Wisconsin Badger 2014 Tournament Preview

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Is this the year Bo Ryan silences the doubters with a Final Four run?

Let’s start out with some comparisons. The 2006-2007 team was by most accounts Bo Ryan’s most successful regular season team. They climbed all the way to a number one ranking in the AP poll, a first in program history. The Badgers also took advantage of the NCAA’s summer exhibition in a foreign country rule and began the year with a trip to Italy. Flash forward to 2014. Wisconsin started the season with a trip to Canada going 4-1 against top college programs north of the border and climbed to a top 5 ranking. But the similarities don’t stop there.

	Record	Highest Rank	Points Scored	Points Allowed	KenPom Off. Effenciency	KenPom Def. Efficiency	KenPom Tempo	NCAA seed
2014	26-7	3	73.5	64.6	119.5	98.7	64.4	#2
2007	30-6	1	70.2	57.9	112.5	89.8	64.4	#2

Don't forget about Brian Butch and Alando Tucker, part of the only Badger team to be ranked #1 in the country

The 2007 and 2014 teams were strikingly similar. This year’s team is better offensively and the Alando Tucker and Brian Butch led team stouter defensively. Even more amazing was both teams averaged 64.4 possessions a game. However, 2014 has one distinct advantage of 2007, this year the Badgers enter the tournament healthy (losing Brian Butch with a dislocated elbow against Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament was a killer for that NCAA tournament run).

In order to avoid the early tournament exit here are few keys for Wisconsin to advance out of the West Region.

How Wisconsin Wins the West

Get Sam Dekker back on track.

Dekker has been in a self-admitted mini slump the past few weeks. After scoring 16 points against Indiana February 25  in a 69-58 win, Dekker was averaging 13.6 points a game. The next five games, including the Big Ten Tournament, Dekker averaged 7.8 points and saw his season average dip down to 12.7 points a game.

More attacking from Dekker will mean a more dangerous offense.

One of the best aspects of Sam’s game is his unselfishness. While his willingness to involve teammates is admirable, especially when the Badgers have plenty of scorers, the NCAA tournament is a different matter. Someone has to be willing to take over games. Frank Kaminsky has shown he can be the go to scorer at times this season (25 and 21 points in road wins against Michigan and Iowa). But Kaminksy also has a penchant for picking up fouls (2 points, 20 minutes, 4 fouls at Illinois and 9 points, 15 minutes and 2 quick first half fouls).

Lack of aggression has plagued Dekker on occasion throughout the season. Against Ohio State Bo Ryan incredulously mocked Sam’s weak-hearted effort cutting the hoop. But when Sam is on the attack, driving to the hoop or grabbing rebounds, the Badgers are better. In Badgers 26 wins, Dekker averages 13.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists. In six losses his averages dropped to 10.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and less than one assist. Sam is one of the few Badger players that can generate shots off the dribble and when he is aggressive it creates more open shots for everyone.

In order for Wisconsin to advance out the West Region one player will need establish themselves as the go to man. My money is on Slam Dekker.

Freshman Contributions

Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig have emerged as key cogs to a Badger tournament run

Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig were wildcards at the beginning of the season. With one senior playing regular minutes, how quickly the two freshman could adjust to big time college basketball would go a long way toward determining the team's success. Consider Hayes and Koenig as having passed that test.

Hayes really came on during Big Ten conference play, upping his per game average by over three per game.  He gives Wisconsin another mismatch with his offensive versatility.  He can take bigger guys off the dribble with his quickness and patented post move Chocolate Tornado. Conversely he can hit the mid-range jump shot with enough consistency to keep defenders honest.

Koenig on the other hand has had more of an up and down season playing behind three upper classmen in the back court. But after his 14 point outburst against Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, he demonstrated his ability to provide more than just consistent ball handling and decision making off the bench. If Koenig can continue to hit the outside shot, the Badgers will have seven of eight rotation players as legitimate three point threats.

If both Hayes and Koenig can continue their aggressive play they will a great chance to showcase their skills on a national stage in the tournament.

What Sends Wisconsin Home

No Defensive Stops

Without question Wisconsin has struggled on the defensive end this season, sometimes for long stretches. During the January stretch when the Badgers lost five out of six games in two weeks, they allowed opponents to shoot 51.2% on field goal attempts including a blistering 48% from behind the arc. No matter how potent the offense is compared to previous Badger teams, you cannot win allowing teams to shoot nearly 50% from three point land.

Collectively the Badgers have a tendency to lapse into lackadaisical defense. Their miscommunication was on full display in the January 22 loss at Minnesota. Sam Dekker chases non-shooting threat Oto Osenieks out toward the three point line as he attempts to screen Ben Brust guarding Austin Hollins. Brust anticipates Dekker to switch and take Hollins as he drives to the hoop. But Dekker keeps trailing Osenieks(again – a career 23% three point shooter) and Brust turns Hollins loose. The result is painful.

It doesn't get much better either. The following is a list of teams the Badgers could potentially face and their offensive efficiency from KenPom.  If Wisconsin advances to Dallas in the Final Four they will have to beat some of the top offenses in the country. Yikes.

	KenPom Off. Eff.	Rank	Round Facing
American	103.2	200	First Round
BYU	113.7	27	Round of 32
Oregon	117	12	Round of 32
Creighton	125	1	Sweet Sixteen
Baylor	118.5	7	Sweet Sixteen
Arizona	113.1	35	Elite Eight
Oklahoma State	113.9	25	Elite Eight

While they cannot be expected to suddenly turn into a defensive juggernaut, Wisconsin will need to shore up the communication and find a way to get a few big stops in order to keep dancing into March.

Front Court Foul Trouble

Frank Kaminsky and Nigel Hayes must stay on the floor.

The front court depth has been a concern all season. Certainly the emergence of Nigel Hayes has provided some relief, but he still has a tendency to pick up silly fouls. Frank Kaminsky has turned into a reliable defensive anchor and protects the rim well. However, his penchant for challenging shots almost always results in a stretch each game with him on bench infoul trouble.

Behind Hayes and Kaminsky the Badgers are dangerously thin in post players. Sam Dekker and Duje Dukan are more comfortable playing on the wing, freshman Vitto Brown and senior Evan Anderson are not quite ready for long stretches playing big time basketball.

Additionally Hayes and Kaminsky are the most consistent only post threats the Badgers have. Without those two on the floor, the Badgers become way too reliable on outside jump shots. As noted above Wisconsin will have to face some potent offenses to advance out of the region and in all likelihood will have win one game in a shootout (not something Bo Ryan teams are accustomed to).

Certainly the Badgers have enough capable shooters to get hot and bomb three pointers a la Jon Bryant in 2000. But this year the Badgers have been most potent when they work inside out. Without Kaminksy and Hayes getting the ball in the post, the Badgers have become too reliant on outside jumpers. Getting the defense to collapse with those two attacking inside allows the open outside shots to develop.

Unless Dekker is reinvigorated slashing and attacking the rim, Hayes and Kaminsky are the best bets to keep the offensive from being one dimensional. It is imperative to keep them out of foul trouble and out on the floor.

The Verdict

Ben Brust and Sam Dekker have Wisconsin poised for its first Final Four since 2000

I still think this Badger team has shades of Michigan from last year. Both teams were undefeated in non-conference play and struggled somewhat in the rugged and physical Big Ten. Once Michigan entered the tournament, their offensive prowess was on full display and they were 20 minutes of a national title.

Wisconsin is built a lot like that team. Not nearly as defensive oriented as Bo Ryan teams of yesteryear, the Badgers are versatile on offense. They have a nice balance of scoring. 45% of the Badger's points come on two point shots, while 31% are on three point makes. The division one average is 51% and 27% respectively. 

They have also won games in a variety of styles and pace. The Badgers have beaten teams scoring in the 100s, 90s, 80s, 70s, 60s, 50s and 40s, an incredible range that speaks to their flexibility. Tournament games are often about match-ups, and Wisconsin has shown the ability to match anything they face. A good sign for the randomness and unpredictability of March Madness.

Something tells me this will be the year Bo Ryan finally gets to the Final Four. The team is talented, the bracket isn’t overwhelming and eventually, a coach as good a Bo gets to the Final Four, right?

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Neal Olson

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Packers, Brewers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live in-game commentary, breaking news, rumors, previews, and post game discussion. Follow the entire writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, and @10iskristin

Death, Taxes, and Bo Ryan - A Wisconsin Badger Basketball Preview

Bo Ryan making it rain

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The college basketball season is upon us, which means Bo Ryan’s Wisconsin team once again figures to finish in the top 4 of the Big Ten and make the NCAA tournament. The bad news - the Badgers have to replace all three starting front court players and only return two post players that averaged more than ten minutes a game. The good news - they return four guards that have starting experience in a Wisconsin uniform, oh let’s not forget Sam Dekker, but more on him later.

For the most part the eight man rotation is set.  F Frank Kaminsky, F Sam Dekker, G Josh Gasser, G Ben Brust and G Traevon Jackson will start. G George Marshall, F Duje Dukan and F Zach Bohannon will start out as the first options off the bench. However, a couple freshmen, F Nigel Hayes and G Bronson Koenig, will make their case for more playing time as the season progresses. In fact, let’s break down the roster.

Each player will be projected into one of the following categories.

Redshirts - these players have either announced a redshirt year or could benefit from a year of development in the program.

Bench Mob – these players figure to play sparingly. Perhaps someone push for playing time as eight or ninth option in the rotation.

Wildcards – freshman who are talented enough to play right away if they can be trusted, could be surpassed by one of the bench mob.

Starting Level Role Players – solid players that due to team needs can/should contribute one or two specific attributes.

Running Mates – high level players capable of carrying the team on some nights and in favorable matchups.

Alpha Dog – can dominate any game against any competition

Redshirts

Aaron Moesch – Preferred walk on needs a year to add strength and develop in order to consistently contribute

Jordan Smith – Guard depth will allow Smith to take a year of development in hopes he can contribute more as a redshirt senior than this year.

Zak Showalter – Same story, loaded guard position this season, will be able to see the floor more as a redshirt junior or senior.

Jordan Hill – Despite no big time college offers out of high school Hill has shown during Canada trip and exhibitions he definitely belongs on this level. Quick feet and aggressive defense means he will be a mainstay in the rotation sometime during his time at Wisconsin. Guard depth and age (won’t turn 19 until December) means he could benefit from another year with the team and not use eligibility.

Riley Dearring – More of the same, guard depth is the biggest reason for him redshirt.  Dearing will be a solid contributor and rotational player in 2-3 years.  He has nice length and a very good outside shot. Dearring will definitely benefit from a year in strength program to add quickness and explosiveness.

Bench Mob

Evan Anderson – Hard to see him on the floor consistently in meaningful action unless there is significant foul trouble along the front court.

Zach Bohannon – A solid player who can be counted on in spurts to play solid defense and play within the offense. He will need to hold off Vitto Brown for playing time as the fifth forward in the rotation. He has earned the coaches trust with his high basketball IQ, he is rarely out of position. However he will be challenged to consistently score on offense against strong and quicker players.

Vitto Brown – Very talented defensively and will use that advantage for playing time in games when the Badgers need more muscle on the board and in post defense. Bo Ryan rarely uses more than eight guys in a consistent rotation and right now Brown is probably running ninth. Will need to show during the non-conference slate he can be counted on in order to get more playing time against Big Ten competition.

Duje Dukan – Redshirted year last year and improved his confidence and assertiveness on the offensive end. During the Canada trip, Dukan averaged 8.8 points a game good for fifth highest production on the team. Playing time will be heavily tied to his energy and effort on the defensive end where he will be asked to guard players with a sizable weight and strength advantage. Will start as the first forward off the bench, but could lose that role to Hayes or Brown as the season progresses.

Wildcards

Nigel Hayes – During the Canada trip in August, Hayes didn’t play much and looked every bit like a freshman experiencing his first major college basketball action.  In the exhibition game against UW-Platteville, Hayes displayed a knack for offensive rebounding and tallied an efficient 8 points on 4-7 shooting in 14 minutes. He also impressed in a combined practice (closed door scrimmage) against DePaul. Hayes pushing for playing time over Dukan and Bohannon is a best case scenario and will translate to a more complete and versatile team. A lot is riding on Hayes this year.

Bronson Koenig – Probably the most college ready player of the freshman. It speaks to Koenig’s talent that he can compete for playing time with all the guard depth. The Badgers will frequently be using three and perhaps four guard lineups. Koenig is comfortable at either guard spot and will not be overwhelmed by the level of competition. He is always in control and excels and running the offense and seeing the floor. If Koenig progresses as expected he will keep the guard rotation with fresher legs, especially as Gasser works back from ACL surgery.

Starting Level Role Players

Josh Gasser – Aside from the freshman, Gasser is the biggest unknown entering the year. When the season starts he will be just over a year removed from tearing his ACL. How close is he to the player that held Vanderbilt’s John Jenkins to his worst shooting performance (13 points on 3-13 shooting, 20 ppg on the season) in the 2012 NCAA tournament? Gasser is an outstanding and versatile defender when healthy. His ability to guard opposing team’s small forwards will determine how successful the Badgers can be using three or even four guard lineups. Gasser also has amazing court presence and is an outstanding rebounder for a guard. Badgers will need their guards to pick up some of the rebound void left by Evans, Bruiser and Berggren. Expect Gasser to lead the way.

George Marshall – Marshall finished last year with the team’s third best 3-point shooting percentage and really established himself as spot up shooter. As he makes the leap from redshirt freshman to sophomore, Marshall will be expected to contribute more than long distance shooting. Last year he had a tendency to play too fast and let his game spin out of control. With another year under his belt, Marshall can focus that energy and provide a nice change of pace off the bench.

Traevon Jackson – Last year was a huge growing up season for Traevon Jackson. He had three different game tying or winning shots but was also good for one extremely lazy turnover and one heated argument with a teammate or official per game. By his own account the biggest thing he worked on to improve his game during the offseason was his maturity. He has earned and cemented his place at the point guard of the team. Expect to see a lot of games similar to the exhibition against Platteville: 7 assists, 1 turnover and a Badger victory. The Badgers do not need Trae to shoulder the scoring burden every night, but having a player with the big shot chops out on the court every night is a luxury few teams have.

Running Mates

Ben Brust – Continues the outstanding tradition of guard development under the tutelage of Bo Ryan. Brust is an accomplished shooter and can get hot and change a game in a hurry. He has made 6 or more 3 pointer three different games. He also is responsible for one of the more iconic shots in Badger history. But he is more than a shooter. Brust has improved in every facet of the game each year since arriving in Madison. He provides above average perimeter defense and rebounding for his position. It will not be unusual to see Brust lead the team in scoring, however, his energy and leadership (1 of 2 seniors on the roster) will be needed most this year.

Frank Kaminsky - Perhaps no other player on the roster enters this season with as much pressure as Kaminsky. Listed at 7’ (just the 5^th 7-footer in program history) he will be shoulder a bulk of the defense and rebounding void left by Berggren, Evans and Bruesewitz. The good news is Kaminsky displayed an assertive offensive game in Canada averaging 15.6 points. His long range shooting (over 30% from 3 point range) stretches the defense and opens up lanes for the guards to drive. The bad news is Frank averaged just 2 rebounds a game last year. Kaminsky will need to rebound at a rate befitting a 7-footer. If Ben Brust is the leading rebounder on the season, it is going to be a long year.

Alpha Dog

Sam Dekker – Bear with me. I promise not to make this Ode to Dekker too long and glowing, but make no mistake, he is going to be really, REALLY good. During the team’s annual preseason media day, Bo Ryan offered up this tidbit on Dekker “He’s in the process of really tinkering with being pretty special”. Dekker played 22 minutes a game even with three senior front court players in the starting lineup and eventually found his role as “instant offense” off the bench. There were moments though, like the 10 straight points against Indiana in the Big Ten Conference Tournament Semi Finals where Dekker hinted it was only a matter of time for him to break out as one the conference’s elite players. During the Canada trip, Dekker averaged 19.4 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. As impressive as those numbers are, seeing him in action provided more context on how he controlled play and raised his game at the end. Early on, Dekker played within the offense and didn’t force anything. But with the game on the line in the second half, he took over. Devin Harris was the best I’ve seen in a Badger uniform and he was wired the same way. Run the swing offense, assess the other team early and in crunch time, take over. Thus far Dekker has handled the increased pressure of being the go-to scorer and leader. He’s been more vocal in practice and knows other players are following his lead. Yet when asked what has changed now that this as “his team”, Dekker responded “It should never be anyone’s team. It’s Coach Ryan’s team. This is the University of Wisconsin’s team”. And that quote tells you all you need to know about Sam Dekker.

Until next time, Beer, Brats, and Championships.

- Neal Olson (@olewr7) 

Follow us on Twitter (@WISportsBlog) for up to date news on the Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks, and Golden Eagles. We feature live, in-game commentary, breaking news, previews and post game discussions. Follow the entire Wisconsin Sports Blog writing team on Twitter: @AndrewVrchota, @jheldred, @JoeP_Norton, @olewr7, @Stevie2Westside, and @10iskristin.

March Madness Preview: Wisconsin Badgers

Don’t let anyone convince you the NCAA tournament selection committee lacks a sense of humor. After two(more) statement wins against top 10 teams Michigan and Indiana and falling just short against a third top ten win against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game the Badgers earned a 5 seed in the West Region of the 2013 NCAA tournament. The Badgers will play Ole Miss at 11:40am on Friday March 22. Should they win, a potential 2nd round (technically 3rd round I guess, thanks NCAA marketing geniuses) matchup with Kansa State would mark the third time in six season the Badgers would play Kansas St in their second game of the tournament, although this time as a pseudo home game for K State in Kansas City.

As a preview for what’s to come, the following breakdown will focus on what each player can do best to help the team win (Popeye’s spinach) and what aspect may trip them up (Achilles heel)

Starters

Jared Berggren
   
– Controlling the paint. Jared is a big part of the Badgers championship caliber defense. The school record holder in blocks, his ability to block and affect shots forces opposing teams to frequently settle for jump shots
   

– Foul trouble. A result of challenging nearly every shot in the paint, Bergs has a tendency to pick up fouls in quick succession and find time on the bench. Although Frank Kaminsky has been effective off the bench, he is not nearly the post defender Berggren is.


Ryan Evans
   
– Mid range jump shot. Evans mid-range jumper is so effective he now shoots them as free throws(only half joking). A certain QB playing in Green Bay would appreciate Evans game.

Ahhhhh mid-range.So pretty.
— Aaron Rodgers (@AaronRodgers12) June 6, 2012

   
– Doing too much. Badgers have run into prolonged offensive droughts. As a senior Evans has shown the willingness to shoot the team out of their slump which occasionally leads to forced shots out of his comfort zone.


Mike Bruesewitz
   
– Hustle. Cliché? Yeah, but there’s a reason that moniker has stuck. Bruiser has made his reputation on snagging offensive rebounds and diving for loose balls. Although his hair style is probably a close second.
   
– Foul trouble. Similar to Berggren challenging shots, Bruesewitz will challenge opponents on the defensive end. He’s always a couple of block vs. charge calls away from being in trouble.



Ben Brust
   

– Scoring. Brust is the prototypical streaky shooter. When he’s on, he can hit from anywhere . Lately Brust has added a nice component to his game in curling around high screens and attacking the hoop.

    

– Lengthy defenders. At 6-1 Brust is on the smaller side for shooting guards. Against teams with taller, longer guards (Florida, Michigan State, Ohio State) Brust has struggled at times to find space getting off his shot. 


Traevon Jackson

– Big shot. Trae has shown he knack for taking and making game winning/tying shots. No team makes a deep run into the NCAA tournament without winning a close game; Jackson gives the Badgers a proven go to option at the end of games.


– Focus. Once or twice a game Jackson seems to throw a lazy pass across the top of the key and/or dribbles with no real purpose resulting in a turnover. Jackson must improve focus on ball security throughout the game.



Bench

Sam Dekker

– Instant offense. As evident during his 7 points in 1 minute against Indiana in the Big Ten tournament semifinal game, Dekker has the potential to explode on offense and score in a variety of ways. His outside shot has struggled lately(3-17 over last 5 games) but Dekker has still attacked  the rim attempting the most free throws on the team over the same stretch.

– Defense. Still adjusting to contribute Big Ten caliper defense, Dekker still has lapses defending ball screens and rotating on help defense. This probably cost Dekker 6th man of the year honors in the Big Ten.



George Marshall

– 3 point shooting. Marshall is 3rd on the team in 3pt shooting percentage. Rest assured his quick trigger off the bench will be needed at some point during the tournament if the Badgers hope to advance into the later rounds.



– Defense. As is the case for Dekker, Marshall’s D has not been as good as the starters.



 Frank Kaminsky

– Depth. Having a healthy Frank Kaminsky changes the Badgers significantly. He provides added front court depth should Berg, Bruiser or Evans experience foul trouble. It’s no surprise the Badgers had a mini slump mid-season (L @ Iowa, L v. Mich St. and L @ Ohio St.) when Frank was out with an eye injury.
   

– Defense. See Dekker and Marshall.




Bench Mob

– Unless freshman Zak Showalter gets some late game PT and throws down one of the put back offense rebound dunks he’s become known for in practice, the Bench Mob (lead by seniors Dan Fahey and JD Wise) will have to practice insane reactions/stay back after things like this.


Prediction time

Bo Ryan has made the NCAA tournament in each of the twelve seasons as head coach of the Badgers. In the previous 11 he has failed to make it out of the first round only once (in 2006 the #9 Badgers lost to #8 Arizona). Although Ole Miss guard Marshall Henderson (20.0 points per game) fits the mold of taller, athletic guards  who have given the Badgers trouble this year (particularly DJ Newbill and Jermaine Marshall of Penn State) as well as historically in the NCAA tournament (Stephan Curry/Davidson in 2008) I expect the Badgers will hold Henderson to one of his lower outputs of the season. Badgers rank 11th in the country in 3-point field goal defense and their proven ability to contest all of Henderson’s shots will be the difference in this game.

A potential 2nd round match-up against Kansas State led by familiar face Bruce Weber former coach at Illinois. Bo Ryan owns a 12-9 record against Weber dating back to Weber’s time as head coach in Illinois. Angel Rodriguez and Rodney McGruder are the type of slashing guards that could give the Badgers trouble. However the Wildcats don’t really have anyone capable of handling Ryan Evans in the post, who has done a fine job lately determining when to take bigger, slower defenders off the dribble and posting up against smaller, slighter defenders.

Do not be fooled though, this Badger team has shown a penchant for long scoring droughts this season and has had to be bailed out by championship level defense. Deficiencies of this nature often reappear in the tournament when the stakes are higher. Wisconsin must be careful to avoid offensive deficient stretches to prevent an early departure.

Best Case Scenario - Riding the momentum of the Big Ten tournament, Wisconsin advances to their third consecutive Sweet Sixteen and sneak past an overrated Gonzaga team before bowing out to Ohio State in the regional final.

Worst Case Scenario – hot shooting Marshall Henderson pushes Wisconsin to the brink in round one, but the Badgers prevail on a last second shot. In round two Angel Rodriguez and Rodney McGruder run roughshod and cold shooting sends the Badgers back to Madison

The Badgers have already demonstrated their love of dancing this season, here’s hoping it continues to April.

 

Until next time, Beers, Brats, and Championships.

- Neal Olson (@olewr7)

Follow us on Twitter for up to date news on Brewers, Packers, Badgers, Bucks and more. Live in game commentary, breaking news, previews, and post game discussion. @WISportsBlog @AndrewVrchota, @JoeP_Norton, @SMahon2Go @ryan_937, @Mik3_Schu, @jheldred, @B_Toom_3, and @olewr7. Finally, find us on Instagram! (wisportsblog)