate Jones to be impressing with both his strength and speed, something the Packers are hoping will combat the trendy ‘read option’ offense that terrorized them against the 49ers in the playoffs. The Packers think so highly of Jones he has even taken some reps on kickoff coverage, a rarity for defensive linemen.

#3 OLB – Nick Perry – his size and speed are rare even by NFL standards(between Perry and Jones they are definitely looking for a Jenkins-like replacement) That combination was on full display last season when the power generated in sacking Andrew Luck caused the referees (non-replacement even) into thinking he had helmet to helmet contact with the Colts QB. Like Jones and any other pass rusher, Perry has to show the ability to consistently beat one on one matchups while teams concentrate most efforts into slowing down Matthews.

#4 S – Jerron McMillan/ MD Jennings – one of these two players has to emerge and warrant all the first team defensive reps. Thus far in camp they have been splitting opportunities practice to practice. While the competition surely brings out the best in both players, it hampers the cohesiveness the defensive backfield needs to prevent assignment and alignment issues of years past. Both players saw action last year as rookies but were inconsistent in performance. McMillan has been making a few more standout plays disrupting the offense early on and seems to be the front runner.

Just missed the cut – CB - Davon House , CB – Sam Shields, DL – Mike Daniels.

Note - For what it’s worth, Casey Hayward has already broken out and is probably the 4 or 5 most important defensive player already but it would be nice to get him healthy and back on the practice field sooner rather than later.

The Verdict

The defense has taken a beating these past two seasons. Earlier than expected playoffs exits put everyone on notice, but especially Dom Capers who battled rumors and speculation his time as defensive coordinator should end. Mike McCarthy quickly ended those thoughts and gave Capers the dreaded ‘vote of confidence’ in a feisty post season press conference ensuring Capers would be back this season. The bottom line is Capers has been provided with plenty of young, defensive talent over the past two years and is now in a make or break season. They have already lost two seasons of Aaron Rodgers sublime career and cannot count on too many more windows of opportunity. Hopefully 2013 is remembered as the season the defense rose to meet the quality of play from the offense, if not Dom Capers might be looking for work in the offseason. And who even knows, maybe the Vikings are looking for more castoffs?

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Neal Olson (@olewr7)

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, @TABrown23, and @10iskristin.

Packers Needs By Position: Defense/Special Teams

Yesterday, I looked at the Packers’ needs on offense. Today, I’ll look at the defense and special teams. Let’s go.

Defensive End

•   Mike Neal
•   Mike Daniels
•   Jerel Worthy
•   CJ Wilson

Neal, Daniels, and Worthy are all in the same boat; young players that have shown flashes of dominance but can’t maintain a high level of play over the course of a game. Neal has been around longer and has had more injury issues as well as a suspension, so he’s probably on thinner ice than the other two. Wilson is a solid run defender but doesn’t bring much in the pass rush department. An upgrade would be useful here.

Free agency doesn’t offer much, and certainly not in the 3-4 end category. The team brought in Chris Canty (who’d likely be an end in the Packers’ system) for a visit, but he’s pretty average and they haven’t offered a deal yet. Mike Devito, Richard Seymour, and Ricky Jean Francois would be fits, and Israel Idonije and Jonathan Fanene could probably handle a transition to the 3-4. I’ve always liked Trevor Scott and Matt Shaughnessy but they’re both too undersized for the scheme. All four of the current ends are Ted Thompson draft picks, and it seems likely he’d address the position that way, though a reunion with Cullen Jenkins would have been nice, however he signed with the Giants today. Oh well.
Need: High

Defensive Tackle

•   Ryan Pickett
•   BJ Raji
•   Jordan Miller

Pickett is still useful but is well past his prime. Raji is their best lineman but hasn’t quite been the dominant force they need him to be. After a tremendous 2010, BJ’s performance has dropped off the last two seasons. Miller hasn’t seen any regular season snaps and is likely a non-factor.

There are some free agents with 3-4 mileage but the team isn’t going to replace Raji or Pickett, unless the team decides it’s time to cut Pickett. Isaac Sopoaga is a pretty good player and can play tackle or end, he’d be a hell of a fit but will have a high price tag. A rookie to groom behind Raji and Pickett seems like a probable thing that will happen.
Need: Low

Inside Linebacker

•   Desmond Bishop
•   DJ Smith
•   AJ Hawk
•   Brad Jones (FA)
•   Rob Francois
•   Terrell Manning
•   Micah Johnson

What A.J. Hawk thinks of your run game.

Bishop and Smith should probably be the starters if healthy. Both are coming off knee injuries so that’s not a given. Hawk is an average player who’s a cut candidate because of his price tag. He played well during the Super Bowl run but has had a rough couple of years since. Jones (who’s a free agent) has always been more of a 4-3 OLB type than a 3-4 ILB but performed admirably when forced into action. Ideally, he’s a backup. Francois is a good special teamer who has played well when given defensive snaps but was passed over last year for some reason when injuries happened. The reluctance to play him was rather puzzling. Manning hasn’t been able to get on the field since being drafted.

Free agency won’t be a thing. Not much out there to begin with. Probably a couple draftees/UFAs for competition and depth but unless Bishop and Smith are slow to recover I don’t see a major move happening.
Need: Medium

Outside Linebacker

•   Clay Matthews
•   Nick Perry
•   Frank Zombo (RFA)
•   Erik Walden (FA)
•   Dezman Moses
•   Jamari Lattimore

Eat your hearts out, literally.

Matthews kicks balls, metaphorically speaking. Everyone else......much less so, both literally and figuratively. Perry was drafted to be a bookend to Clay but sustained an ACL injury and missed most of the season, meaning the awful backups had to play. Walden has the occasional big game but overall was pretty bad and was an absolute disaster in the playoff loss to the 49ers, contributing to the defeat in a big way. He has no grasp of what contain is. Fortunately, he’s a free agent. Moses and Zombo play hard but aren’t good enough to be any more than backups. Lattimore isn’t anything to get excited about.

Even with Perry around the team can’t put itself in the same position it was in last year, especially considering Matthews isn’t exactly an ironman either. This seems like a position where free agency may be necessary. Paul Kruger is a hot (and probably expensive) free agent name but Shaun Phillips and Connor Barwin are solid players that can take some pressure off of Matthews. As is the theme, the draft is an option but with Perry around they already have a young prospect with starting potential. Either way depth is an absolute necessity.
Need: High

Cornerback

•   Tramon Williams
•   Sam Shields (RFA)
•   Casey Hayward
•   Davon House
•   Jarrett Bush
•   James Nixon

Williams has been average at best the last two seasons, and that’s kind. He’s not the aggressive playmaker he was, and isn’t physical in coverage anymore. He’s already been told he has to compete for a starting job, and rightfully so. Hayward had fantastic rookie season, and House showed promise after basically redshirting the previous year. Shields was also excellent despite some missed time and eased some concerns after a sluggish 2011. Bush is the special teams ace that shouldn’t see many defensive snaps.
 
The team has their five corners. Moving on....
Need: Low

Safety

•   Morgan Burnett
•   MD Jennings
•   Jerron McMillian
•   Sean Richardson
•   Chaz Powell

Like cornerback, there’s some promise here. Jennings and McMillian both showed some flashes, Burnett looked solid and was probably underrated amid the 2011 defensive disaster. All three could use a little work in run support, and Burnett at times seems hesitant to make plays on the ball. The team seems to like Richardson, who was a college teammate of Hayward’s. He could see a bump in playing time much like Jennings did in 2012. Jarrett Bush can also fill in here, though once again that’s far from optimal. Overall, none of these guys look like a star, but at worst they should be average players going forward.

While adding a free agent seems extremely unlikely, it’s a terrific class. It wouldn’t be outlandish for the team to bring in a veteran for depth or look to add a playmaker in the wake of Charles Woodson’s departure, but there’s better ways to spend cap space. Spending a draft pick here seems iffy unless it’s a best-player-available scenario.
Need: Low-ish

Kicker

•   Mason Crosby

Well all know Crosby had a bad year. In fact, 2011 was Crosby’s only actual good year, and he was bad enough in 2012 to even it out. His accuracy will probably never be great, but his leg cannon is a weapon on kickoffs and he’s still a threat to make a field goal from any distance.

Of the free agents, Steven Hauschka is the only guy I even remotely like, and his skill set isn’t all that dissimilar from Crosby. They won’t sign a FA anyways, it’s far more likely they bring in a camp body just to provide competition. They’re financially committed to Mason, so I doubt a change happens.
Need: Medium

Punter

•   Tim Masthay

Masthay is really, really good. Seriously, you guys.
Need: Nope

Long Snapper

•   Brett Goode

Most of you probably didn’t even know who the Packers’ long snapper is, which is as good a thing as you can say about a long snapper.
Need: Does anyone ever need a new long snapper?

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Jerry Eldred (@jheldred)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu, @jheldred, @B_Toom_3, and @olewr7. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)

NFL Draft: Packers Offseason Needs

Another Green Bay Packers football season has come and gone and our beloved green and gold fell short of the super bowl once again. While the year certainly had its highlights, one can’t really help but feel a bit disappointed in the overall result of the season. The team’s Super Bowl championship just two years ago and the fantastic play from Aaron Rodgers at the quarterback position have led to very high expectations for cheese-heads everywhere and hopes of tasting the super bowl again each year. The 2012 squad was good, but was certainly not without flaws. Below I list the three biggest positional needs that the Packers need to address if they hope to get back to the Super Bowl in 2014.

Photo: Sports Illustrated

Running Back. The team thought it had something special with the acquisition of Cedric Benson just prior to the start of the 2012 NFL season. Benson was coming off back to back 1,000 yard seasons and immediately became the most experienced and talented running back on the roster the moment the Packers signed him. While he wasn’t spectacular, the Packers certainly had a more consistent, threatening rushing attack in the weeks prior to his injury. Once Benson went down, the trio of Alex Green, James Starks, and Dujaun Harris was less than impressive. The team tried to add some spark with the late season signing of Ryan Grant and while he wasn’t terrible, he also doesn’t look to be a long term solution to the Packers’ running problems. I think that Ted Thompson needs to throw in the towel on an aging Benson and invest in a running back with one of his first two picks in April’s draft. Alabama’s Eddie Lacy (right), North Carolina’s Giovani Bernard, and Wisconsin’s Montee Ball project to be the top three backs in this year’s class. I think it would be wise of Thompson to set his sights on getting one of these three in order to establish a running future in Green Bay.  As a lifelong Badger fan, I am also spearheading the “Montee to Green Bay” campaign if anyone would like to hop on that bandwagon with me.

Offensive Line. Aaron Rodgers spent way too much time on his back last season. In fact, he was sacked 51 times, the most in the NFL during the regular season. While I know many fans like to place part of the blame on Rodgers himself for holding on to the ball too long, the bottom line is that more often than not, he did not have the time he needed to find an open receiver down field. I truly believe that Josh Sitton is one of the best guards in football and I don’t think T.J. Lang is very far behind. Bryan Bulaga was drafted to be the left tackle of the future but the team seems set on keeping him on the right side going forward. I believe those three men are capable in those positions, however I am not even close to convinced that Marshall Newhouse and Evan Dietrich-Smith are going to be better than someone Thompson could find in the top five rounds of the upcoming draft. I think some serious consideration needs to go into replacing these two guys in an effort to better project Rodgers in the future.

Photo: Fan Nation

Tight End. Jermichael Finley is no doubt one of the most talented tight ends in football. He is not, however, one of the best tight ends in football. Many may disagree with this, but to me, consistency must factor into rating a player at this level. Finley simply disappears far too often when the team needs to rely on him to be a presence in the passing game. Yes, he drops the ball a lot, but to me it is more a matter of consistently making plays. This is something that I have not seen much of when looking at Finley over the past two seasons. I think the team needs to cut ties with this reportedly disgruntled under-performer and move forward with a tight end from the 2013 draft class.

Some might wonder why I don’t feel that any part of the defense ranks among the top three positional needs on my list. While I don’t feel that the Packers’ defense is elite, I believe that they made some significant steps in that direction last offseason. I think this unit can certainly be elite with the players that it currently has on the roster. I am excited about the futures of Casey Hayward, Nick Perry, and Jerel Worthy and I am confident that Thompson will add some quality depth in coming drafts. I think that the current defensive unit needs some time to grow and mature, and hopefully stay healthy, before we can start looking to replace them.

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Joe Norton (@JoeP_Norton)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @Brandon_BFP, @SMahon2Go. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)